The Citius End: World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest

World records (WR) in sports illustrate the ultimate expression of human integrated muscle biology, through speed or strength performances. Analysis and prediction of man's physiological boundaries in sports and impact of external (historical or environmental) conditions on WR occurrence are subject to scientific controversy. Based on the analysis of 3263 WR established for all quantifiable official contests since the first Olympic Games, we show here that WR progression rate follows a piecewise exponential decaying pattern with very high accuracy (mean adjusted r2 values = 0.91±0.08 (s.d.)). Starting at 75% of their estimated asymptotic values in 1896, WR have now reached 99%, and, present conditions prevailing, half of all WR will not be improved by more than 0,05% in 2027. Our model, which may be used to compare future athletic performances or assess the impact of international antidoping policies, forecasts that human species' physiological frontiers will be reached in one generation. This will have an impact on the future conditions of athlete training and on the organization of competitions. It may also alter the Olympic motto and spirit

Psychological Balance in High Level Athletes: Gender-Based Differences and Sport-Specific Patterns

OBJECTIVES: Few epidemiological studies have focused on the psychological health of high level athletes. This study aimed to identify the principal psychological problems encountered within French high level athletes, and the variations in their prevalence based on sex and the sport practiced. METHODS: Multivariate analyses were conducted on nationwide data obtained from the athletes' yearly psychological evaluations. RESULTS: A representative sample of 13% of the French athlete population was obtained. 17% of athletes have at least one ongoing or recent disorder, generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) being the most prevalent (6%), followed by non-specific eating disorders (4.2%). Overall, 20.2% of women had at least one psychopathology, against 15.1% in men. This female predominance applied to anxiety and eating disorders, depression, sleep problems and self-harming behaviors. The highest rates of GAD appeared in aesthetic sports (16.7% vs. 6.8% in other sports for men and 38.9% vs. 10.3% for women); the lowest prevalence was found in high risk sports athletes (3.0% vs. 3.5%). Eating disorders are most common among women in racing sports (14% vs. 9%), but for men were found mostly in combat sports (7% vs. 4.8%). DISCUSSION: This study highlights important differences in psychopathology between male and female athletes, demonstrating that the many sex-based differences reported in the general population apply to elite athletes. While the prevalence of psychological problems is no higher than in the general population, the variations in psychopathology in different sports suggest that specific constraints could influence the development of some disorders

Success in Developing Regions: World Records Evolution through a Geopolitical Prism

A previous analysis of World Records (WR) has revealed the potential limits of human physiology through athletes' personal commitment. The impact of political factors on sports has only been studied through Olympic medals and results. Here we studied 2876 WR from 63 nations in four summer disciplines. We propose three new indicators and show the impact of historical, geographical and economical factors on the regional WR evolution. The south-eastward path of weighted annual barycenter (i.e. the average of country coordinates weighting by the WR number) shows the emergence of East Africa and China in WR archives. Home WR ratio decreased from 79.9% before the second World War to 23.3% in 2008, underlining sports globalization. Annual Cumulative Proportions (ACP, i.e. the cumulative sum of the WR annual rate) highlight the regional rates of progression. For all regions, the mean slope of ACP during the Olympic era is 0.0101, with a maximum between 1950 and 1989 (0.0156). For European countries, this indicator reflects major historical events (slowdown for western countries after 1945, slowdown for eastern countries after 1990). Mean North-American ACP slope is 0.0029 over the century with an acceleration between 1950 and 1989 at 0.0046. Russia takes off in 1935 and slows down in 1988 (0.0038). For Eastern Europe, maximal progression is seen between 1970 and 1989 (0.0045). China starts in 1979 with a maximum between 1990 and 2008 (0.0021), while other regions have largely declined (mean ACP slope for all other countries  = 0.0011). A similar trend is observed for the evolution of the 10 best performers. The national analysis of WR reveals a precise and quantifiable link between the sport performances of a country, its historical or geopolitical context, and its steps of development

Athlete Atypicity on the Edge of Human Achievement: Performances Stagnate after the Last Peak, in 1988

The growth law for the development of top athletes performances remains unknown in quantifiable sport events. Here we present a growth model for 41351 best performers from 70 track and field (T&F) and swimming events and detail their characteristics over the modern Olympic era. We show that 64% of T&F events no longer improved since 1993, while 47% of swimming events stagnated after 1990, prior to a second progression step starting in 2000. Since then, 100% of swimming events continued to progress

From Oxford to Hawaii Ecophysiological Barriers Limit Human Progression in Ten Sport Monuments

In order to understand the determinants and trends of human performance evolution, we analyzed ten outdoor events among the oldest and most popular in sports history. Best performances of the Oxford-Cambridge boat race (since 1836), the channel crossing in swimming (1875), the hour cycling record (1893), the Elfstedentocht speed skating race (1909), the cross country ski Vasaloppet (1922), the speed ski record (1930), the Streif down-hill in Kitzbühel (1947), the eastward and westward sailing transatlantic records (1960) and the triathlon Hawaii ironman (1978) all follow a similar evolutive pattern, best described through a piecewise exponential decaying model (r2 = 0.95±0.07). The oldest events present highest progression curvature during their early phase. Performance asymptotic limits predicted from the model may be achieved in fourty years (2049±32 y). Prolonged progression may be anticipated in disciplines which further rely on technology such as sailing and cycling. Human progression in outdoor sports tends to asymptotic limits depending on physiological and environmental parameters and may temporarily benefit from further technological progresses

Impact of Environmental Parameters on Marathon Running Performance

PURPOSE: The objectives of this study were to describe the distribution of all runners' performances in the largest marathons worldwide and to determine which environmental parameters have the maximal impact. METHODS: We analysed the results of six European (Paris, London, Berlin) and American (Boston, Chicago, New York) marathon races from 2001 to 2010 through 1,791,972 participants' performances (all finishers per year and race). Four environmental factors were gathered for each of the 60 races: temperature (°C), humidity (%), dew point (°C), and the atmospheric pressure at sea level (hPA); as well as the concentrations of four atmospheric pollutants: NO(2)-SO(2)-O(3) and PM(10) (μg x m(-3)). RESULTS: All performances per year and race are normally distributed with distribution parameters (mean and standard deviation) that differ according to environmental factors. Air temperature and performance are significantly correlated through a quadratic model. The optimal temperatures for maximal mean speed of all runners vary depending on the performance level. When temperature increases above these optima, running speed decreases and withdrawal rates increase. Ozone also impacts performance but its effect might be linked to temperature. The other environmental parameters do not have any significant impact. CONCLUSIONS: The large amount of data analyzed and the model developed in this study highlight the major influence of air temperature above all other climatic parameter on human running capacity and adaptation to race conditions

Evolution des performances sportives : apport de l'épidémiologie pour l'analyse des performances sportives et des influences physiologiques, technologiques, génétiques et environnementales sur les progressions humaines au cours de l'ère olympique.

The objective of this thesis is to study the evolution of athletic performance during theOlympic era and try to interpret the physiological, technological, genetic and environmentalinfluences.Mathematical modeling of quantifiable sports performance shows similar trends in all events:they follow a piecewise multi-exponential progression punctuated by historical events. Thisglobal vision allows the discovery of a limiting phenomenon common to all disciplines,performance can not continue to grow, and some have already stopped growing. Theselimitations observed in the field of sports are an indicator of physiological limitations of thehuman species.The main factors that would allow for further performance improvements are technologicalinnovations.Furthermore genetic predisposition of athletes and their phenotype resulting from interactionsbetween genes and environment, enable them to perform these maximal athleticperformances. The majority of world records were beaten by athletes from nations that areamong the major world powers, providing a geographical, economic and socio-politicalenvironment promoting the development of sport. Thus we suggest that sport is an indicatorof the secular economical and political development of a country.The results of this thesis analyzing a large number of data provide new insight intoprogression abilities: human physiological performance does not evolve in a linear way.L’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier l’évolution des performances sportives au cours de l’èreolympique et tenter d’en interpréter les influences physiologiques, technologiques, génétiqueset environnementales.La modélisation mathématique des performances sportives quantifiables montre desévolutions similaires dans toutes les épreuves : elles suivent une loi de progression multiexponentiellepar séries scandée par les événements historiques. Cette vision intégratricepermet la découverte d’un phénomène limitant commun à toutes les disciplines, lesperformances ne peuvent pas continuer à progresser continuellement, certaines ayant déjàcessé de croître. Ces limites observées dans le domaine sportif sont un indicateur des limitesphysiologiques de l’organisme humain.Les principaux facteurs qui permettraient de nouvelles améliorations des performances sontles innovations technologiques.Les prédispositions génétiques des athlètes et leur phénotype qui résulte d’interactions entreleurs gènes et l’environnement leur permettent d’accomplir ces performances sportivesmaximales. La majorité des records du monde a été battue pas les athlètes de nations quicomptent parmi les grandes puissances mondiales, fournissant un environnementgéographique, économique et sociopolitique, favorisant l’épanouissement sportif. Le sport estun indicateur du développement économique et politique d’un pays.Les résultats de cette thèse analysant un nombre important de données apportent une nouvellevision sur nos capacités de progression : les performances physiologiques humaines nes’accroissent pas de manière linéaire

Activités physiques ou sportives : quels bénéfices ? Quels risques ?

National audienceLes bénéfices pour la santé d'une activité physique régulière ou d'une reprise d'activité s'appliquent à tous : hommes ou femmes, jeunes ou vieux. Les études montrent une réduction moyenne de la mortalité de 30 % entre les plus actifs et les moins actifs. Une activité physique de 2 à 2,5 heures par semaine, d'intensité modérée à élevée, permet une diminution significative du risque de mortalité et de certaines pathologies. Ces bienfaits doivent être mis en balance avec le risque de survenue d'accidents, qui devrait être limité par des programmes de prévention

Activités physiques ou sportives : quels bénéfices ? Quels risques ?

National audienceLes bénéfices pour la santé d'une activité physique régulière ou d'une reprise d'activité s'appliquent à tous : hommes ou femmes, jeunes ou vieux. Les études montrent une réduction moyenne de la mortalité de 30 % entre les plus actifs et les moins actifs. Une activité physique de 2 à 2,5 heures par semaine, d'intensité modérée à élevée, permet une diminution significative du risque de mortalité et de certaines pathologies. Ces bienfaits doivent être mis en balance avec le risque de survenue d'accidents, qui devrait être limité par des programmes de prévention