Statistical Analysis Of A Compound Power-Law Model For Repairable Systems

Conclusions - A compound (mixed) Poisson distribution is sometimes used as an alternative to the Poisson distribution for count data. Such a compound distribution, which has a negative binomial form, occurs when the population consists of Poisson distributed individuals, but with intensities which have a gamma distribution. A similar situation can occur with a repairable system when failure intensities of each system are different. A more general situation is considered where the system failures are distributed according to nonhomogeneous Poisson processes having Power Law intensity functions with gamma distributed intensity parameter. If the failures of each system in a population of repairable systems are distributed according to a Power Law process, but with different intensities, then a compound Power Law process provides a suitable model. A test, based on the ratio of the sample variance to the sample mean of count data from s-independent systems, provides a convenient way to determine if a compound model is appropriate. When a compound Power Law model is indicated, the maximum likelihood estimates of the shape parameters of the individual systems can be computed and homogeneity can be tested. If equality of the shape parameters is indicated, then it is possible to test whether the systems are homogeneous Poisson processes versus a nonhomogeneous alternative. If deterioration within systems is suspected, then the alternative in which the shape parameter exceeds unity would be appropriate, while if systems are undergoing reliability growth the alternative would be that the shape parameter is less than unity. The other parameters can also be estimated by maximum likelihood. If the test for a compound Power Law model does not reject, then the joint maximum likelihood estimates of the compound model may be unstable, or may even fail to exist, except possibly in a specified limiting sense. When this happens, an ordinary Power Law process provides a more reasonable model. Of course, this would also include the possibility of the simpler homogeneous Poisson process. Copyright © 1987 by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc

Sequential Probability Ratio Tests For The Shape Parameter Of A Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process

Sequential probability ratio tests for the shape parameter of one or more nonhomogeneous Poisson processes, with power intensity functions, are provided. The tests can be performed when the scale parameter is an unknown nuisance parameter; the effective loss of not knowing the scale parameter is one observation per process. The resulting tests can be expressed in terms of the maximum likelihood estimators of the shape parameters for the usual fixed sample procedure. A further advantage of the present approach is that the scale parameters for different processes, in the multiple sample procedures, need not be equal. Approximations for the operating characteristic function and the average sample number are provided. Copyright © 1982 by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc

On The Mean Time Between Failures For Repairable Systems

Much of the recent work on modeling repairable systems involves Poisson processes with nonconstant intensity functions, viz, nonhomogeneous Poisson processes. Since times between failures are not identically distributed when the process is nonhomogeneous, it is not clear what concept should take the place of the mean time between failures in assessing the reliability of a repairable system. A number of alternate concepts can be found in the literature. We investigate the relationship between two of the most frequently considered alternatives: the reciprocal of the intensity function, and the mean waiting time from t until the next failure. Theorem 1 states a necessary and sufficient condition for the mean time until the next failure to be asymptotically proportional to the reciprocal of the intensity function. Some examples, including the familiar log-linear and power-intensity processes satisfy this condition. A monotonicity property is also established between these two concepts which could be used to obtain conservative statistical confidence limits for the mean time until the next failure, based on results which are already available for the intensity function of the power-intensity process. However, further study of concepts such as the rate of convergence would be needed in order to determine the degree of approximation of the nominal confidence level to the actual level. Until more is known about the mean time from t until the next failure, it would be advisable to use the reciprocal of the intensity function, which has been studied more extensively, as the basis of reliability assessment for a repairable system. Copyright © 1986 by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc

The Economic Impact of Olympic Games: Effects of Host Country Announcements on Stock Market Returns

Roughly seven years before an Olympic Games, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) accepts bids from countries to host an Olympics. Subsequently, the IOC determines and announces to the world who has won (and lost) the right to host. Contrary to prior evidence, we find the announcements do not affect the bidding countries’ stock markets. We complement prior studies by including additional, more recent, years of announcements, by investigating whether there are effects prior to the announcement, and by testing for an effect both parametrically and non-parametrically

Tests For Positive Jumps In The Intensity Of A Poisson Process: A Power Study

Tests are considered for the hypothesis of a constant intensity against the alternative of an intensity which increases with time in a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Attention is focused on step-function alternatives and tests designed for such alternatives. One application is testing for abrupt changes in equipment following scheduled overhauls. The authors recommend the order-restricted likelihood-ratio test over an ordered chi-square test for such situations, provided the points at which jumps can occur are known. Otherwise, they recommend the test based on the Laplace statistic. The performance of these tests is evaluated for smooth alternatives, with the result that the smallest relative power of the order-restricted likelihood-ratio test is 73%, while for the Laplace test it is 82%. A numerical example based on failure times for a main-propulsion diesel engine is presented. The result is that the order-restricted likelihood-ratio test corresponds to the lowest statistical significance level

Redesigning Large-Scale Multimodal Transit Networks with Shared Autonomous Mobility Services

Public transit systems have faced challenges and opportunities from emerging Shared Autonomous Mobility Services (SAMS). This study addresses a city-scale multimodal transit network design problem, with shared autonomous vehicles as both transit feeders and a direct interzonal mode. The framework captures spatial demand and modal characteristics, considers intermodal transfers and express services, determines transit infrastructure investment and path flows, and designs transit routes. A system-optimal multimodal transit network is designed with minimum total door-to-door generalized costs of users and operators, while satisfying existing transit origin-destination demand within a pre-set infrastructure budget. Firstly, the geography, demand, and modes in each clustered zone are characterized with continuous approximation. Afterward, the decisions of network link investment and multimodal path flows in zonal connection optimization are formulated as a minimum-cost multi-commodity network flow (MCNF) problem and solved efficiently with a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) solver. Subsequently, the route generation problem is solved by expanding the MCNF formulation to minimize intramodal transfers. To demonstrate the framework efficiency, this study uses transit demand from the Chicago metropolitan area to redesign a multimodal transit network. The computational results present savings in travelers' journey time and operators' costs, demonstrating the potential benefits of collaboration between multimodal transit systems and SAMS.Comment: 44 pages, 15 figures, under review for the 25th International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory (ISTTT25

Bovine neutrophil chemotaxis to Listeria monocytogenes in neurolisteriosis depends on microglia-released rather than bacterial factors.

BACKGROUND Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) is a bacterial pathogen of major concern for humans and ruminants due to its neuroinvasive potential and its ability to cause deadly encephalitis (neurolisteriosis). On one hand, polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMN) are key players in the defense against Lm, but on the other hand intracerebral infiltration with PMN is associated with significant neural tissue damage. Lm-PMN interactions in neurolisteriosis are poorly investigated, and factors inducing PMN chemotaxis to infectious foci containing Lm in the central nervous system (CNS) remain unidentified. METHODS In this study, we assessed bovine PMN chemotaxis towards Lm and supernatants of infected endogenous brain cell populations in ex vivo chemotaxis assays, to identify chemotactic stimuli for PMN chemotaxis towards Lm in the brain. In addition, microglial secretion of IL-8 was assessed both ex vivo and in situ. RESULTS Our data show that neither Lm cell wall components nor intact bacteria elicit chemotaxis of bovine PMN ex vivo. Moreover, astrocytes and neural cells fail to induce bovine PMN chemotaxis upon infection. In contrast, supernatant from Lm infected microglia readily induced chemotaxis of bovine PMN. Microglial expression and secretion of IL-8 was identified during early Lm infection in vitro and in situ, although IL-8 blocking with a specific antibody could not abrogate PMN chemotaxis towards Lm infected microglial supernatant. CONCLUSIONS These data provide evidence that host-derived rather than bacterial factors trigger PMN chemotaxis to bacterial foci in the CNS, that microglia have a primary role as initiators of bovine PMN chemotaxis into the brain during neurolisteriosis and that blockade of these factors could be a therapeutic target to limit intrathecal PMN chemotaxis and PMN associated damage in neurolisteriosis

Detector Systems Engineering for Extremely Large Instruments

The scientific detector systems for the ESO ELT first-light instruments, HARMONI, MICADO, and METIS, together will require 27 science detectors: seventeen 2.5 $\mu$m cutoff H4RG-15 detectors, four 4K x 4K 231-84 CCDs, five 5.3 $\mu$m cutoff H2RG detectors, and one 13.5 $\mu$m cutoff GEOSNAP detector. This challenging program of scientific detector system development covers everything from designing and producing state-of-the-art detector control and readout electronics, to developing new detector characterization techniques in the lab, to performance modeling and final system verification. We report briefly on the current design of these detector systems and developments underway to meet the challenging scientific performance goals of the ELT instruments.Comment: Proceedings of the SPIE Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation Conference 202

Pharmacological Modulation of the Psychiatric Risk Factor FKBP51 Alters Efficiency of Common Antidepressant Drugs

Despite a growing body of research over the last few decades, mental disorders, including anxiety disorders or depression, are still one of the most prevalent and hardest to treat health burdens worldwide. Since pharmacological treatment with a single drug is often rather ineffective, approaches such as co-medication with functionally diverse antidepressants (ADs) have been discussed and tried more recently. Besides classical ADs, there is a growing number of candidate targets identified as potential starting points for new treatment methods. One of these candidates, the FK506 binding protein 51 (FKBP51) is linked to a number of psychiatric disorders in humans. In this study, we used SAFit2-a newly developed modulator of FKBP51, which has shown promising results in rodent models for stress-related disorders delivered in a depot formulation. We combined SAFit2 with the commonly prescribed selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) escitalopram and performed basic behavioral characterization in a mouse model. Remarkably, co-application of SAFit2 lowered the efficacy of escitalopram in anxiety-related tests but improved stress coping behavior. Given the fact that mental diseases such as anxiety disorders or depression can be divided into different sub-categories, some of which more or less prone to stress, SAFit2 could indeed be a highly beneficial co-medication in very specific cases. This study could be a first, promising step towards the use of FKBP51 modulators as potent and specific enhancers of AD efficiency for subclasses of patients in the future