A methodology for long-range prediction of air transportation

A framework and methodology for long term projection of demand for aviation fuels is presented. The approach taken includes two basic components. The first was a new technique for establishing the socio-economic environment within which the future aviation industry is embedded. The concept utilized was a definition of an overall societal objective for the very long run future. Within a framework so defined, a set of scenarios by which the future will unfold are then written. These scenarios provide the determinants of the air transport industry operations and accordingly provide an assessment of future fuel requirements. The second part was the modeling of the industry in terms of an abstracted set of variables to represent the overall industry performance on a macro scale. The model was validated by testing the desired output variables from the model with historical data over the past decades

A study of characteristics of intercity transportation systems. Phase 1: Definition of transportation comparison methodology

Decision making in early transportation planning must be responsive to complex value systems representing various policies and objectives. The assessment of alternative transportation concepts during the early initial phases of the system life cycle, when supportive research and technology development activities are defined, requires estimates of transportation, environmental, and socio-economic impacts throughout the system life cycle, which is a period of some 40 or 50 years. A unified methodological framework for comparing intercity passenger and freight transportation systems is described and is extended to include the comparison of long term transportation trends arising from implementation of the various R & D programs. The attributes of existing and future transportation systems are reviewed in order to establish measures for comparison, define value functions, and attribute weightings needed for comparing alternative policy actions for furthering transportation goals. Comparison criteria definitions and an illustrative example are included

Numerical modelling of the lobes of radio galaxies in cluster environments -- IV. Remnant radio galaxies

© 2019 The Author(s) Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.We examine the remnant phase of radio galaxies using three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of relativistic jets propagating through cluster environments. By switching the jets off once the lobes have reached a certain length we can study how the energy distribution between the lobes and shocked intra-cluster medium compares to that of an active source, as well as calculate synchrotron emission properties of the remnant sources. We see that as a result of disturbed cluster gas beginning to settle back into the initial cluster potential, streams of dense gas are pushed along the jet axis behind the remnant lobes, causing them to rise out of the cluster faster than they would due to buoyancy. This leads to increased adiabatic losses and a rapid dimming. The rapid decay of total flux density and surface brightness may explain the small number of remnant sources found in samples with a high flux density limit and may cause analytic models to overestimate the remnant fraction expected in sensitive surveys such as those now being carried out with LOFAR.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Image-Processing Techniques for the Creation of Presentation-Quality Astronomical Images

The quality of modern astronomical data, the power of modern computers and the agility of current image-processing software enable the creation of high-quality images in a purely digital form. The combination of these technological advancements has created a new ability to make color astronomical images. And in many ways it has led to a new philosophy towards how to create them. A practical guide is presented on how to generate astronomical images from research data with powerful image-processing programs. These programs use a layering metaphor that allows for an unlimited number of astronomical datasets to be combined in any desired color scheme, creating an immense parameter space to be explored using an iterative approach. Several examples of image creation are presented. A philosophy is also presented on how to use color and composition to create images that simultaneously highlight scientific detail and are aesthetically appealing. This philosophy is necessary because most datasets do not correspond to the wavelength range of sensitivity of the human eye. The use of visual grammar, defined as the elements which affect the interpretation of an image, can maximize the richness and detail in an image while maintaining scientific accuracy. By properly using visual grammar, one can imply qualities that a two-dimensional image intrinsically cannot show, such as depth, motion and energy. In addition, composition can be used to engage viewers and keep them interested for a longer period of time. The use of these techniques can result in a striking image that will effectively convey the science within the image, to scientists and to the public.Comment: 104 pages, 38 figures, submitted to A

Dimpling process in cold roll metal forming by finite element modelling and experimental validation

The dimpling process is a novel cold-roll forming process that involves dimpling of a rolled flat strip prior to the roll forming operation. This is a process undertaken to enhance the material properties and subsequent products’ structural performance while maintaining a minimum strip thickness. In order to understand the complex and interrelated nonlinear changes in contact, geometry and material properties that occur in the process, it is necessary to accurately simulate the process and validate through physical tests. In this paper, 3D non-linear finite element analysis was employed to simulate the dimpling process and mechanical testing of the subsequent dimpled sheets, in which the dimple geometry and material properties data were directly transferred from the dimpling process. Physical measurements, tensile and bending tests on dimpled sheet steel were conducted to evaluate the simulation results. Simulation of the dimpling process identified the amount of non-uniform plastic strain introduced and the manner in which this was distributed through the sheet. The plastic strain resulted in strain hardening which could correlate to the increase in the strength of the dimpled steel when compared to plain steel originating from the same coil material. A parametric study revealed that the amount of plastic strain depends upon on the process parameters such as friction and overlapping gap between the two forming rolls. The results derived from simulations of the tensile and bending tests were in good agreement with the experimental ones. The validation indicates that the finite element analysis was able to successfully simulate the dimpling process and mechanical properties of the subsequent dimpled steel products

Driven Intrinsic Localized Modes in a Coupled Pendulum Array

Intrinsic localized modes (ILMs), also called discrete breathers, are directly generated via modulational instability in an array of coupled pendulums. These ILMs can be stabilized over a range of driver frequencies and amplitudes. They are characterized by a pi-phase difference between their center and wings. At higher driver frequencies, these ILMs are observed to disintegrate via a pulsating instability, and the mechanism of this breather instability is investigated.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figure

Microphysical simulations of sulfur burdens from stratospheric sulfur geoengineering

Recent microphysical studies suggest that geoengineering by continuous stratospheric injection of SO<sub>2</sub> gas may be limited by the growth of the aerosols. We study the efficacy of SO<sub>2</sub>, H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> and aerosol injections on aerosol mass and optical depth using a three-dimensional general circulation model with sulfur chemistry and sectional aerosol microphysics (WACCM/CARMA). We find increasing injection rates of SO<sub>2</sub> in a narrow band around the equator to have limited efficacy while broadening the injecting zone as well as injecting particles instead of SO<sub>2</sub> gas increases the sulfate burden for a given injection rate, in agreement with previous work. We find that injecting H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> gas instead of SO<sub>2</sub> does not discernibly alter sulfate size or mass, in contrast with a previous study using a plume model with a microphysical model. However, the physics and chemistry in aircraft plumes, which are smaller than climate model grid cells, need to be more carefully considered. We also find significant perturbations to tropospheric aerosol for all injections studied, particularly in the upper troposphere and near the poles, where sulfate burden increases by up to 100 times. This enhanced burden could have implications for tropospheric radiative forcing and chemistry. These results highlight the need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions rather than attempt to cool the planet through geoengineering, and to further study geoengineering before it can be seriously considered as a climate intervention option

Rings and Jets around PSR J2021+3651: the `Dragonfly Nebula'

We describe recent Chandra ACIS observations of the Vela-like pulsar PSR J2021+3651 and its pulsar wind nebula (PWN). This `Dragonfly Nebula' displays an axisymmetric morphology, with bright inner jets, a double-ridged inner nebula, and a ~30" polar jet. The PWN is embedded in faint diffuse emission: a bow shock-like structure with standoff ~1' brackets the pulsar to the east and emission trails off westward for 3-4'. Thermal (kT=0.16 +/-0.02 keV) and power law emission are detected from the pulsar. The nebular X-rays show spectral steepening from Gamma=1.5 in the equatorial torus to Gamma=1.9 in the outer nebula, suggesting synchrotron burn-off. A fit to the `Dragonfly' structure suggests a large (86 +/-1 degree) inclination with a double equatorial torus. Vela is currently the only other PWN showing such double structure. The >12 kpc distance implied by the pulsar dispersion measure is not supported by the X-ray data; spectral, scale and efficiency arguments suggest a more modest 3-4 kpc.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables, Accepted to Ap

Critical Texts: Issues of Knowledge, Power and Discourse in Researching Gender and Learning

We explore our academic labour on a State of the Field Review on Gender and Adult Learning for a government funded educational body. Using poststructuralism as our theoretical background, and a critically reflexive framework as our method, we examine the research process