557 research outputs found
Cryptic Population Dynamics: Rapid Evolution Masks Trophic Interactions
Trophic relationships, such as those between predator and prey or between pathogen and host, are key interactions linking species in ecological food webs. The structure of these links and their strengths have major consequences for the dynamics and stability of food webs. The existence and strength of particular trophic links has often been assessed using observational data on changes in species abundance through time. Here we show that very strong links can be completely missed by these kinds of analyses when changes in population abundance are accompanied by contemporaneous rapid evolution in the prey or host species. Experimental observations, in rotifer-alga and phage-bacteria chemostats, show that the predator or pathogen can exhibit large-amplitude cycles while the abundance of the prey or host remains essentially constant. We know that the species are tightly linked in these experimental microcosms, but without this knowledge, we would infer from observed patterns in abundance that the species are weakly or not at all linked. Mathematical modeling shows that this kind of cryptic dynamics occurs when there is rapid prey or host evolution for traits conferring defense against attack, and the cost of defense (in terms of tradeoffs with other fitness components) is low. Several predictions of the theory that we developed to explain the rotifer-alga experiments are confirmed in the phage-bacteria experiments, where bacterial evolution could be tracked. Modeling suggests that rapid evolution may also confound experimental approaches to measuring interaction strength, but it identifies certain experimental designs as being more robust against potential confounding by rapid evolution
Cryptic Population Dynamics: Rapid Evolution Masks Trophic Interactions
Trophic relationships, such as those between predator and prey or between pathogen and host, are key interactions linking species in ecological food webs. The structure of these links and their strengths have major consequences for the dynamics and stability of food webs. The existence and strength of particular trophic links has often been assessed using observational data on changes in species abundance through time. Here we show that very strong links can be completely missed by these kinds of analyses when changes in population abundance are accompanied by contemporaneous rapid evolution in the prey or host species. Experimental observations, in rotifer-alga and phage-bacteria chemostats, show that the predator or pathogen can exhibit large-amplitude cycles while the abundance of the prey or host remains essentially constant. We know that the species are tightly linked in these experimental microcosms, but without this knowledge, we would infer from observed patterns in abundance that the species are weakly or not at all linked. Mathematical modeling shows that this kind of cryptic dynamics occurs when there is rapid prey or host evolution for traits conferring defense against attack, and the cost of defense (in terms of tradeoffs with other fitness components) is low. Several predictions of the theory that we developed to explain the rotifer-alga experiments are confirmed in the phage-bacteria experiments, where bacterial evolution could be tracked. Modeling suggests that rapid evolution may also confound experimental approaches to measuring interaction strength, but it identifies certain experimental designs as being more robust against potential confounding by rapid evolution
Mathematical Biology at an Undergraduate Liberal Arts College
Since 2002 we have offered an undergraduate major in Mathematical Biology at Harvey Mudd College. The major was developed and is administered jointly by the mathematics and biology faculty. In this paper we describe the major, courses, and faculty and student research and discuss some of the challenges and opportunities we have experienced
INFERRING COLONIZATION PROCESSES FROM POPULATION DYNAMICS IN SPATIALLY STRUCTURED PREDATOR–PREY SYSTEMS
Homophily and Contagion Are Generically Confounded in Observational Social Network Studies
We consider processes on social networks that can potentially involve three
factors: homophily, or the formation of social ties due to matching individual
traits; social contagion, also known as social influence; and the causal effect
of an individual's covariates on their behavior or other measurable responses.
We show that, generically, all of these are confounded with each other.
Distinguishing them from one another requires strong assumptions on the
parametrization of the social process or on the adequacy of the covariates used
(or both). In particular we demonstrate, with simple examples, that asymmetries
in regression coefficients cannot identify causal effects, and that very simple
models of imitation (a form of social contagion) can produce substantial
correlations between an individual's enduring traits and their choices, even
when there is no intrinsic affinity between them. We also suggest some possible
constructive responses to these results.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures. V2: Revised in response to referees. V3: Ditt
Venezuela, April 2002: Coup or Popular Rebellion? The Myth of a United Venezuela
This article assesses the merits of opposing National Assembly reports into the coup against President Chavez of Venezuela in April 2002. Looking at the historical context and the content of the reports, it argues that the two opposing accounts reflect a class division that has always existed in Venezuela but has been officially denied. It concludes that a possible exit from the stalemate could be that the opposition accept the reality of this class division and therefore the Chavez government as a legitimate representative of the popular classes. This, however, is unlikely in the present circumstances
Effects of rapid prey evolution on predator-prey cycles
We study the qualitative properties of population cycles in a predator-prey
system where genetic variability allows contemporary rapid evolution of the
prey. Previous numerical studies have found that prey evolution in response to
changing predation risk can have major quantitative and qualitative effects on
predator-prey cycles, including: (i) large increases in cycle period, (ii)
changes in phase relations (so that predator and prey are cycling exactly out
of phase, rather than the classical quarter-period phase lag), and (iii)
"cryptic" cycles in which total prey density remains nearly constant while
predator density and prey traits cycle. Here we focus on a chemostat model
motivated by our experimental system [Fussmann et al. 2000,Yoshida et al. 2003]
with algae (prey) and rotifers (predators), in which the prey exhibit rapid
evolution in their level of defense against predation. We show that the effects
of rapid prey evolution are robust and general, and furthermore that they occur
in a specific but biologically relevant region of parameter space: when traits
that greatly reduce predation risk are relatively cheap (in terms of reductions
in other fitness components), when there is coexistence between the two prey
types and the predator, and when the interaction between predators and
undefended prey alone would produce cycles. Because defense has been shown to
be inexpensive, even cost-free, in a number of systems [Andersson and Levin
1999, Gagneux et al. 2006,Yoshida et al. 2004], our discoveries may well be
reproduced in other model systems, and in nature. Finally, some of our key
results are extended to a general model in which functional forms for the
predation rate and prey birth rate are not specified.Comment: 35 pages, 8 figure
A mean-field version of the Nicodemi-Prisco SSB model for X-chromosome inactivation
Nicodemi and Prisco recently proposed a model for X-chromosome inactivation
in mammals, explaining this phenomenon in terms of a spontaneous
symmetry-breaking mechanism [{\it Phys. Rev. Lett.} 99 (2007), 108104]. Here we
provide a mean-field version of their model
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