Forecasting Inflation: the Relevance of Higher Moments

We provide evidence that higher moments of the relative price distribution improve out-of-sample forecasts of inflation. Further, we show how theoretically consistent higher moments can be calculated by expanding the seminal work by Theil (1967). Results presented here are of direct relevance to monetary authorities, policy analysts and academic economistsrelative price distribution, higher moments, out-of-sample inflation forecasting

Foundation and empire : a critique of Hardt and Negri

In this article, Thompson complements recent critiques of Hardt and Negri's Empire (see Finn Bowring in Capital and Class, no. 83) using the tools of labour process theory to critique the political economy of Empire, and to note its unfortunate similarities to conventional theories of the knowledge economy

Epilepsy priorities in Europe: A report of the ILAE-IBE Epilepsy Advocacy Europe Task Force.

The European Forum on Epilepsy Research (ERF2013), which took place in Dublin, Ireland, on May 26-29, 2013, was designed to appraise epilepsy research priorities in Europe through consultation with clinical and basic scientists as well as representatives of lay organizations and health care providers. The ultimate goal was to provide a platform to improve the lives of persons with epilepsy by influencing the political agenda of the EU. The Forum highlighted the epidemiologic, medical, and social importance of epilepsy in Europe, and addressed three separate but closely related concepts. First, possibilities were explored as to how the stigma and social burden associated with epilepsy could be reduced through targeted initiatives at EU national and regional levels. Second, ways to ensure optimal standards of care throughout Europe were specifically discussed. Finally, a need for further funding in epilepsy research within the European Horizon 2020 funding programme was communicated to politicians and policymakers participating to the forum. Research topics discussed specifically included (1) epilepsy in the developing brain; (2) novel targets for innovative diagnostics and treatment of epilepsy; (3) what is required for prevention and cure of epilepsy; and (4) epilepsy and comorbidities, with a special focus on aging and mental health. This report provides a summary of recommendations that emerged at ERF2013 about how to (1) strengthen epilepsy research, (2) reduce the treatment gap, and (3) reduce the burden and stigma associated with epilepsy. Half of the 6 million European citizens with epilepsy feel stigmatized and experience social exclusion, stressing the need for funding trans-European awareness campaigns and monitoring their impact on stigma, in line with the global commitment of the European Commission and with the recommendations made in the 2011 Written Declaration on Epilepsy. Epilepsy care has high rates of misdiagnosis and considerable variability in organization and quality across European countries, translating into huge societal cost (0.2% GDP) and stressing the need for cost-effective programs of harmonization and optimization of epilepsy care throughout Europe. There is currently no cure or prevention for epilepsy, and 30% of affected persons are not controlled by current treatments, stressing the need for pursuing research efforts in the field within Horizon 2020. Priorities should include (1) development of innovative biomarkers and therapeutic targets and strategies, from gene and cell-based therapies to technologically advanced surgical treatment; (2) addressing issues raised by pediatric and aging populations, as well as by specific etiologies and comorbidities such as traumatic brain injury (TBI) and cognitive dysfunction, toward more personalized medicine and prevention; and (3) translational studies and clinical trials built upon well-established European consortia

Pathogenesis, diagnosis and treatment of Rasmussen encephalitis: A European consensus statement

Rasmussen encephalitis (RE) is a rare but severe immune-mediated brain disorder leading to unilateral hemispheric atrophy, associated progressive neurological dysfunction and intractable seizures. Recent data on the pathogenesis of the disease, its clinical and paraclinical presentation, and therapeutic approaches are summarized. Based on these data, we propose formal diagnostic criteria and a therapeutic pathway for the management of RE patient

Quantification of depth of anesthesia by nonlinear time series analysis of brain electrical activity

We investigate several quantifiers of the electroencephalogram (EEG) signal with respect to their ability to indicate depth of anesthesia. For 17 patients anesthetized with Sevoflurane, three established measures (two spectral and one based on the bispectrum), as well as a phase space based nonlinear correlation index were computed from consecutive EEG epochs. In absence of an independent way to determine anesthesia depth, the standard was derived from measured blood plasma concentrations of the anesthetic via a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model for the estimated effective brain concentration of Sevoflurane. In most patients, the highest correlation is observed for the nonlinear correlation index D*. In contrast to spectral measures, D* is found to decrease monotonically with increasing (estimated) depth of anesthesia, even when a "burst-suppression" pattern occurs in the EEG. The findings show the potential for applications of concepts derived from the theory of nonlinear dynamics, even if little can be assumed about the process under investigation.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

Risk of Fetal Loss After Chorionic Villus Sampling in Twin Pregnancy Derived from Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Objective: To estimate the risk of fetal loss associated with chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in twin pregnancy, using propensity score analysis. Methods: This was a multicenter cohort study of women with twin pregnancy undergoing ultrasound examination at 11-13 weeks' gestation, performed in eight fetal medicine units in which the leadership were trained at the Harris Birthright Research Centre for Fetal Medicine in London, UK, and in which the protocols for screening, invasive testing and pregnancy management are similar. The risk of death of at least one fetus was compared between pregnancies that had and those that did not have CVS, after propensity score matching (1:1 ratio). This procedure created two comparable groups by balancing the maternal and pregnancy characteristics that lead to CVS being performed, similar to how randomization operates in a randomized clinical trial. Results: The study population of 8581 twin pregnancies included 445 that had CVS. Death of one or two fetuses at any stage during pregnancy occurred in 11.5% (51/445) of pregnancies in the CVS group and in 6.3% (515/8136) in the non-CVS group (P < 0.001). The propensity score algorithm matched 258 cases that had CVS with 258 non-CVS cases; there was at least one fetal loss in 29 (11.2%) cases in the CVS group and in 35 (13.6%) cases in the matched non-CVS group (odds ratio (OR), 0.81; 95% CI, 0.48-1.35; P = 0.415). However, there was a significant interaction between the risk of fetal loss after CVS and the background risk of fetal loss; when the background risk was higher, the risk of fetal loss after CVS decreased (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.23-0.90), while, in pregnancies with a lower background risk of fetal loss, the risk of fetal loss after CVS increased (OR, 2.45; 95% CI, 0.95-7.13). The effects were statistically significantly different (P-value of the interaction = 0.005). For a pregnancy in which the background risk of fetal loss was about 6% (the same as in our non-CVS population), there was no change in the risk of fetal loss after CVS, but, when the background risk was more than 6%, the posterior risk was paradoxically reduced, and when the background risk was less than 6%, the posterior risk increased exponentially; for example, if the background risk of fetal loss was 2.0%, the relative risk was 2.8 and the posterior risk was 5.6%. Conclusion: In twin pregnancy, after accounting for the risk factors that lead to both CVS and spontaneous fetal loss and confining the analysis to pregnancies at lower prior risk, CVS seems to increase the risk of fetal loss by about 3.5% above the patient's background risk. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Familiäre Kavernome des Zentralnervensystems: Eine klinische und genetische Studie an 15 deutsche Familien

Zusammenfassung: 1928 beschrieb Hugo Friedrich Kufs erstmalig eine Familie mit zerebralen, retinalen und kutanen Kavernomen. Mittlerweile wurden über 300 weitere Familien beschrieben. Ebenfalls wurden drei Genloci 7q21-q22 (mit dem Gen CCM1), 7p15-p13 (Gen CCM2) und 3q25.2-q27 (Gen CCM3) beschrieben, in denen Mutationen zu Kavernomen führen. Das Genprodukt von CCM1 ist das Protein Krit1 (Krev Interaction Trapped 1), das über verschiedene Mechanismen mit der Angiogenese interagiert. Das neu entdeckte CCM2-Gen enkodiert ein Protein, das möglicherweise eine dem Krit1 ähnliche Funktion in der Regulation der Angiogenese hat. Das CCM3-Gen wurde noch nicht beschrieben. In dieser Arbeit werden sowohl die klinischen und genetischen Befunde bei 15 deutschen Familien beschriebe

A mathematical framework for critical transitions: normal forms, variance and applications

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to classify critical transitions by using bifurcation theory and normal forms in the singular limit. Based on this elementary classification, we analyze stochastic fluctuations and calculate scaling laws of the variance of stochastic sample paths near critical transitions for fast subsystem bifurcations up to codimension two. The theory is applied to several models: the Stommel-Cessi box model for the thermohaline circulation from geoscience, an epidemic-spreading model on an adaptive network, an activator-inhibitor switch from systems biology, a predator-prey system from ecology and to the Euler buckling problem from classical mechanics. For the Stommel-Cessi model we compare different detrending techniques to calculate early-warning signs. In the epidemics model we show that link densities could be better variables for prediction than population densities. The activator-inhibitor switch demonstrates effects in three time-scale systems and points out that excitable cells and molecular units have information for subthreshold prediction. In the predator-prey model explosive population growth near a codimension two bifurcation is investigated and we show that early-warnings from normal forms can be misleading in this context. In the biomechanical model we demonstrate that early-warning signs for buckling depend crucially on the control strategy near the instability which illustrates the effect of multiplicative noise.Comment: minor corrections to previous versio

Globalization, multinationals and institutional diversity

This article aims to explore the impact of globalization and in particular multinationals on diversity within national varieties of capitalism. Do the actions of multinationals create more diversity within national systems, do they reduce diversity or do they have relatively little impact on diversity within national systems? The article argues that there are distinctive structures of institutional diversity across different national systems. Therefore, the question is not how do MNCs impact on institutional diversity per se but how do they impact on these different structures of diversity? In order to develop this argument, the paper also differentiates types of multinational. The article uses distinction between market-seeking, resource-seeking, efficiency-seeking and strategic asset-seeking in order to identify a range of different MNC activity across manufacturing, professional and financial sectors. These different sorts of MNC activity vary across time and contexts in terms of their significance. The article looks in detail at four different models of capitalism and examines how the entry of different sorts of multinationals with distinctive objectives impacts on the relationships between key social actors which underpin and reinforce these models. In this way, it suggests how institutional diversity within different types of capitalism may evolve under the impact of MNCs and globalization