Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Tuning the Degradation Rate of Calcium Phosphate Cements by Incorporating Mixtures of Polylactic-co-Glycolic Acid Microspheres and Glucono-Delta-Lactone Microparticles

Item does not contain fulltextCalcium phosphate cements (CPCs) are frequently used as synthetic bone graft materials in view of their excellent osteocompatibility and clinical handling behavior. Hydroxyapatite-forming CPCs, however, degrade at very low rates, thereby limiting complete bone regeneration. The current study has investigated whether degradation of apatite-forming cements can be tuned by incorporating acid-producing slow-resorbing poly(D,L-lactic-co-glycolic) acid (PLGA) porogens, fast-resorbing glucono-delta-lactone (GDL) porogens, or mixtures thereof. The physicochemical, mechanical, and degradation characteristics of these CPC formulations were systematically analyzed upon soaking in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS). In parallel, various CPC formulations were implanted intramuscularly and orthotopically on top of the transverse process of goats followed by analysis of the soft tissue response and bone ingrowth after 12 weeks. In vitro degradation of GDL was almost completed after 2 weeks, as evidenced by characterization of the release of gluconic acid, while PLGA-containing CPCs released glycolic acid throughout the entire study (12 weeks), resulting in a decrease in compression strength of CPC. Extensive in vitro degradation of the CPC matrix was observed upon simultaneous incorporation of 30% PLGA-10% GDL. Histomorphometrical evaluation of the intramuscularly implanted samples revealed that all CPCs exhibited degradation, accompanied by an increase in capsule thickness. In the in vivo goat transverse process model, incorporation of 43% PLGA, 30% PLGA-5% GDL, and 30% PLGA-10% GDL in CPC significantly increased bone formation and resulted in higher bone height compared with both 10% GDL and 20% GDL-containing CPC samples

Drought-Induced Morpho-Physiological, Biochemical, Metabolite Responses and Protein Profiling of Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.)

The chickpea (Cicer arieitnum L.) is an important food legume crop of the family Fabaceae with high protein levels that is widely grown in rainfed areas prone to drought stress. It is a self-pollinated cool season crop with a true diploid (2n = 16) nature. It is relatively cheap and a high source of protein. About 90% of the chickpea crop is grown by the use of residual moisture in the soil without depending on irrigation. In the present study, two varieties of chickpea, namely ICC 4958 and HC-6, were grown under three field capacities (FC) (100% FC, 50% FC and 25% FC). Samples were taken three times, i.e., 15, 30 and 45 days after sowing (DAS). Parameters such as morphological, physiological, biochemical, metabolite and protein profiling of the two varieties were completed. Morphological parameters such as shoot length (14.2%), number of branches (20.7%), number of leaves (17.5%) and yield (56%) declined as the drought level increased and other characteristics such as root length (9.7%), number of flowers (24.5%) and number of pods (34.4%) increased as drought stress progressed. Physiological parameters such as relative water content (RWC) (13.5%), cell membrane stability (CMS) (29.6%) and chlorophyll content decreased, whereas electrolyte conductivity (EC) (38%) increased in both the varieties as field capacity decreased. Biochemical parameters such as proline (54.75%), sugar (15.2%), glycine betaine (32.25%), superoxide dismutase (SOD) (49.5%), catalase (CAT) (50.5%), ascorbate peroxidase (APX) (44.9%) and glutathione reductase (GR) (49%) increased as drought stress increased. Metabolite analyses of, for example, MDA (malondialdehyde) content (30.5%), total anthocyanin (36.3%), flavonoid content (26%) and phenolic content (29.5%) increased as drought progressed. We also performed protein profiling of the two varieties using SDS-PAGE (sodium dodecyl-sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis) to differentiate the expression analysis of the two varieties

Osteophilic properties of bone implant surface modifications in a cassette model on a decorticated goat spinal transverse process

This study comparatively evaluated the osteophilic capacity of 17 different surface modifications (i.e. fourteen different chemical modifications via ceramic coatings and three different physical modifications via surface roughness) for titanium (Ti) surfaces. All surface modifications were subjected to physico-chemical analyses and immersion in simulated body fluid (SBF) for coating stability assessment. Subsequently, a bone conduction chamber cassette model on the goat transverse process was used for comparative in vivo analysis based on bone responses to these different surface modifications after twelve weeks. Histological and histomorphometrical analyses in terms of longitudinal bone-to-implant contact percentage (BIC%), relative bone area (BA%) were investigated within each individual channel and maximum bone height (BH). Characterization of the surface modifications showed significant differences in surface chemistry and surface roughness among the surface modifications. Generally, immersion of the coatings in SBF showed net uptake of calcium by thick coatings (>50mum; plasma-sprayed and biomimetic coatings) and no fluctuations in the SBF for thin coatings (<50mum). The histomorphometrical data set demonstrated that only plasma-sprayed CaP coatings performed superiorly regarding BIC%, BA% and BH compared to un-coated surfaces, irrespective of surface roughness of the latter. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that the deposition of plasma-sprayed CaP coating with high roughness significantly improves the osteophilic capacity of titanium surfaces in a chamber cassette model. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: For the bone implant market, a large number of surface modifications are available on different types of (dental and orthopedic) bone implants. As the implant surface provides the interface at which the biomaterial interacts with the surrounding (bone) tissue, it is of utmost importance to know what surface modification has optimal osteophilic properties. In contrast to numerous earlier studies on bone implant surface modifications with limited number of comparison surfaces, the manuscript by van Oirschot et al. describes the data of in vivo experiments using a large animal model that allows for direct and simultaneous comparison of a large variety of surface modifications, which included both commercially available and experimental surface modifications for bone implants. These data clearly show the superiority of plasma-sprayed hydroxyapatite coatings regarding bone-to-implant contact, bone amount, and bone height

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world\u27s livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation