Dynamic models in space and time

This paper presents a first-order autoregressive distributed lag model in both space and time. It is shown that this model encompasses a wide series of simpler models frequently used in the analysis of space-time data as well as models that better fit the data and have never been used before. A framework is developed to determine which model is the most likely candidate to study space-time data. As an application, the relationship between the labor force participation rate and the unemployment rate is estimated using regional data of Germany, France and the UK derived from Eurostat, 1983-1993.

Demographic transition, economic growth and labor market dynamics

This thesis provides empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the distribution of the population across different age groups affects economic growth, female labor force participation, and labor productivity growth. In addition, it finds empirical evidence in favor of the hypotheses that the relationship between the female labor force participation rate and economic growth is U-shaped and that there exists a tradeoff between labor productivity growth and the labor force participation rate in the short term. After motivating this thesis in the first chapter, chapter 2 adopts a Solow-Swan model extended to include demographic variables to analyze the overall effect of demographic transition on economic growth.Chapter 3 investigates the impact of economic growth and fertility transition on women’s labor force participation .Chapter 4 focuses on the impact of increasing labor force participation rates on labor productivity. The results show that there exists a tradeoff between productivity and labor force participation in the short term. However, this tradeoff tends to fade away after several years, revealing that the increase in labor force participation has a positive effect on economic growth in the medium to long term. Chapter 5 provides further insights on the divergence of labor productivity across regions and different income groups around the world. From a policy viewpoint, the results underline a strong need to better understand the pace and timing of the demographic transition process and the transformation process of “demographic dividend” into economic growth.

Regressieanalyse op basis van een gestratificeerde steekproef

Om de ontwikkelingen in de Nederlandse landbouw te kunnen volgen houdt het LEI boekhoudingen bij van ruim 1000 landbouwbedrijven. Deze bedrijven worden gekozen op basis van een steekproef uit de in de Landbouwtelling geregistreerde bedrijven. Om tot een zo getrouw mogelijke afspiegeling te komen van de Nederlandse landbouw dient de samenstelling van de steekproef zoveel mogelijk overeen te komen met die van de gehele populatie. Door een tweetal maatregelen wordt getracht de kans op afwijkingen door onder- of oververtegenwoordiging te verkleinen. Ten eerste wordt de steekproef gestratificeerd: de samenstelling ervan wordt gereguleerd via een onderverdeling in strata en het trekken daaruit van afzonderlijke steekproeven. Ten tweede wordt binnen deze strata rekening gehouden met de grootte van de onderlinge verschillen tussen de bedrijven door het steekproefpercentage te varieren. De juistheid van de keuze van deze maatregelen ter verkleining van de afwijkingen wordt in het verslag beoordeel

Dynamic models in space and time

This paper presents a first-order autoregressive distributed lag model in both space and time. It is shown that this model encompasses a wide series of simpler models frequently used in the analysis of space-time data as well as models that better fit the data and have never been used before. A framework is developed to determine which model is the most likely candidate to study space-time data. As an application, the relationship between the labor force participation rate and the unemployment rate is estimated using regional data of Germany, France and the UK derived from Eurostat, 1983-1993