Duration of Supplemental Oxygen Requirement and Predictors in Severe COVID-19 Patients in Ethiopia: A Survival Analysis

BACKGROUND፡ With the rising number of new cases of COVID-19, understanding the oxygen requirement of severe patients assists in identifying at risk groups and in making an informed decision on building hospitals capacity in terms of oxygen facility arrangement. Therefore, the study aimed to estimate time to getting off supplemental oxygen therapy and identify predictors among COVID-19 patients admitted to Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia.METHODS: A prospective observational study was conducted among 244 consecutively admitted COVID-19 patients from July to September, 2020. Kaplan Meier plots, median survival times and Log-rank test were used to describe the data and compare survival distribution between groups. Cox proportional hazard survival model was used to identify determinants of time to getting off supplemental oxygen therapy, where hazard ratio (HR), Pvalue and 95%CI for HR were used for testing significance and interpretation of results.RESULTS: Median time to getting off supplemental oxygen therapy among the studied population was 6 days (IQR,4.3-20.0). Factors that affect time to getting off supplemental oxygen therapy were age group (AHR=0.52,95%CI=0.32,0.84, pvalue=0.008 for ≥70 years) and shortness of breath (AHR=0.71,95%CI=0.52,0.96, p-value=0.026).CONCLUSION: Average duration of supplemental oxygen therapy requirement among COVID-19 patients was 6 days and being 70 years and older and having shortness of breath were found to be associated with prolonged duration of supplemental oxygen therapy requirement. This result can be used as a guide in planning institutional resource allocation and patient management to provide a well-equipped care to prevent complications and death from the disease

Laboratory biomarkers of COVID-19 disease severity and outcome: Findings from a developing country.

AimTo identify laboratory biomarkers that predict disease severity and outcome among COVID-19 patients admitted to the Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted among 429 COVID-19 patients who were on follow up from July to October 2020. Data was described using frequency tables. Robust Poisson regression model was used to identify predictors of COVID-19 severity where adjusted relative risk (ARR), P-value and 95 CI for ARR were used to test significance. Binary Logistic regression model was used to assess the presence of statistically significant association between the explanatory variables and COVID-19 outcome where adjusted odds ratio (AOR), P-value and 95%CI for AOR were used for testing significance.ResultsAmong the 429 patients studied, 182 (42.4%) had Severe disease at admission and the rest 247 (57.6%) had Non-severe disease. Regarding disease outcome, 45 (10.5%) died and 384 (89.5%) were discharged alive. Age group (ARR = 1.779, 95%CI = 1.405-2.252, p-value ConclusionsAssessing and monitoring the laboratory markers of WBC, NLR, SGOT, sodium and potassium levels at the earliest stage of the disease could have a considerable role in halting disease progression and death

Characteristics and outcome profile of hospitalized African patients with COVID-19: The Ethiopian context.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic seems to have a different picture in Africa; the first case was identified in the continent after it had already caused a significant loss to the rest of the world and the reported number of cases and mortality rate has been low. Understanding the characteristics and outcome of the pandemic in the African setup is therefore crucial.AimTo assess the characteristics and outcome of Patients with COVID-19 and to identify determinants of the disease outcome among patients admitted to Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia.MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted among 1345 consecutively admitted RT-PCR confirmed Patients with COVID-19 from July to September, 2020. Frequency tables, KM plots, median survival times and Log-rank test were used to describe the data and compare survival distribution between groups. Cox proportional hazard survival model was used to identify determinants of time to clinical recovery and the independent variables, where adjusted hazard ratio, P-value and 95% CI for adjusted hazard ratio were used for testing significance and interpretation of results. Binary logistic regression model was used to assess the presence of a statistically significant association between disease outcome and the independent variables, where adjusted odds ratio, P-value and 95% CI for adjusted odds ratio were used for testing significance and interpretation of results.ResultsAmong the study population, 71 (5.3%) died, 72 (5.4%) were transferred and the rest 1202 (89.4%) were clinically improved. The median time to clinical recovery was 14 days. On the multivariable Cox proportional hazard model; temperature (AHR = 1.135, 95% CI = 1.011, 1.274, p-value = 0.032), COVID-19 severity (AHR = 0.660, 95% CI = 0.501, 0.869, p-value = 0.003), and cough (AHR = 0.705, 95% CI = 0.519, 0.959, p-value = 0.026) were found to be significant determinants of time to clinical recovery. On the binary logistic regression, the following factors were found to be significantly associated with disease outcome; SPO2 (AOR = 0.302, 95% CI = 0.193, 0.474, p-value = 0.0001), shortness of breath (AOR = 0.354, 95% CI = 0.213, 0.590, p-value = 0.0001) and diabetes mellitus (AOR = 0.549, 95% CI = 0.337, 0.894, p-value = 0.016).ConclusionsThe average duration of time to clinical recovery was 14 days and 89.4% of the patients achieved clinical recovery. The mortality rate of the studied population is lower than reports from other countries including those in Africa. Having severe COVID-19 disease severity and presenting with cough were found to be associated with delayed clinical recovery of the disease. On the other hand, being hyperthermic is associated with shorter disease duration (faster time to clinical recovery). In addition, lower oxygen saturation, subjective complaint of shortness of breath and being diabetic were associated with unfavorable disease outcome. Therefore, patients with these factors should be followed cautiously for a better outcome