Poverty Mapping Using Convolutional Neural Networks Trained on High and Medium Resolution Satellite Images, With an Application in Mexico

Mapping the spatial distribution of poverty in developing countries remains an important and costly challenge. These "poverty maps" are key inputs for poverty targeting, public goods provision, political accountability, and impact evaluation, that are all the more important given the geographic dispersion of the remaining bottom billion severely poor individuals. In this paper we train Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to estimate poverty directly from high and medium resolution satellite images. We use both Planet and Digital Globe imagery with spatial resolutions of 3-5 sq. m. and 50 sq. cm. respectively, covering all 2 million sq. km. of Mexico. Benchmark poverty estimates come from the 2014 MCS-ENIGH combined with the 2015 Intercensus and are used to estimate poverty rates for 2,456 Mexican municipalities. CNNs are trained using the 896 municipalities in the 2014 MCS-ENIGH. We experiment with several architectures (GoogleNet, VGG) and use GoogleNet as a final architecture where weights are fine-tuned from ImageNet. We find that 1) the best models, which incorporate satellite-estimated land use as a predictor, explain approximately 57% of the variation in poverty in a validation sample of 10 percent of MCS-ENIGH municipalities; 2) Across all MCS-ENIGH municipalities explanatory power reduces to 44% in a CNN prediction and landcover model; 3) Predicted poverty from the CNN predictions alone explains 47% of the variation in poverty in the validation sample, and 37% over all MCS-ENIGH municipalities; 4) In urban areas we see slight improvements from using Digital Globe versus Planet imagery, which explain 61% and 54% of poverty variation respectively. We conclude that CNNs can be trained end-to-end on satellite imagery to estimate poverty, although there is much work to be done to understand how the training process influences out of sample validation.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, Presented at NIPS 2017 Workshop on Machine Learning for the Developing Worl

Achieving the MDGs – A Note

The material and symbolic importance of these targets make it vital to assess the analytical coherence of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) “project”. In this spirit, this paper highlights complexities and difficulties of the MDG approach. Specifically, it outlines a framework for analysing the MDGs and subsequently discusses measuring progress; achieving and valuing multi-dimensional outcomes; sustainability; devising policies during structural transformation; and implementing policies in a decentralised policy system. These discussions draw attention to limitations of current methods of analysing the MDGs. Indeed, the history of today’s rich countries shows that development is a drawn out, uneven and contradictory process full of reversals and discontinuity. The MDGs, with their ambitious, linear, broad, and essentially ahistorical set of socio-economic goals belie this complexity; contemporary developed countries measured yesterday with today’s MDG yardstick might well have been branded “failures”.Millennium Development Goals(MDGs), development policy, Tinbergen’s rule, structural transformation

The role of victims’ lawyers in criminal proceedings in the Netherlands

The role of the victim in the criminal trial process has evolved considerably in recent decades. On a European level, an important driver has been the EU Directive 2012/29/EU, according to which European countries are legally bound to afford certain rights to crime victims. In the Netherlands the EU Directive has instigated several extensions of existing victims’ rights, and in the Code of Criminal Procedure a separate section has been devoted to the victim. The current study specifically addresses one of the victims’ rights, i.e. the right to be legally represented. The Dutch government has financially invested in access to and specialization of victim lawyers in order to stimulate the realization of victims’ rights, specifically for victims of severe crimes and sex offences. The goal of the current study was to investigate the added value of victim lawyers and the extent to which they contribute to fulfilment of victims’ rights in the criminal law process. A literature study was conducted to examine legislation pertaining to victims’ rights; a questionnaire study was conducted to investigate the perspective of victim lawyers (n=148); and interviews were conducted to examine the perspective of the police, Victim Support, Public Prosecuting Service, and criminal courts (n=17). The results show that victim lawyers were important to the realization of victims’ rights. They were considered most necessary with respect to the right to claim compensation and with respect to the right to get access to the case file. They were also required because victims’ rights have not yet been smoothly implemented into legal practice. In addition, victim lawyers’ presence in the courtroom was considered important as it contributed to victims experiencing that they were taken seriously. It has been concluded that the support of victim lawyers is an important contribution to victim participation in criminal procedures

Bolívar y Santander ante el privilegio concedido a Elbers

El privilegio exclusivo para navegar por buques de vapor en el río Magdalena, concedido por el Congreso de 1823 a Juan Bernardo Elbers, dio lugar a tantas controversias que puede afirmarse, fatigaron a presidentes, congresos y tribunales de justicia. De todo solo quedó una imprecisa estampa de la realidad, más desdibujada aun por los vaivenes de la pasión política