Dynamic provisioning: a countercyclical tool for loan loss reserves

In the wake of the financial crisis of 2007-2009, as various banking policymakers revisit loan loss provisioning rules, the Spanish approach of dynamic provisioning has garnered attention as a potential alternative to the current incurred loss approach. We review the current approach to loan loss reserves in the United States, focusing on how loan loss reserves relate to bank solvency and why the current accounting approach may have procyclical effects. We present a conceptual framework to compare loan loss provisioning under the incurred loss framework and dynamic provisioning. Then we simulate dynamic provisioning with U.S. data to present an empirical comparison.Loans

Decoding messages from the yield curve

Bank supervision ; Federal Reserve District, 5th

Tail dependence and indicators of systemic risk for large US depositories

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the extreme loss tail dependence between stock returns of large US depository institutions. We find that stock returns exhibit strong loss dependence even in their limiting joint extremes. Motivated by this result, we derive extremal dependence-based systemic risk indicators. The proposed systemic risk indicators reflect downturns in the US financial industry very well. We also develop a set of firm-level average extremal dependence measures. We show that these firm-level measures could have been used to identify the firms that were more vulnerable to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Additionally, we explore the performance of selected systemic risk indicators in predicting the crisis performance of large US depository institutions and find that the average stock return correlations are also good predictors of crisis period returns. Finally, we identify factors predictive of extremal dependence for the US depository institutions in a panel regression setting. Strength of extremal dependence increases with asset size and similarity of financial fundamentals. On the other hand, strength of extremal dependence decreases with capitalization, liquidity, funding stability and asset quality. We believe the proposed indicators have the potential to inform the prudential supervision of systemic risk

Correlations of differentially expressed gap junction connexins cx26, cx30, cx32, cx43 and cx46 with breast cancer progression and prognosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Connexins and their cell membrane channels contribute to the control of cell proliferation and compartmental functions in breast glands and their deregulation is linked to breast carcinogenesis. Our aim was to correlate connexin expression with tumor progression and prognosis in primary breast cancers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Meta-analysis of connexin isotype expression data of 1809 and 1899 breast cancers from the Affymetrix and Illumina array platforms, respectively, was performed. Expressed connexins were also monitored at the protein level in tissue microarrays of 127 patients equally representing all tumor grades, using immunofluorescence and multilayer, multichannel digital microscopy. Prognostic correlations were plotted in Kaplan-Meier curves and tested using the log-rank test and cox-regression analysis in univariate and multivariate models. RESULTS: The expression of GJA1/Cx43, GJA3/Cx46 and GJB2/Cx26 and, for the first time, GJA6/Cx30 and GJB1/Cx32 was revealed both in normal human mammary glands and breast carcinomas. Within their subfamilies these connexins can form homo- and heterocellular epithelial channels. In cancer, the array datasets cross-validated each other's prognostic results. In line with the significant correlations found at mRNA level, elevated Cx43 protein levels were linked with significantly improved breast cancer outcome, offering Cx43 protein detection as an independent prognostic marker stronger than vascular invasion or necrosis. As a contrary, elevated Cx30 mRNA and protein levels were associated with a reduced disease outcome offering Cx30 protein detection as an independent prognostic marker outperforming mitotic index and necrosis. Elevated versus low Cx43 protein levels allowed the stratification of grade 2 tumors into good and poor relapse free survival subgroups, respectively. Also, elevated versus low Cx30 levels stratified grade 3 patients into poor and good overall survival subgroups, respectively. CONCLUSION: Differential expression of Cx43 and Cx30 may serve as potential positive and negative prognostic markers, respectively, for a clinically relevant stratification of breast cancers

The International Natural Product Sciences Taskforce (INPST) and the power of Twitter networking exemplified through #INPST hashtag analysis

Background: The development of digital technologies and the evolution of open innovation approaches have enabled the creation of diverse virtual organizations and enterprises coordinating their activities primarily online. The open innovation platform titled "International Natural Product Sciences Taskforce" (INPST) was established in 2018, to bring together in collaborative environment individuals and organizations interested in natural product scientific research, and to empower their interactions by using digital communication tools. Methods: In this work, we present a general overview of INPST activities and showcase the specific use of Twitter as a powerful networking tool that was used to host a one-week "2021 INPST Twitter Networking Event" (spanning from 31st May 2021 to 6th June 2021) based on the application of the Twitter hashtag #INPST. Results and Conclusion: The use of this hashtag during the networking event period was analyzed with Symplur Signals (https://www.symplur.com/), revealing a total of 6,036 tweets, shared by 686 users, which generated a total of 65,004,773 impressions (views of the respective tweets). This networking event's achieved high visibility and participation rate showcases a convincing example of how this social media platform can be used as a highly effective tool to host virtual Twitter-based international biomedical research events

Giving and Receiving Foreign Aid: Does Conflict Count?

Summary Of what relative importance are strategic motivators for bilateral aid donors, and how important is a recipient's geographic proximity to conflict relative to previously examined economic and political motivators? We find that donors have historically responded to balanced incentives to reduce recipient poverty and further donor political and economic goals. Every bilateral donor conditions aid on conflict. The United States allocates large amounts of development aid to countries bordering a conflict, both pre- and post-Cold War. However, controlling for development levels and donor economic and political interest, most donors reduce aid to a recipient with an in-house or nearby intense conflict.foreign aid conflict political economy bilateral aid donors developing countries

Assessing the effectiveness of the Paulson "teaser freezer" plan: evidence from the ABX index

How did investors holding assets backed by subprime residential mortgages react when Treasury Secretary Paulson announced the so-called "teaser freezer" plan to modify mortgages in December 2007? We apply event-study methodology to the ABX index, the only source of daily securities prices in subprime mortgage markets. Our results show that investors initially perceived that the Paulson Plan would improve conditions in subprime housing markets. Specifically, those investors who held the riskiest securities backed by subprime residential housing benefited the most from the Paulson Plan. These findings do not extend to the longer term, suggesting that any positive effects from Paulson Plan loan modifications were overwhelmed by the continued deterioration in housing markets. ; WP 10-06 replaces an earlier version listed as WP 09-7Mortgages ; Housing