Simpler and Better? Revisit of a Time-Series Model of Forecasting in the Lodging Industry

The average hotel manager recognizes the criticality of forecasting. However, most managers are either frustrated by complex models researchers constructed or appalled by the amount of time and efforts to master the nuances of statistical theories. As hotel competition intensifies, managers require an effective method to forecast financial performance (Chon & Singh, 1993). Luckily, lodging industry data has underlying patterns and trends that repeat themselves daily, weekly, monthly and yearly (Wheaton & Rossof, 1998). This provides an opportunity for a time-series forecasting model for revenue managers, considering time-series models’ intuitive nature of assuming that the history is useful in predicting the future, specifically, the value of a financial performance variable can be a function of itself and other variables from the past (Weatherford & Kimes, 2003; Banker & Chen, 2006; Schmidgall, 2006). Moreover, time-series forecasting models, if constructed properly, can be very easy and intuitive to use in the lodging context. Considering annual forecast of sales is critical for budgeting, revenue management and control purposes, this paper focuses on how to forecast annual sales one year ahead using an easily applicable time-series model in the lodging industry and provides evidence of the model forecasting accuracy. Findings of this paper are timely and extremely valuable, especially considering the need for lodging companies to accurately forecast future sales in a time of decreasing demand

The Impact of Activity Interventions on the Well-Being of Older Adults in Continuing Care Communities

As the U.S. population ages, interventions are needed to ensure quality of life continues as boomers enter assisted and independent living communities (AICs). These transitions can significantly affect quality of life. Activity and continuity theories maintain that participation in discretionary/informal activities is crucial for psychosocial health and well-being (aspects of quality of life). This study evaluates the impacts of participation in discretionary activities on life satisfaction, social isolation, and loneliness, using data from a longitudinal study of older adults in AICs. Older adults who participated in 8 weeks of discretionary activities reported greater life satisfaction and lower levels of social isolation compared with non-participants. Forming alliances and group identities is the key for building new relationships and maintaining relationships in the community. Determining the impact participation in activities has on residents is vital to being able to help develop a more comprehensive understanding of how quality of life can be maintained in AICs

Predictors of health-related quality of life in patients with colorectal cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most studies that have identified variables associated with the health-related quality of life (HRQL) of patients with colorectal cancer have been cross-sectional or included patients with other diagnoses. The objectives of this study were to identify predictors of HRQL in patients with colorectal cancer and interpret the clinical importance of the results.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a population-based longitudinal study of patients identified through three regions of the California Cancer Registry. Surveys were completed by 568 patients approximately 9 and 19 months post-diagnosis. Three HRQL outcomes from the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy – Colorectal (FACT-C) were evaluated: social/family well-being (SWB), emotional well-being (EWB) and the Trial Outcome Index (TOI), which is a colorectal cancer-specific summary measure of physical function and well-being. Sociodemographic, cancer/health, and healthcare variables were assessed in multivariable regression models. We computed the difference in predicted HRQL scores corresponding to a large difference in a predictor variable, defined as a 1 standard deviation difference for interval variables or the difference relative to the reference category for nominal variables. The effect of an explanatory variable on HRQL was considered clinically meaningful if the predicted score difference was at least as large as the minimally important difference.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Common predictors of better TOI, SWB and EWB were better general health and factors related to better perceived quality of cancer care. Predictor variables in addition to general health and perceived quality of care were identified only for SWB. Being married/living as married was associated with better SWB, whereas being male or of Hispanic ethnicity was associated with worse SWB. Among the sociodemographic, cancer/health, and healthcare variables evaluated, only Hispanic ethnicity had a clinically meaningful effect on an HRQL outcome.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings, particularly the information on the clinical importance of predictor variables, can help clinicians identify patients who may be at risk for poor future HRQL. Potentially modifiable factors were related to perceived quality of cancer care; thus, future research should evaluate whether improving these factors improves HRQL.</p

The association between health literacy and indicators of cognitive impairment in a diverse sample of primary care patients

To confirm the association of health literacy scores as measured by Health Literacy Assessment Using Talking Touchscreen Technology (Health LiTT) with cognitive ability and education. To determine whether this association differs by cognitive task

Attitudes Towards and Limitations to ICT Use in Assisted and Independent Living Communities: Findings from a Specially-Designed Technological Intervention

Much literature has been devoted to theoretical explanations of the learning processes of older adults and to the methods of teaching best utilized in older populations. However, there has been less focus on the education of older adults who reside in assisted and independent living communities (AICs), especially with regards to information and communication technology (ICT) education. The purpose of this study is to determine whether participants\u27 attitudes and views towards computers and the Internet are affected as a result of participating in an eight-week training program designed to enhance computer and Internet use among older adults in such communities. Specifically, we examine if ICT education specially designed for AIC residents results in more positive attitudes towards ICTs and a perceived decrease in factors that may limit or prevent computer and Internet use. We discuss the implications of these results for enhancing the quality of life for older adults in AICs and make recommendations for those seeking to decrease digital inequality among older adults in these communities through their own ICT classes

Ursinus College Alumni Journal, March 1963

The President writes • Dr. McClure\u27s charge to graduating classes • Norman Egbert McClure: A tribute • Faculty memorial minute • Alumni memorial minute • Twenty-five years of the Messiah at Ursinus • As I recall • A gift for the First Lady • Philip L. Corson • Gypsy: Hail and farewell • Controversy at midnight • Two students leave for Peace Corps • Capital funds subscription total $467,392 to date • Capital funds • McClure and Bone memorials • The Century Club • Dining hall news • Mid-year report of 1963 Loyalty Fund campaign • The third alumni seminar • Clawson to be honored • Reimert recognized • Paisley elected college treasurer • Travel seminar • Navy V-12 reunion planned • Church headquarters at Ursinus • You and the future of Ursinus • College costs • Alumni album • Franklin Earnest III, \u2739 • Walter F. Longacre, \u2714 • Lyndell R. Reber, \u2736 • Archer P. Crosley, \u2742 • Robert S. Litwak, \u2745 • Michael R. Deitz, \u2754 • Allan Lake Rice • Dean concludes career • Wrestling • Dryfoos the greatest • Nominees for Alumni Association offices • Class notes • Weddings • Births • Necrology • Regionalshttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/alumnijournal/1076/thumbnail.jp

Application of a Key Events Dose-Response Analysis to Nutrients: A Case Study with Vitamin A (Retinol)

The methodology used to establish tolerable upper intake levels (UL) for nutrients borrows heavily from risk assessment methods used by toxicologists. Empirical data are used to identify intake levels associated with adverse effects, and Uncertainty Factors (UF) are applied to establish ULs, which in turn inform public health decisions and standards. Use of UFs reflects lack of knowledge regarding the biological events that underlie response to the intake of a given nutrient, and also regarding the sources of variability in that response. In this paper, the Key Events Dose-Response Framework (KEDRF) is used to systematically consider the major biological steps that lead from the intake of the preformed vitamin A to excess systemic levels, and subsequently to increased risk of adverse effects. Each step is examined with regard to factors that influence whether there is progression toward the adverse effect of concern. The role of homeostatic mechanisms is discussed, along with the types of research needed to improve understanding of dose-response for vitamin A. This initial analysis illustrates the potential of the KEDRF as a useful analytical tool for integrating current knowledge regarding dose-response, generating questions that will focus future research efforts, and clarifying how improved knowledge and data could be used to reduce reliance on UFs

Mechanisms of congenital heart disease caused by NAA15 haploinsufficiency

Rationale: NAA15 is a component of the N-terminal (Nt) acetyltransferase complex, NatA. The mechanism by which NAA15 haploinsufficiency causes congenital heart disease (CHD) remains unknown. To better understand molecular processes by which NAA15 haploinsufficiency perturbs cardiac development, we introduced NAA15 variants into human induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) and assessed the consequences of these mutations on RNA and protein expression. Objective: We aim to understand the role of NAA15 haploinsufficiency in cardiac development by investigating proteomic effects on NatA complex activity, and identifying proteins dependent upon a full amount of NAA15. Methods and Results: We introduced heterozygous LoF, compound heterozygous and missense residues (R276W) in iPS cells using CRISPR/Cas9. Haploinsufficient NAA15 iPS cells differentiate into cardiomyocytes, unlike NAA15-null iPS cells, presumably due to altered composition of NatA. Mass spectrometry (MS) analyses reveal ~80% of identified iPS cell NatA targeted proteins displayed partial or complete Nt-acetylation. Between null and haploinsufficient NAA15 cells Nt-acetylation levels of 32 and 9 NatA-specific targeted proteins were reduced, respectively. Similar acetylation loss in few proteins occurred in NAA15 R276W iPSCs. In addition, steady-state protein levels of 562 proteins were altered in both null and haploinsufficient NAA15 cells; eighteen were ribosomal-associated proteins. At least four proteins were encoded by genes known to cause autosomal dominant CHD. Conclusions: These studies define a set of human proteins that requires a full NAA15 complement for normal synthesis and development. A 50% reduction in the amount of NAA15 alters levels of at least 562 proteins and Nt-acetylation of only 9 proteins. One or more modulated proteins are likely responsible for NAA15-haploinsufficiency mediated CHD. Additionally, genetically engineered iPS cells provide a platform for evaluating the consequences of amino acid sequence variants of unknown significance on NAA15 function

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to &lt;90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], &gt;300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of &lt;15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P&lt;0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P&lt;0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years