Using fuzzy PROMETHEE to select countries for developmental Aid

Wealthy nations continue to demonstrate their unwavering support to improving conditions and the general well-being of poor countries in spite of the recent economic crises. However, as developmental aid relatively shrinks, both Aid donors and recipient countries have shown keen interest in methodologies used in evaluating developmental assistance programs. Evaluation of aid programs is seen as a complex task mainly because of the several non-aid factors that tend to affect overall outcomes. Adding to the complexity are the subjective sets of criteria used in Aid evaluations programs. This paper proposes a two stage framework of fuzzy TOPSIS and sensitivity analysis to demonstrate how aid-recipient countries can be evaluated to deepen transparency, fairness, value for money and sustainability of such aid programs. Using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) set of subjective criteria for evaluating aid programs; a numerical examplepre-defined by linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers is provided to evaluate aid programs. Fuzzy PROMETHEE is used in the first stage to evaluate and rank aid-recipients followed by a comparative analysis with Fuzzy VIKOR and Fuzzy TOPSIS to ascertain an accurateness of the method used. A sensitivity analysis is further added that anticipates possible influences from lobbyists and examines the effect of that bias in expert ratings on the evaluation process. The result shows a framework that can be employed in evaluating aid effectiveness of recipient-countries

The resurgence of rheumatic fever in a developed country area: the role of echocardiography.

OBJECTIVES: The annual incidence of ARF ranges from 5 to 51/100, 000 population worldwide in the 5- to 15-year age group. In the past, there was a decline in the incidence of ARF; however, focal outbreaks have been reported. This study evaluated the incidence of ARF in 2007-08 in a region of a developed country compared with the previous decade. METHODS: A retrospective review of all admission records for ARF in Trieste between January 2007 and December 2008 was undertaken. The diagnosis of ARF was established by the Jones criteria according to the 1992 revision. RESULTS: Between January 2007 and December 2008: 13 cases of ARF were recorded, 11 females and 2 males. The estimated incidence was 23 and 27/100, 000 population new cases each year, respectively, in the 5- to 15-year age group. Migratory polyarthritis occurred in 6/13, chorea in 7/13 and clinical carditis in 5/13 cases. Five out of 13 patients had only echocardiographic abnormalities, with no clinical cardiac manifestations. Another two patients did not fulfil diagnostic criteria for ARF, presenting with only three minor criteria, but they revealed silent carditis at echocardiography evaluation. During the follow-up, in one case the carditis receded and in the other it significantly improved. CONCLUSIONS: Our experience underlines that ARF has not yet disappeared in industrialized countries. We observed a high incidence of chorea, always associated with mild carditis. Echocardiographic assessment should be routinely performed in all patients with suspected ARF in order to identify those subclinical cases of valvulitis that would otherwise pass undiagnosed without receiving proper prophylaxis