Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model

BACKGROUND: Previous smallpox ring vaccination models based on contact tracing over a network suggest that ring vaccination would be effective, but have not explicitly included response logistics and limited numbers of vaccinators. METHODS: We developed a continuous-time stochastic simulation of smallpox transmission, including network structure, post-exposure vaccination, vaccination of contacts of contacts, limited response capacity, heterogeneity in symptoms and infectiousness, vaccination prior to the discontinuation of routine vaccination, more rapid diagnosis due to public awareness, surveillance of asymptomatic contacts, and isolation of cases. RESULTS: We found that even in cases of very rapidly spreading smallpox, ring vaccination (when coupled with surveillance) is sufficient in most cases to eliminate smallpox quickly, assuming that 95% of household contacts are traced, 80% of workplace or social contacts are traced, and no casual contacts are traced, and that in most cases the ability to trace 1–5 individuals per day per index case is sufficient. If smallpox is assumed to be transmitted very quickly to contacts, it may at times escape containment by ring vaccination, but could be controlled in these circumstances by mass vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Small introductions of smallpox are likely to be easily contained by ring vaccination, provided contact tracing is feasible. Uncertainties in the nature of bioterrorist smallpox (infectiousness, vaccine efficacy) support continued planning for ring vaccination as well as mass vaccination. If initiated, ring vaccination should be conducted without delays in vaccination, should include contacts of contacts (whenever there is sufficient capacity) and should be accompanied by increased public awareness and surveillance

Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data.</p> <p>Main findings</p> <p>First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3–5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically.</p

Hittitology today: Studies on Hittite and Neo-Hittite Anatolia in Honor of Emmanuel Laroche’s 100th Birthday

Il y a 100 ans, Emmanuel Laroche voyait le jour. Savant à la fois passionné de linguistique indo-européenne et d’Antiquité, il marqua durablement l’hittitologie par ses nombreuses contributions dans des domaines aussi variés que l’histoire des religions proche-orientales, la philologie cunéiforme ou encore la grammaire du hittite, du louvite et du hourrite. Ce colloque organisé en l’honneur de son centenaire a été l’occasion de faire le point sur les avancées de l’hittitologie actuelle, avancées auxquelles il participa tout au long de sa vie et qui se poursuivent après lui. Les axes thématiques qui sont abordés dans ce volume sont ceux qu’Emmanuel Laroche développa de son vivant, à savoir la linguistique des langues anatoliennes, la philologie et l’épigraphie cunéiforme et hiéroglyphique, les religions de l’Anatolie hittite et néo-hittite, l’histoire et la géographie historique, mais aussi l’archéologie proche-orientale, domaine qu’Emmanuel Laroche côtoya de près. Ajoutons à ces domaines celui de l’historiographie qui illustre, entre autres choses, l’impact des travaux d’Emmanuel Laroche dans l’hittitologie d’aujourd’hui.100 years ago, Emmanuel Laroche was born. As a scholar who was fascinated both by Indo-European Linguistics and Ancient Near Eastern and Classical Studies, he had a durable impact on Hittitology through his numerous contributions. His publications dealt with History of Near Eastern Religions, Cuneiform Philology, and Hittite, Luwian, and Hurrian grammar, among many other topics. This conference was organized in honor of his 100th birthday. Its aim was to discuss the recent developments in Hittitology, the ones to whom Emmanuel Laroche contributed and the ones which occurred after his time. The following themes are dealt with in this volume: Anatolian Linguistics, Cuneiform and Hieroglyphic Philology and Epigraphy, Religions of Bronze and Early Iron Age Anatolia, History and Historical Geography of Asia Minor, but also Near Eastern Archaeology, as Emmanuel Laroche was also very close to this discipline. Let us add to those fields Historiography which illustrates, among other things, the impact of Emmanuel Laroche’s work on today’s Hittitology

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Rimski lonček s Ptuja z napisom v neznani pisavi in v staroselskem, domnevno keltskem jeziku

The paper discusses the discovery of an inscribed small pot from the vvestern graveyard of Poetovio. The pot is dated from the 2n&lt;l or 3rd centuries AD. and although the inscription, which is scratched on the pot, has certain similarities with the Venetian alphabet. the script appears to be a local variant. The names mentioned indicate a Celtic influence. The article concludes with a discussion on the likely ethnic composition of Poetovio.Na lončku z zahodnega grobišča Poetovione, datiranem v 2. -3. st., je vpraskan napis, ki govori za samostojno pisavo, čeprav kaže nekaj značilnosti venetskega alfabeta. Zdi se, da sta zapisana osebno ime v nominativu (Artebudz) in ime božanstva v dativu (Brogdos). Obe imeni nakazujeta povezave s keltskim jezikom. Orisana je tudi historična in etnična situacija Poetovione