Prediction of hazardous Columbia River bar conditions

In this study methods were developed for the prediction of wave conditions that are hazardous to navigation at river entrances, with emphasis on applicability to the Columbia River. There are two basic components to the prediction system: (1) a semi-automated spectral method for forecasting the significant height and average period of waves in deep water, and (2) an index of navigation hazard at river entrances that depends on the significant height and average period in deep water and on the mean current and water depth at the entrance. The computerized, deep water forecast method is a hybrid scheme that combines the spectral principles of the Pierson-Neumann-James method with the graphical input techniques of Wilson and the fetch limited spectrum of Liu. The significant heights generated by the method are well verified by winter wave measurements at Newport, Oregon. The hazard index is based on the probability of wave-breaking in water of arbitrary depth and current. The breaking probability is derived under the assumption that wave heights and squared periods are statistically independent and distributed according to a Rayleigh probability density function. The breaking-wave probability and the hazard index depend on the wave steepness in deep slack water and on the depth (relative to the wave period squared) and current (relative to the period) at the river entrance. The dependence on depth and current is achieved in two ways: (1) the limiting steepness (breaking index) k found as a function of relative depth and relative current, and (2) the wave spectrum in water of arbitrary depth and current is found by transformation of the spectrum in deep slack water. The transformation is performed by requiring that the rate of wave energy propagation remain constant. The hazard index is closely related to the probability of breaking swell. At water depths that are typical of river entrances, the hazard index depends strongly on the significant wave height, mean current and depth, but only weakly on the mean wave period (since the breaking height of swell at such depths is only weakly dependent on period). Hindcasts of deep water significant wave heights and hazard indices compared reasonably well with measured heights and Columbia River bar closure periods. Forecasts based on accurate prognostic weather charts should provide similar results

Spring 1968

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The response of the coastal ocean to strong offshore winds: With application to circulations in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo

Two ocean models are used to investigate the response of the coastal ocean to strong offshore winds: a linear 1½-layer model, and a nonlinear 1½-layer model that allows entrainment of cool water into the surface layer. The models are forced by wind stress fields similar in structure to the intense winter-time, mountain-pass jets (∼20 dyne/cm2) that appear in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo for periods of 3–10 days. Solutions are arranged in a hierarchy of increasing dynamical complexity, in order to illustrate the important physical processes. They compare favorably with observations in several ways. Some properties of solutions are the following. While the wind strengthens there is an ageostrophic current (not Ekman drift) that is directed offshore. This offshore drift forces coastal upwelling, thereby lowering the local sea level and sea surface temperature (SST). Although the drop in sea level at the coast can be large and rapid (of the order of 20 cm at the peak of a wind event), none of this signal propagates poleward as a coastally trapped wave. While the wind weakens the ageostrophic current is directed onshore, and consequently the coastal ocean readjusts toward its initial state. Throughout the wind event, cyclonic and anticyclonic gyres spin up offshore on either side of the jet axis due to Ekman pumping. Entrainment cools SST offshore, on and to the right (looking onshore) of the jet axis, and virtually eliminates the cyclonic gyre. The advection terms intensify the anticyclonic gyre and give it a more circular shape. After a wind event, the anticyclonic gyre propagates westward due to β. Its propagation speed is enhanced over that of a linear Rossby wave due to the nonlinear terms associated with the increased layer thickness at the center of the gyre and with the divergence of momentum flux

The development of forecast techniques for wave and surf conditions over the bars in the Columbia River Mouth and at the entrance to Yaquina Bay : final report

This investigation has been carried out primarily to define the Columbia River bar crossing problem, to determine the physical factors involved in hazardous transit developments, and to develop a method for predicting hazardous bar transit conditions sufficiently in advance to allow proper safety precautions to be effected. Actual records of periods of bar closure for the years 1963 - 1969, as determined by the Columbia River Bar Pilots Association, provide a firm foundation for the entry into this study. Meteorological and oceanographic conditions leading to the closures, as well as those occurring during periods of closure, are being analyzed to identify the more immediate causes for such situations and also to determine the nature of their temporal and spatial evolution. Much of the background material necessary for this study has been compiled, and case histories on conditions leading to closure circumstances are being prepared to determine the various types of situation development

Discrete Rainfall Predictability Using El Niño/Southern Oscillation Interaction

The objective of the study was to determine the probability of occurrence of wet or dry season events, based on the phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon using multinomial logit regression models. The study used monthly time series of the Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST), a sea level pressure index (SOI) and rainfall anomalies over a 2.5x2.5 degrees grid along the west coast of Central and South America, for latitudes starting at 25N, through 45S, since 1951 to 2011. We defined an ENSO index (NSO) as predictor and rainfall as response. Data was categorized into terciles to construct non symmetrical three way contingency table. As results, we generated latitudinal profiles of the predictability (association), for the West Coast of Central and South America, using ENSO as predictor.Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-A7-002]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[808-A9-180]/UCR/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR

Natural variability of surface oceanographic conditions in the offshore Gulf of Mexico

AbstractThis work characterizes patterns of temporal variability in surface waters of the central Gulf of Mexico. We examine remote-sensing based observations of sea surface temperature (SST), wind speed, sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) and Net Primary Production (NPP), along with model predictions of mixed layer depth (MLD), to determine seasonal changes and long-term trends in the central Gulf of Mexico between the early 1980s and 2012. Specifically, we examine variability in four quadrants of the Gulf of Mexico (water depth >1000m). All variables show strong seasonality. Chl-a and NPP show positive anomalies in response to short-term increases in wind speed and to cold temperature events. The depth of the mixed layer (MLD) directly and significantly affects primary productivity throughout the region. This relationship is sufficiently robust to enable real-time estimates of MLD based on satellite-based estimates of NPP. Over the past 15–20years, SST, wind speed, and SSHA show a statistically significant, gradual increase. However, Chl-a and NPP show no significant trends over this period. There has also been no trend in the MLD in the Gulf of Mexico interior. The positive long-term trend in wind speed and SST anomalies is consistent with the warming phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) that started in the mid-90s. This also coincides with a negative trend in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) related to an increase in the frequency of cooler ENSO events since 1999–2000. The results suggest that over decadal scales, increasing temperature, wind speed, and mesoscale ocean activity have offsetting effects on the MLD. The lack of a trend in MLD anomalies over the past 20years explains the lack of long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration and productivity over this period in the Gulf. Understanding the background of seasonal and long-term variability in these ocean characteristics is important to interpret changes in ocean health due to episodic natural and anthropogenic events and long term climate changes or development activities. With this analysis we provide a baseline against which such changes can be measured

A compilation of observations from moored current meters. Vol. 12. Wind currents and temperature over the continental shelf and slope off Peru during JOINT II, March 1976-May 1977

Oregon State University installed and recovered moorings along the coast of Peru during the period late March 1976 through mid-May 1977. A mid-shelf mooring near 15°S (MILA) was maintained for the full duration of the experiment, through five successive installations. This site was complemented by six other moorings in the first half of 1976 and by nine in the March-April-May 1977 period. These simultaneous moorings were arranged in onshore-offshore arrays near 15°S and in alongshore arrays at midshelf from 10°S to 15°30'S. The data described in this report consists of the hourly processed and filtered values of wind and current velocity, air and water temperature, and pressure from the 1976-1977 Peru installations. We describe the data through installation summaries, statistics tables, progressive vector diagrams, speed and direction histograms, rotary spectra and time series plots

Discrete analysis for the America west coast rainfall predictability using El Niño/Southern Oscillation relationships

poster -- Universidad de Costa Rica. Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas, 2013. Sugerencia para referencias: - Cid, L., S. Ramírez, E. Alfaro & D. Enfield, 2013. Discrete analysis for the America west coast rainfall predictability using El Niño/Southern Oscillation relationships. Memorias del 3er Congreso de Oceanografía Física, Meteorología y Clima del Pacífico Suroriental. Sesión de Variabilidad Climática (poster VC.P3). Santiago, Chile. 16-18 de octubre de 2013.The objective of the study was to determine the probability of occurrence of wet or dry season events, based on the phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon using multinomial response logit and logit regression models. The study used monthly time series of the Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST), a sea level pressure index (SOI) and rainfall anomalies over a 2.5x2.5 degrees grid along the west coast of Central and South America, for latitudes starting at 25°N, through 45°S, since 1951 to 2011. An ENSO index (NSO) was defined as predictor and rainfall as response. Series were first transformed into trimesters, replacing data by the three months average of the seasons DJF – MAM –JJA - SON. Data was categorized into terciles to construct non symmetrical three way contingency tables, including a time lagged categorization of the predictor variable (NSO). Two types of latitudinal profiles of the predictability (association), for the West Coast of Central and South America, using ENSO as predictor were generated as results. One using the categorized NSO index, using a multinomial response logit model to estimate the probabilities at the corners, of the contingency tables, representing the chances of extreme events of rainfall, given the El Niño and La Niña events and a second using multinomial response logit regression models, to estimate the same rainfall events, but using the NSO as a continuous predictor in which the NSO index was used as continuous predictor. The analysis was performed for all the contingency tables, particularly for the “corner cells” and the results were plotted as latitudinal profiles.Universidad de Costa Rica, IPGH, IAI, FI&FUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI

Southeast Asian diversity: first insights into the complex mtDNA structure of Laos

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Vast migrations and subsequent assimilation processes have shaped the genetic composition of Southeast Asia, an area of close contact between several major ethnic groups. To better characterize the genetic variation of this region, we analyzed the entire mtDNA control region of 214 unrelated donors from Laos according to highest forensic quality standards. To detail the phylogeny, we inspected selected SNPs from the mtDNA coding region. For <it>a posteriori </it>data quality control, quasi-median network constructions and autosomal STR typing were performed. In order to describe the mtDNA setup of Laos more thoroughly, the data were subjected to population genetic comparisons with 16 East Asian groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The Laos sample exhibited ample mtDNA diversity, reflecting the huge number of ethnic groups listed. We found several new, so far undescribed mtDNA lineages in this dataset and surrounding populations. The Laos population was characteristic in terms of haplotype composition and genetic structure, however, genetic comparisons with other Southeast Asian populations revealed limited, but significant genetic differentiation. Notable differences in the maternal relationship to the major indigenous Southeast Asian ethnolinguistic groups were detected.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this study, we portray the great mtDNA variety of Laos for the first time. Our findings will contribute to clarify the migration history of the region. They encourage setting up regional and subpopulation databases, especially for forensic applications. The Laotian sequences will be incorporated into the collaborative EMPOP mtDNA database <url>http://www.empop.org</url> upon publication and will be available as the first mtDNA reference data for this country.</p

Antibodies against endogenous retroviruses promote lung cancer immunotherapy

B cells are frequently found in the margins of solid tumours as organized follicles in ectopic lymphoid organs called tertiary lymphoid structures (TLS)$^{1,2}$. Although TLS have been found to correlate with improved patient survival and response to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB), the underlying mechanisms of this association remain elusive$^{1,2}$. Here we investigate lung-resident B cell responses in patients from the TRACERx 421 (Tracking Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Evolution Through Therapy) and other lung cancer cohorts, and in a recently established immunogenic mouse model for lung adenocarcinoma$^{3}$. We find that both human and mouse lung adenocarcinomas elicit local germinal centre responses and tumour-binding antibodies, and further identify endogenous retrovirus (ERV) envelope glycoproteins as a dominant anti-tumour antibody target. ERV-targeting B cell responses are amplified by ICB in both humans and mice, and by targeted inhibition of KRAS(G12C) in the mouse model. ERV-reactive antibodies exert anti-tumour activity that extends survival in the mouse model, and ERV expression predicts the outcome of ICB in human lung adenocarcinoma. Finally, we find that effective immunotherapy in the mouse model requires CXCL13-dependent TLS formation. Conversely, therapeutic CXCL13 treatment potentiates anti-tumour immunity and synergizes with ICB. Our findings provide a possible mechanistic basis for the association of TLS with immunotherapy response