Forecasting the mortality burden of coronary heart disease and stroke in Germany: National trends and regional inequalities.

BackgroundThe decline of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has slowed in many countries, including Germany. We examined the implications of this trend for future coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in Germany considering persistent mortality inequalities between former East and West Germany.MethodsWe retrieved demographic and mortality data from 1991 to 2019 from the German Federal Statistical Office. Using a Bayesian age-period-cohort framework, we projected CHD and stroke mortality from 2019 to 2035, stratified by sex and German region. We decomposed annual changes in deaths into three components (mortality rates, population age structure and population size) and assessed regional inequalities with age-sex-standardized mortality ratios.ResultsWe confirmed that declines of CVD mortality rates in Germany will likely stagnate. From 2019 to 2035, we projected fewer annual CHD deaths (114,600 to 103,500 [95%-credible interval: 81,700; 134,000]) and an increase in stroke deaths (51,300 to 53,700 [41,400; 72,000]). Decomposing past and projected mortality, we showed that population ageing was and is offset by declining mortality rates. This likely reverses after 2030 leading to increased CVD deaths thereafter. Inequalities between East and West declined substantially since 1991 and are projected to stabilize for CHD but narrow for stroke.ConclusionsCVD deaths in Germany likely keep declining until 2030, but may increase thereafter due to population ageing if the reduction in mortality rates slows further. East-West mortality inequalities for CHD remain stable but may converge for stroke. Underlying risk factor trends need to be monitored and addressed by public health policy

Projected health and economic impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Germany: A cross-validation modelling study.

BackgroundTaxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been implemented globally to reduce the burden of cardiometabolic diseases by disincentivizing consumption through increased prices (e.g., 1 peso/litre tax in Mexico) or incentivizing industry reformulation to reduce SSB sugar content (e.g., tiered structure of the United Kingdom [UK] Soft Drinks Industry Levy [SDIL]). In Germany, where no tax on SSBs is enacted, the health and economic impact of SSB taxation using the experience from internationally implemented tax designs has not been evaluated. The objective of this study was to estimate the health and economic impact of national SSBs taxation scenarios in Germany.Methods and findingsIn this modelling study, we evaluated a 20% ad valorem SSB tax with/without taxation of fruit juice (based on implemented SSB taxes and recommendations) and a tiered tax (based on the UK SDIL) in the German adult population aged 30 to 90 years from 2023 to 2043. We developed a microsimulation model (IMPACTNCD Germany) that captures the demographics, risk factor profile and epidemiology of type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in the German population using the best available evidence and national data. For each scenario, we estimated changes in sugar consumption and associated weight change. Resulting cases of cardiometabolic disease prevented/postponed and related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and economic impacts from healthcare (medical costs) and societal (medical, patient time, and productivity costs) perspectives were estimated using national cost and health utility data. Additionally, we assessed structural uncertainty regarding direct, body mass index (BMI)-independent cardiometabolic effects of SSBs and cross-validated results with an independently developed cohort model (PRIMEtime). We found that SSB taxation could reduce sugar intake in the German adult population by 1 g/day (95%-uncertainty interval [0.05, 1.65]) for a 20% ad valorem tax on SSBs leading to reduced consumption through increased prices (pass-through of 82%) and 2.34 g/day (95%-UI [2.32, 2.36]) for a tiered tax on SSBs leading to 30% reduction in SSB sugar content via reformulation. Through reductions in obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD), 106,000 (95%-UI [57,200, 153,200]) QALYs could be gained with a 20% ad valorem tax and 192,300 (95%-UI [130,100, 254,200]) QALYs with a tiered tax. Respectively, €9.6 billion (95%-UI [4.7, 15.3]) and €16.0 billion (95%-UI [8.1, 25.5]) costs could be saved from a societal perspective over 20 years. Impacts of the 20% ad valorem tax were larger when additionally taxing fruit juice (252,400 QALYs gained, 95%-UI [176,700, 325,800]; €11.8 billion costs saved, 95%-UI [€6.7, €17.9]), but impacts of all scenarios were reduced when excluding direct health effects of SSBs. Cross-validation with PRIMEtime showed similar results. Limitations include remaining uncertainties in the economic and epidemiological evidence and a lack of product-level data.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that SSB taxation in Germany could help to reduce the national burden of noncommunicable diseases and save a substantial amount of societal costs. A tiered tax designed to incentivize reformulation of SSBs towards less sugar might have a larger population-level health and economic impact than an ad valorem tax that incentivizes consumer behaviour change only through increased prices

International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review

BACKGROUND: In late 2019, the first cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) were reported in Wuhan, China, followed by a worldwide spread. Numerous countries have implemented control measures related to international travel, including border closures, travel restrictions, screening at borders, and quarantine of travellers. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of international travel‐related control measures during the COVID‐19 pandemic on infectious disease transmission and screening‐related outcomes. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase and COVID‐19‐specific databases, including the Cochrane COVID‐19 Study Register and the WHO Global Database on COVID‐19 Research to 13 November 2020. SELECTION CRITERIA: We considered experimental, quasi‐experimental, observational and modelling studies assessing the effects of travel‐related control measures affecting human travel across international borders during the COVID‐19 pandemic. In the original review, we also considered evidence on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). In this version we decided to focus on COVID‐19 evidence only. Primary outcome categories were (i) cases avoided, (ii) cases detected, and (iii) a shift in epidemic development. Secondary outcomes were other infectious disease transmission outcomes, healthcare utilisation, resource requirements and adverse effects if identified in studies assessing at least one primary outcome. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened titles and abstracts and subsequently full texts. For studies included in the analysis, one review author extracted data and appraised the study. At least one additional review author checked for correctness of data. To assess the risk of bias and quality of included studies, we used the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS‐2) tool for observational studies concerned with screening, and a bespoke tool for modelling studies. We synthesised findings narratively. One review author assessed the certainty of evidence with GRADE, and several review authors discussed these GRADE judgements. MAIN RESULTS: Overall, we included 62 unique studies in the analysis; 49 were modelling studies and 13 were observational studies. Studies covered a variety of settings and levels of community transmission. Most studies compared travel‐related control measures against a counterfactual scenario in which the measure was not implemented. However, some modelling studies described additional comparator scenarios, such as different levels of stringency of the measures (including relaxation of restrictions), or a combination of measures. Concerns with the quality of modelling studies related to potentially inappropriate assumptions about the structure and input parameters, and an inadequate assessment of model uncertainty. Concerns with risk of bias in observational studies related to the selection of travellers and the reference test, and unclear reporting of certain methodological aspects. Below we outline the results for each intervention category by illustrating the findings from selected outcomes. Travel restrictions reducing or stopping cross‐border travel (31 modelling studies) The studies assessed cases avoided and shift in epidemic development. We found very low‐certainty evidence for a reduction in COVID‐19 cases in the community (13 studies) and cases exported or imported (9 studies). Most studies reported positive effects, with effect sizes varying widely; only a few studies showed no effect. There was very low‐certainty evidence that cross‐border travel controls can slow the spread of COVID‐19. Most studies predicted positive effects, however, results from individual studies varied from a delay of less than one day to a delay of 85 days; very few studies predicted no effect of the measure. Screening at borders (13 modelling studies; 13 observational studies) Screening measures covered symptom/exposure‐based screening or test‐based screening (commonly specifying polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing), or both, before departure or upon or within a few days of arrival. Studies assessed cases avoided, shift in epidemic development and cases detected. Studies generally predicted or observed some benefit from screening at borders, however these varied widely. For symptom/exposure‐based screening, one modelling study reported that global implementation of screening measures would reduce the number of cases exported per day from another country by 82% (95% confidence interval (CI) 72% to 95%) (moderate‐certainty evidence). Four modelling studies predicted delays in epidemic development, although there was wide variation in the results between the studies (very low‐certainty evidence). Four modelling studies predicted that the proportion of cases detected would range from 1% to 53% (very low‐certainty evidence). Nine observational studies observed the detected proportion to range from 0% to 100% (very low‐certainty evidence), although all but one study observed this proportion to be less than 54%. For test‐based screening, one modelling study provided very low‐certainty evidence for the number of cases avoided. It reported that testing travellers reduced imported or exported cases as well as secondary cases. Five observational studies observed that the proportion of cases detected varied from 58% to 90% (very low‐certainty evidence). Quarantine (12 modelling studies) The studies assessed cases avoided, shift in epidemic development and cases detected. All studies suggested some benefit of quarantine, however the magnitude of the effect ranged from small to large across the different outcomes (very low‐ to low‐certainty evidence). Three modelling studies predicted that the reduction in the number of cases in the community ranged from 450 to over 64,000 fewer cases (very low‐certainty evidence). The variation in effect was possibly related to the duration of quarantine and compliance. Quarantine and screening at borders (7 modelling studies; 4 observational studies) The studies assessed shift in epidemic development and cases detected. Most studies predicted positive effects for the combined measures with varying magnitudes (very low‐ to low‐certainty evidence). Four observational studies observed that the proportion of cases detected for quarantine and screening at borders ranged from 68% to 92% (low‐certainty evidence). The variation may depend on how the measures were combined, including the length of the quarantine period and days when the test was conducted in quarantine. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: With much of the evidence derived from modelling studies, notably for travel restrictions reducing or stopping cross‐border travel and quarantine of travellers, there is a lack of 'real‐world' evidence. The certainty of the evidence for most travel‐related control measures and outcomes is very low and the true effects are likely to be substantially different from those reported here. Broadly, travel restrictions may limit the spread of disease across national borders. Symptom/exposure‐based screening measures at borders on their own are likely not effective; PCR testing at borders as a screening measure likely detects more cases than symptom/exposure‐based screening at borders, although if performed only upon arrival this will likely also miss a meaningful proportion of cases. Quarantine, based on a sufficiently long quarantine period and high compliance is likely to largely avoid further transmission from travellers. Combining quarantine with PCR testing at borders will likely improve effectiveness. Many studies suggest that effects depend on factors, such as levels of community transmission, travel volumes and duration, other public health measures in place, and the exact specification and timing of the measure. Future research should be better reported, employ a range of designs beyond modelling and assess potential benefits and harms of the travel‐related control measures from a societal perspective

Protocol

Protocol for the Scoping Review and several other components which are essential for the protocol

The impact of diabetes on labour market participation: a systematic review of results and methods

Abstract Background Diabetes mellitus is a major chronic disease, which is connected to direct and indirect costs and productivity losses. However, its effects on labour market participation are not straightforward to identify, nor are they consistently included in cost-of-illness studies. First, this study aims to synthesise existing evidence regarding the impact of diabetes on labour market outcomes that imply a complete absence of work. Second, the analysis takes a particular look at relevant methodological choices and the resulting quality of the studies included. Methods We conducted a systematic literature research (PubMed, Embase, PsychINFO), by applying a standard screening, selection and results extraction process, which considered all types of studies including cross-sectional and longitudinal approaches. Risk-of-bias and quality within the studies were assessed and results were compared. We dedicated special attention to the modelling of potential reverse causality between diabetes and labour market outcomes and the consideration of comorbidities and complications. Results Overall, 30 studies satisfied our inclusion criteria. We identified four main labour participation outcomes: absence of employment, unemployment, early retirement, and disability pension. The studies reviewed show a negative impact of diabetes on the labour market participation outcomes considered. However, only a few studies controlled for endogeneity, differentiated between type 1 and type 2 diabetes or modelled the impact of comorbidities. We report how modelling choices affect the directions and interpretations of the effects. Conclusions The available evidence mainly suggests a negative impact of diabetes on several outcomes indicating labour market participation. The methodological limitations identified can guide future research with respect to both outcomes and methods. This study provides therefore an empirical contribution to the discussion on how to model the economic impact of diabetes

Health and economic impact of improved glucose, blood pressure and lipid control among German adults with type 2 diabetes: a modelling study

Aims/hypothesisThe aim of this study was to estimate the long-term health and economic consequences of improved risk factor control in German adults with type 2 diabetes.MethodsWe used the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 to project the patient-level health outcomes and healthcare costs of people with type 2 diabetes in Germany over 5, 10 and 30 years. We parameterised the model using the best available data on population characteristics, healthcare costs and health-related quality of life from German studies. The modelled scenarios were: (1) a permanent reduction of HbA1c by 5.5 mmol/mol (0.5%), of systolic BP (SBP) by 10 mmHg, or of LDL-cholesterol by 0.26 mmol/l in all patients, and (2) achievement of guideline care recommendations for HbA1c (≤53 mmol/mol [7%]), SBP (≤140 mmHg) or LDL-cholesterol (≤2.6 mmol/l) in patients who do not meet the recommendations. We calculated nationwide estimates using age- and sex-specific quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and cost estimates, type 2 diabetes prevalence and population size.ResultsOver 10 years, a permanent reduction of HbA1c by 5.5 mmol/mol (0.5%), SBP by 10 mmHg or LDL-cholesterol by 0.26 mmol/l led to per-person savings in healthcare expenditures of €121, €238 and €34, and 0.01, 0.02 and 0.015 QALYs gained, respectively. Achieving guideline care recommendations for HbA1c, SBP or LDL-cholesterol could reduce healthcare expenditure by €451, €507 and €327 and gained 0.03, 0.05 and 0.06 additional QALYs in individuals who did not meet the recommendations. Nationally, achieving guideline care recommendations for HbA1c, SBP and LDL-cholesterol could reduce healthcare costs by over €1.9 billion.Conclusions/interpretationSustained improvements in HbA1c, SBP and LDL-cholesterol control among diabetes patients in Germany can lead to substantial health benefits and reduce healthcare expenditures

Simulation modeling for the economic evaluation of population-based dietary policies: A systematic scoping review.

Simulation modeling can be useful to estimate the long-term health and economic impacts of population-based dietary policies. We conducted a systematic scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guideline to map and critically appraise economic evaluations of population-based dietary policies using simulation models. We searched Medline, Embase, and EconLit for studies published in English after 2005. Modeling studies were mapped based on model type, dietary policy, and nutritional target, and modeled risk factor-outcome pathways were analyzed. We included 56 studies comprising 136 model applications evaluating dietary policies in 21 countries. The policies most often assessed were reformulation (34/136), taxation (27/136), and labeling (20/136); the most common targets were salt/sodium (60/136), sugar-sweetened beverages (31/136), and fruit and vegetables (15/136). Model types included Markov-type (35/56), microsimulation (11/56), and comparative risk assessment (7/56) models. Overall, the key diet-related risk factors and health outcomes were modeled, but only 1 study included overall diet quality as a risk factor. Information about validation was only reported in 19 of 56 studies and few studies (14/56) analyzed the equity impacts of policies. Commonly included cost components were health sector (52/56) and public sector implementation costs (35/56), as opposed to private sector (18/56), lost productivity (11/56), and informal care costs (3/56). Most dietary policies (103/136) were evaluated as cost-saving independent of the applied costing perspective. An analysis of the main limitations reported by authors revealed that model validity, uncertainty of dietary effect estimates, and long-term intervention assumptions necessitate a careful interpretation of results. In conclusion, simulation modeling is widely applied in the economic evaluation of population-based dietary policies but rarely takes dietary complexity and the equity dimensions of policies into account. To increase relevance for policymakers and support diet-related disease prevention, economic effects beyond the health sector should be considered, and transparent conduct and reporting of model validation should be improved

The effect of differential privacy on Medicaid participation among racial and ethnic minority groups

OBJECTIVE: To investigate how county and state-level estimates of Medicaid enrollment among the total, non-Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic Black or African American, and Hispanic or Latino/a population are affected by Differential Privacy (DP), where statistical noise is added to the public decennial US census data to protect individual privacy. DATA SOURCES: We obtained population counts from the final version of the US Census Bureau Differential Privacy Demonstration Products from 2010 and combined them with Medicaid enrollment data. STUDY DESIGN: We compared 2010 county and state-level population counts released under the traditional disclosure avoidance techniques and the ones produced with the proposed DP procedures. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Not applicable. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We find the DP method introduces error up to 10% into counts and proportions of Medicaid participation rate accuracy at the county level, especially for small subpopulations and racial and ethnic minority groups. The effect of DP on Medicaid participation rate accuracy is only small and negligible at the state level. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of DP to the 2020 Census can affect analyses of health disparities, and health care access and use among different sub-populations in the United States. The planned implementation of DP in other census-related surveys such as the American Community Survey can misrepresent Medicaid participation rates for small racial and ethnic minority groups. This can affect Medicaid funding decisions

Associations between self-management behavior and sociodemographic and disease-related characteristics in elderly people with type 2 diabetes - New results from the population-based KORA studies in Germany.

Aims: Self-management behavior (SMB) is an important aspect in the management of diabetes. This study aimed to identify sociodemographic and disease-related factors associated with good SMB in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D).Methods: We used data from 479 people with T2D aged 65 or older from the population-based KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Area of Augsburg) Health Survey 2016 in Southern Germany. We estimated Poisson and logistic regression models testing the cross-sectional relationship between individual or disease-related characteristics and an established SMB sum index comprising six SMB dimensions stratified according to insulin treatment status.Results: Mean age in the sample was 75 and mean diabetes duration was 13 years. The overall level of SMB was low. Higher SMB index scores were associated with higher age, treatment with insulin, participation in a diabetes education program, and, for people with insulin treatment, with a BMI below 30 kg/m(2). Single item analyses generally supported these findings.Conclusions: SMB in people with T2D needs to be improved with efficient interventions. Targeting obese individuals and those at an early stage of the disease with low-barrier, regular education or self-management programs may be a preferred strategy