Unobserved Components Model for Forecasting Sugarcane Yield in Haryana

Unlike classical regression analysis, the state space models have time-dependent parameters and provide a flexible class of dynamic and structural time series models. The unobserved component model (UCM) is a special type of state space models widely used to analyze and forecast time series. The present investigation has been carried out to study the trend of sugarcane(gur) yield in five districts (Ambala, Karnal, Panipat, Yamunanagar and Kurukshetra) of Haryana state using the unobserved component models with level, trend and irregular components. For this purpose, the time series data on sugarcane yield from 1966-67 to 2016-17 of Ambala and Karnal, 1971-72 to 2016-17 of Kurukshetra and 1980-81 to 2016-17 of Panipat and Yamunanagar districts have been used.   For all the districts, the irregular component was found to be highly significant (p=0.01) while both level and trend component variances were observed non-significant. Significance analysis of the individual component(s) has also been performed for possible dropping of the level and trend components by setting their variances equal to zero. The state space models may be effectively used pertaining to Indian agriculture data, as it takes into account the time dependency of the underlying parameters which may further enhance the predictive accuracy of the most popularly used ARIMA models with parameter constancy. Moreover, the unobserved component model is capable of handling both stationary as well as non-stationary time series and thus found more suitable for sugarcane yield modeling which is a trended yield (i.e. non-stationary in nature)

Respiratory index of severity in children score for assessment of severity in pediatric pneumonia- a hospital-based study

Background: This hospital-based study aimed to evaluate the respiratory index of severity in children (RISC) score’s performance in predicting severity and mortality risk in pediatric pneumonia patients in a developing nation. Methods: The study included 200 children under 5 years of age who were admitted to the ward and pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and did not have documented congenital heart disease, chronic respiratory illness, congenital lung problems, immunosuppressive conditions, or known neuromuscular disorder with respiratory system involvement. The RISC score was determined, and its correlation with chest x-ray score, mortality, and PICU admission was calculated for assessing the severity of pneumonia. Results: The study found that the RISC score is a potentially useful tool for predicting severity and mortality risk in pediatric pneumonia patients. Conclusions: The findings may contribute to the development of more accurate and reliable scoring systems to guide appropriate treatment and improve outcomes in pediatric pneumonia patients

ARIMA and State-Space models for sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) yield forecasting in Northern agro-climatic zone of Haryana

Advance estimates of significant cereal and commercial crops are given by the Directorate of Economics and Statistics and the central Ministry of Agriculture, Cooperation & Farmers’ Welfare. However, the final estimates are released a few months after the actual harvest of the crops. In this study, ARIMA and State-Space models have been developed for sugarcane yield forecasting in Ambala and Karnal districts of Haryana. The above-mentioned models have been developed using yield data of sugarcane crop for the time period 1966-67 to 2009-10 of Ambala and Karnal districts. The validity of fitted models has been tested over the years 2010-11 to 2016-17. The forecasting performance of the developed models has been studied using percent deviations of sugarcane yield forecasts in relation to the actual yield, and root means squared errors. It has been observed that state-space models outperform the popular ARIMA models for forecasting of sugarcane yield in Northern Agro-climatic Zone of Haryana

Intention to Consume Junk Food: A Study of Drivers for Control Implications

Junk food has been making fast inroads in Indian market. Socio-culturally India has been a collectivist and tradition dominated society, where the concept of food is very different from junk food. This study aims to explore the rising incidence of junk food based on the theory of planned behavior and contributes to understanding the consumption drivers for possible social marketing implications. The findings suggest that out of the three constructs: attitude, social norms and perceived behavioral control, only perceived behavioral control was found to be the significant determinant of intentions. The study has implications for social marketers. For controlling the rising incidence of junk food, the strategy should focus on developing a sense of perceived control. This requires building self-belief and increasing barriers to access of junk food. This paper contributes to the body of literature in understanding consumption drivers of junk food, particularly in a collectivist and family-oriented society like India and how efforts to control rising incidence of junk food can be made more effective

Coin Based Solar Mobile Charger

Energy plays a very important role for powering the system to work well either in Humans or in any artificial system. Communication is fundamental need for humans and a mobile system provides the power to communicate with the world so easily. Mobile phone is like a part of our day to day life. Without it, one feels incomplete and unsecure because most of the work is done with the help of it. Smartphone is the most common gadget in cities and also in the small towns now. But a big backlog of this phone is high battery consumption due to several features. Thus, most of the time the smart phones users runs out of battery, suppose on a Railway station a person is waiting for train by enjoying music on phone or surfing internet for any important information and suddenly run out of battery. That time if the charging facility is available somewhere then it is like boon. So, this necessity is being conceptualized in this paper. A Coin Insertion based mobile charger can be useful in today’s scenario. It can be used on bus stations, railway compartments, railway stations, etc

Autopsy: a value to primordial and primary prevention for lung diseases

Background: Lung disorders spectrums include congestion, oedema, various inflammatory lesions, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and neoplastic lesions. The clinical and radiological findings in respiratory diseases are nonspecific and therefore a histopathological study is essential. Autopsies are necessary to establish cause of death of the person with help of antemortem history and investigations to rule out lung lesions. Aims and objectives were to identify the histopathological spectrum of lung disease and frequency of various lung pathologies in respect to age and sex.Methods: The retrospective study of 285 lung autopsy specimens received were fixed and processed. Routine paraffin sectioning was done followed by hematoxylene and eosin (H and E) staining. Relevant clinical and postmortem findings, gross and microscopic examination findings were recorded.Results: Most common lung pathology found was Edema and congestion in 149 cases (52.2%), pneumonia in 87 cases (30.5%) followed by tuberculosis in 33 cases (11.5%). Out of total 285 cases, 222 (77.9%) were males and 63 cases (22.2%) were females. The male to female ratio was 3.5:1. Maximum numbers of cases, in age group of 31-45 years were 108 cases (37.89%) followed by in age group 46-60 years were 90 cases (31.57%) followed by age group of 16-30 years 15.8%.Conclusions: Advances in diagnostic technology have not reduced the value of autopsy for the study and evaluation of the disease process. It has become crucial for adopting correct prophylactic actions for primordial and primary prevention of pulmonary dysfunctions

Impact of Janani SurakshaYojana (JSY): A study across two Delhi hospitals

This paperattemptsto understand the functioning of Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) in New Delhi. The study involved a primary survey of the JSY beneficiaries in two major districts of Delhi. The results of the survey suggest that the scheme has not been very successful in facilitating institutional delivery in Delhi.The scheme has failed to benefit the poor and the underprivileged groups and its limited benefits have only reached the better off households. The implementation of the scheme also has been uneven and faulty and many beneficiaries face delays in receiving benefits. However, the transition towards the direct benefit transfer (DBT) method of payment shows promise in improving implementation of the scheme

An integrated computational approach of molecular dynamics simulations, receptor binding studies and pharmacophore mapping analysis in search of potent inhibitors against tuberculosis

Tuberculosis is an infectious chronic disease caused by obligate pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis that affects millions of people worldwide. Although many first and second line drugs are available for its treatment, but their irrational use has adversely lead to the emerging cases of multiple drug resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis. Therefore, there is an intense need to develop novel potent analogues for its treatment. This has prompted us to develop potent analogues against TB. The Mycobacterium tuberculosis genome provides us with number of validated targets to combat against TB. Study of Mtb genome disclosed six epoxide hydrolases (A to F) which convert harmful epoxide into diols and act as a potential drug target for rational drug design. Our current strategy is to develop such analogues which inhibits epoxide hydrolase enzyme present in Mtb genome. To achieve this, we adopted an integrated computational approach involving QSAR, pharmacophore mapping, molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation studies. The approach envisaged vital information about the role of molecular descriptors, essential pharmacophoric features and binding energy for compounds to bind into the active site of epoxide hydrolase. Molecular docking analysis revealed that analogues exhibited significant binding to Mtb epoxide hydrolase. Further, three docked complexes 2s, 37s and 15s with high, moderate and low docking scores respectively were selected for molecular dynamics simulation studies. RMSD analysis revealed that all complexes are stable with average RMSD below 2 Å throughout the 10 ns simulations. The B-factor analysis showed that the active site residues of epoxide hydrolase are flexible enough to interact with inhibitor. Moreover, to confirm the binding of these urea derivatives, MM-GBSA binding energy analysis were performed. The calculations showed that 37s has more binding affinity (ΔGtotal = −52.24 kcal/mol) towards epoxide hydrolase compared to 2s (ΔGtotal = −51.70 kcal/mol) and 15s (ΔGtotal = −49.97 kcal/mol). The structural features inferred in our study may provide the future directions to the scientists towards the discovery of new chemical entity exhibiting anti-TB property.AICTE and Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/JMGM2019-08-01hj2018Plant Production and Soil Scienc

Heavy Metal Contamination of Food Crops: Transportation via Food Chain, Human Consumption, Toxicity and Management Strategies

Food security is a major concern that requires sustained advancement both statistically and on the basis of Qualitative assessment. In recent years, antagonistic impacts of unforeseen toxins have impacted the quality of crops and have created a burden on human lives. Heavy metals (e.g., Hg, As, Pb, Cd, and Cr) can affect humans, adding to dreariness and in severe cases even death. It additionally investigates the conceivable geological routes of heavy metals in the surrounding subsystems. The top-to-the-bottom conversation is additionally offered on physiological/atomic movement systems engaged with the take-up of metallic foreign substances inside food crops. At long last, the board procedures are proposed to recapture maintainability in soil–food subsystems. This paper reflects the contamination of the food crops with heavy metals, the way of transport of heavy metal to food crops, degree of toxicity after consumption and the strategies to maintain the problem

Variable Immunogenic Potential of Wheat: Prospective for Selection of Innocuous Varieties for Celiac Disease Patients via in vitro Approach

Celiac Disease (CD) is a multifactorial, autoimmune enteropathy activated by cereal proteins in genetically predisposed individuals carrying HLA DQ2/8 genes. A heterogenous gene combination of the cereal prolamins is documented in different wheat genotypes, which is suggestive of their variable immunogenic potential. In the current study, four wheat varieties (C591, C273, 9D, and K78) identified via in silico analysis were analyzed for immunogenicity by measuring T-cell proliferation rate and levels of inflammatory cytokines (Interferon-γ and Tumor Necrosis Factor-α). Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells and biopsy derived T-cell lines isolated from four CD patients in complete remission and two controls were stimulated and cultured in the presence of tissue transglutaminase activated pepsin-trypsin (PT) digest of total gliadin extract from test varieties. The immunogenicity was compared with PBW 621, one of the widely cultivated wheat varieties. Phytohaemagglutinin-p was taken as positive control, along with unstimulated cells as negative control. Rate of cell proliferation (0.318, 0.482; 0.369, 0.337), concentration of IFN- γ (107.4, 99.2; 117.9, 99.7 pg/ml), and TNF- α (453.8, 514.2; 463.8, 514.2 pg/ml) was minimum in cultures supplemented with wheat antigen from C273, when compared with other test varieties and unstimulated cells. Significant difference in toxicity levels among different wheat genotypes to stimulate celiac mucosal T-cells and PBMC's was observed; where C273 manifested least immunogenic response amongst the test varieties analyzed