Modeling water regulation ecosystem services: A review in the context of ecosystem accounting

Natural Capital Accounting (NCA) has evolved rapidly in recent years through substantial efforts of both international organizations and the scientific community. Water regulation ecosystem services (ES) are key elements of regulating services in ecosystem accounting, with most relevant studies strongly relying on models for ES quantification up to now. In this paper, we provide a review of modeling efforts for water regulation ES based on 148 scientific papers, properly systematized, analyzed and interpreted by using a detailed and structured original template. We examined emerging trends and gaps in model applications and the readiness to integrate them into the NCA and SEEA-EA frameworks. We propose a classification scheme which organizes the 92 different models and modeling approaches identified in the review process into eight model categories so that this scheme can be efficiently used in the water ES assessment of and for further integration into the accounting framework. Among the models, the hydrologic model SWAT and the modeling tool InVEST are by far the most popular. The results of the review revealed differences between the general ES literature and the accounting-related papers. Moreover, our analysis sets the basis for useful recommendations of which model categories are the most appropriate for the water regulation ES, included in the SEEA-EA reference list. Based on the number of relevant papers, the reliability and the confidence level of the recommendations for the use of models have been incorporated in our analysis. We highlight as model category with the highest confidence the ones relative to quantification water flow and flood control service aiming at ES accounting. Models for erosion control ES can only be recommended with a lower confidence, while for water purification the results lack clear evidence for using a particular group of models. Based on the research findings we identified the main research priorities on model integration in the accounting of water regulation ES: 1) further development of guidelines for the use of models in ecosystem accounting; 2) analyses of the spatial aspects of the model towards a clear distinction between ecosystem service supply and use; and 3) development of integrated modeling approaches for water regulation ES accounting. © 2022 The Author(s

Reassessing Existing Reservoir Supply Capacity and Management Resilience under Climate Change and Sediment Deposition

Freshwater resources are limited and seasonally and spatially unevenly distributed. Thus, in water resources management plans, storage reservoirs play a vital role in safeguarding drinking, irrigation, hydropower and livestock water supply. In the last decades, the dams’ negative effects, such as fragmentation of water flow and sediment transport, are considered in decision-making, for achieving an optimal balance between human needs and healthy riverine and coastal ecosystems. Currently, operation of existing reservoirs is challenged by increasing water demand, climate change effects and active storage reduction due to sediment deposition, jeopardizing their supply capacity. This paper proposes a methodological framework to reassess supply capacity and management resilience for an existing reservoir under these challenges. Future projections are derived by plausible climate scenarios and global climate models and by stochastic simulation of historic data. An alternative basic reservoir management scenario with a very low exceedance probability is derived. Excess water volumes are investigated under a probabilistic prism for enabling multiple-purpose water demands. Finally, this method is showcased to the Ladhon Reservoir (Greece). The probable total benefit from water allocated to the various water uses is estimated to assist decision makers in examining the tradeoffs between the probable additional benefit and risk of exceedance

Projecting Annual Rainfall Timeseries Using Machine Learning Techniques

Hydropower plays an essential role in Europe’s energy transition and can serve as an important factor in the stability of the electricity system. This is even more crucial in areas that rely strongly on renewable energy production, for instance, solar and wind power, as for example the Peloponnese and the Ionian islands in Greece. To safeguard hydropower’s contribution to total energy production, an accurate prediction of the annual precipitation is required. Valuable tools to obtain accurate predictions of future observations are firstly a series of sophisticated data preprocessing techniques and secondly the use of advanced machine learning algorithms. In the present paper, a complete procedure is proposed to obtain accurate predictions of meteorological data, such as precipitation. This procedure is applied to the Greek automated weather stations network, operated by the National Observatory of Athens, in the Peloponnese and the Ionian islands in Greece. The proposed prediction algorithm successfully identified the climatic zones based on their different geographic and climatic characteristics for most meteorological stations, resulting in realistic precipitation predictions. For some stations, the algorithm underestimated the annual total precipitation, a weakness also reported by other research works

Management Implications at a Protected, Peri-Urban, Salt Lake Ecosystem: The Case of Larnaca’s Salt Lakes (Cyprus)

Larnaca’s salt lakes constitute one of the most important protected areas in Cyprus and in the southeast Mediterranean. It is in continuity with the urban area of Larnaca city, being the major green infrastructure in the area, supporting (among others) biodiversity, recreation, culture, and food production. The present study aims to provide an overview of the area’s ecosystem types and their potential to provide ecosystem services, focusing on assessing the water ecosystem condition and drafting the relevant baseline accounts. The results of the study include an ecosystem type map of the area, followed by potential supply maps of ecosystem services, for the three major categories (i.e., provisioning, regulating and maintenance, and cultural) and the estimation and assessment of ecosystem condition variables for wetlands, as proposed by the EU-wide methodology to map and assess the ecosystem condition, in line with the System of Environmental Economic Accounting—Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EA). A critical exceedance (over 10%) of the imperviousness and the increase in the soil moisture deficit within the wider salt lakes area have been identified and can constitute useful variables associated with the anthropogenic, climatic, and other effects on the condition of the salt lakes. Discussion for integrating this information to existing knowledge is provided toward supporting scientifically informed decision and policymaking for the sustainable development of protected areas

National Set of MAES Indicators in Greece: Ecosystem Services and Management Implications

Research Highlights: The developed National Set of Indicators for the Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES) implementation in Greece at the national level sets the official, national basis on which future studies will be conducted for MAES reporting for the achievement of targets within the National and the European Union (EU) biodiversity Strategy. Background and Objectives: Greece is currently developing and implementing a MAES nation-wide program based on the region’s unique characteristics following the proposed methodologies by the European Commission, in the frame of the LIFE-IP 4 NATURA project (Integrated actions for the conservation and management of Natura 2000 sites, species, habitats and ecosystems in Greece). In this paper, we present the steps followed to compile standardized MAES indicators for Greece that include: (a) collection and review of the available MAES-related datasets, (b) shortcomings and limitations encountered and overcome, (c) identification of data gaps and (d) assumptions and framework setting. Correspondence to EU and National Strategies and Policies are also examined to provide an initial guidance for detailed thematic studies. Materials and Methods: We followed the requirements of the EU MAES framework for ecosystem services and ecosystem condition indicator selection. Ecosystem services reported under the selected indicators were assigned following the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services. Spatial analysis techniques were applied to create relevant thematic maps. Results: A set of 40 MAES indicators was drafted, distributed in six general indicator groups, i.e., Biodiversity, Environmental quality, Food, material and energy, Forestry, Recreation and Water resources. The protocols for the development and implementation of an indicator were also drafted and adopted for future MAES studies in Greece, providing guidance for adaptive development and adding extra indicators when and where needed. Thematic maps representing ecosystem services (ES) bundles and ES hotspots were also created to identify areas of ES importance and simultaneously communicate the results at the national and regional levels

Skipped fluorination motifs: synthesis of building blocks, and comparison of lipophilicity trends with vicinal and isolated fluorination motifs

Given there is an optimal lipophilicity range for orally bioavailable drugs, structural modifications applied in the drug development process are not only focused on optimizing bioactivity but also on fine-tuning lipophilicity. Fluorine introduction can be used for both purposes. Insights into how fluorine introduction affects lipophilicity are thus of importance, and systematic series of fluorinated compounds with measured octanol–water partition coefficients are a powerful way to enhance our qualitative understanding in this regard and are essential as input for computational log P estimation programs. Here, we report a detailed comparison of all possible vicinal and skipped (1,3-substituted) fluorination motifs when embedded in structurally equivalent environments (X–CFnH2-n–CFmH2–m–X versus X–CFnH2–n–CH2–CFmH2–m–X, with n,m ≠ 0 and X = CH2OH) to compounds with isolated fluorination (n ≠ 0; m = 0, and including X–CH2–CFnH2–n–CH2–X, n = 0–2). It is shown that skipped fluorination is more powerful for log P reduction purposes compared to single or vicinal fluorination. Efficient stereoselective syntheses of the compounds with skipped fluorination motifs are reported, which where relevant can be made enantioselective using known chiral building blocks. These compounds, and some intermediates, will be of interest as advanced fluorinated building blocks

Modeling water regulation ecosystem services : A review in the context of ecosystem accounting

Natural Capital Accounting (NCA) has evolved rapidly in recent years through substantial efforts of both international organizations and the scientific community. Water regulation ecosystem services (ES) are key elements of regulating services in ecosystem accounting, with most relevant studies strongly relying on models for ES quantification up to now. In this paper, we provide a review of modeling efforts for water regulation ES based on 148 scientific papers, properly systematized, analyzed and interpreted by using a detailed and structured original template. We examined emerging trends and gaps in model applications and the readiness to integrate them into the NCA and SEEA-EA frameworks. We propose a classification scheme which organizes the 92 different models and modeling approaches identified in the review process into eight model categories so that this scheme can be efficiently used in the water ES assessment of and for further integration into the accounting framework. Among the models, the hydrologic model SWAT and the modeling tool InVEST are by far the most popular. The results of the review revealed differences between the general ES literature and the accounting-related papers. Moreover, our analysis sets the basis for useful recommendations of which model categories are the most appropriate for the water regulation ES, included in the SEEA-EA reference list. Based on the number of relevant papers, the reliability and the confidence level of the recommendations for the use of models have been incorporated in our analysis. We highlight as model category with the highest confidence the ones relative to quantification water flow and flood control service aiming at ES accounting. Models for erosion control ES can only be recommended with a lower confidence, while for water purification the results lack clear evidence for using a particular group of models. Based on the research findings we identified the main research priorities on model integration in the accounting of water regulation ES: 1) further development of guidelines for the use of models in ecosystem accounting; 2) analyses of the spatial aspects of the model towards a clear distinction between ecosystem service supply and use; and 3) development of integrated modeling approaches for water regulation ES accounting