The Role of Goods Trade Networks for Services Trade Volume

In this paper, we address the role of countries’ goods-trade networks for their services-trade volume. The paper employs a large cross section of bilateral trade data on aggregate cross-border goods and services sales and illustrates that the depth and overlap of two countries’ services networks induce a positive direct impact on their services-trade volume. The evidence takes into account that goods trade flows and networks are potentially endogenous so that the estimated direct effects support a causal interpretation. We find that the magnitude of the multilateral goods-trade network effect on the bilateral services-trade volume is much larger than that of bilateral goods-trade volume

Metagenomic next-generation sequencing of samples from pediatric febrile illness in Tororo, Uganda.

Febrile illness is a major burden in African children, and non-malarial causes of fever are uncertain. In this retrospective exploratory study, we used metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) to evaluate serum, nasopharyngeal, and stool specimens from 94 children (aged 2-54 months) with febrile illness admitted to Tororo District Hospital, Uganda. The most common microbes identified were Plasmodium falciparum (51.1% of samples) and parvovirus B19 (4.4%) from serum; human rhinoviruses A and C (40%), respiratory syncytial virus (10%), and human herpesvirus 5 (10%) from nasopharyngeal swabs; and rotavirus A (50% of those with diarrhea) from stool. We also report the near complete genome of a highly divergent orthobunyavirus, tentatively named Nyangole virus, identified from the serum of a child diagnosed with malaria and pneumonia, a Bwamba orthobunyavirus in the nasopharynx of a child with rash and sepsis, and the genomes of two novel human rhinovirus C species. In this retrospective exploratory study, mNGS identified multiple potential pathogens, including 3 new viral species, associated with fever in Ugandan children

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Associated with Chronic Kidney Disease in Northern Tanzania: A Community-Based Study.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a leading cause of death among adults in sub-Saharan Africa, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing public health threat. Understanding knowledge, attitudes, and practices associated with NCDs is vital to informing optimal policy and public health responses in the region, but few community-based assessments have been performed for CKD. To address this gap, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of adults in northern Tanzania using a validated instrument. Between January and June 2014, we administered a structured survey to a random sample of adults from urban and rural communities. The validated instrument consisted of 25 items designed to measure knowledge, attitudes, and practices associated with kidney disease. Participants were also screened for CKD, diabetes, hypertension, and human immunodeficiency virus. We enrolled 606 participants from 431 urban and rural households. Knowledge of the etiologies, symptoms, and treatments for kidney disease was low (mean score 3.28 out of 10; 95% CI 2.94, 3.63). There were no significant differences by CKD status. Living in an urban setting and level of education had the strongest independent associations with knowledge score. Attitudes were characterized by frequent concern about the health (27.3%; 20.2, 36.0%), economic (73.1%; 68.2, 77.5%), and social impact (25.4%; 18.6, 33.6%) of kidney disease. Practices included the use of traditional healers (15.2%; 9.1, 24.5%) and traditional medicines (33.8%; 25.0, 43.9%) for treatment of kidney disease as well as a willingness to engage with mobile-phone technology in CKD care (94.3%; 90.1, 96.8%). Community-based adults in northern Tanzania have limited knowledge of kidney disease. However, there is a modest knowledge base upon which to build public health programs to expand awareness and understanding of CKD, but these programs must also consider the variety of means by which adults in this population meet their healthcare needs. Finally, our assessment of local attitudes suggested that such public health efforts would be well-received

Monitoring Temporal Changes in the Specificity of an Oral HIV Test: A Novel Application for Use in Postmarketing Surveillance

BACKGROUND: Postmarketing surveillance is routinely conducted to monitor performance of pharmaceuticals and testing devices in the marketplace. However, these surveillance methods are often done retrospectively and, as a result, are not designed to detect issues with performance in real-time. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using HIV antibody screening test data from New York City STD clinics, we developed a formal, statistical method of prospectively detecting temporal clusters of poor performance of a screening test. From 2005 to 2008, New York City, as well as other states, observed unexpectedly high false-positive (FP) rates in an oral fluid-based rapid test used for screening HIV. We attempted to formally assess whether the performance of this HIV screening test statistically deviated from both local expectation and the manufacturer's claim for the test. Results indicate that there were two significant temporal clusters in the FP rate of the oral HIV test, both of which exceeded the manufacturer's upper limit of the 95% CI for the product. Furthermore, the FP rate of the test varied significantly by both STD clinic and test lot, though not by test operator. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous monitoring of surveillance data has the benefit of providing information regarding test performance, and if conducted in real-time, it can enable programs to examine reasons for poor test performance in close proximity to the occurrence. Techniques used in this study could be a valuable addition for postmarketing surveillance of test performance and may become particularly important with the increase in rapid testing methods

Unbiased Metagenomic Sequencing for Pediatric Meningitis in Bangladesh Reveals Neuroinvasive Chikungunya Virus Outbreak and Other Unrealized Pathogens.

The burden of meningitis in low-and-middle-income countries remains significant, but the infectious causes remain largely unknown, impeding institution of evidence-based treatment and prevention decisions. We conducted a validation and application study of unbiased metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) to elucidate etiologies of meningitis in Bangladesh. This RNA mNGS study was performed on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens from patients admitted in the largest pediatric hospital, a World Health Organization sentinel site, with known neurologic infections (n = 36), with idiopathic meningitis (n = 25), and with no infection (n = 30), and six environmental samples, collected between 2012 and 2018. We used the IDseq bioinformatics pipeline and machine learning to identify potentially pathogenic microbes, which we then confirmed orthogonally and followed up through phone/home visits. In samples with known etiology and without infections, there was 83% concordance between mNGS and conventional testing. In idiopathic cases, mNGS identified a potential bacterial or viral etiology in 40%. There were three instances of neuroinvasive Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), whose genomes were >99% identical to each other and to a Bangladeshi strain only previously recognized to cause febrile illness in 2017. CHIKV-specific qPCR of all remaining stored CSF samples from children who presented with idiopathic meningitis in 2017 (n = 472) revealed 17 additional CHIKV meningitis cases, exposing an unrecognized meningitis outbreak. Orthogonal molecular confirmation, case-based clinical data, and patient follow-up substantiated the findings. Case-control CSF mNGS surveys can complement conventional diagnostic methods to identify etiologies of meningitis, conduct surveillance, and predict outbreaks. The improved patient- and population-level data can inform evidence-based policy decisions.IMPORTANCE Globally, there are an estimated 10.6 million cases of meningitis and 288,000 deaths every year, with the vast majority occurring in low- and middle-income countries. In addition, many survivors suffer from long-term neurological sequelae. Most laboratories assay only for common bacterial etiologies using culture and directed PCR, and the majority of meningitis cases lack microbiological diagnoses, impeding institution of evidence-based treatment and prevention strategies. We report here the results of a validation and application study of using unbiased metagenomic sequencing to determine etiologies of idiopathic (of unknown cause) cases. This included CSF from patients with known neurologic infections, with idiopathic meningitis, and without infection admitted in the largest children's hospital of Bangladesh and environmental samples. Using mNGS and machine learning, we identified and confirmed an etiology (viral or bacterial) in 40% of idiopathic cases. We detected three instances of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) that were >99% identical to each other and to a strain previously recognized to cause systemic illness only in 2017. CHIKV qPCR of all remaining stored 472 CSF samples from children who presented with idiopathic meningitis in 2017 at the same hospital uncovered an unrecognized CHIKV meningitis outbreak. CSF mNGS can complement conventional diagnostic methods to identify etiologies of meningitis, and the improved patient- and population-level data can inform better policy decisions

Inclusion of zero total event trials in meta-analyses maintains analytic consistency and incorporates all available data

BACKGROUND: Meta-analysis handles randomized trials with no outcome events in both treatment and control arms inconsistently, including them when risk difference (RD) is the effect measure but excluding them when relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR) are used. This study examined the influence of such trials on pooled treatment effects. METHODS: Analysis with and without zero total event trials of three illustrative published meta-analyses with a range of proportions of zero total event trials, treatment effects, and heterogeneity using inverse variance weighting and random effects that incorporates between-study heterogeneity. RESULTS: Including zero total event trials in meta-analyses moves the pooled estimate of treatment effect closer to nil, decreases its confidence interval and decreases between-study heterogeneity. For RR and OR, inclusion of such trials causes small changes, even when they comprise the large majority of included trials. For RD, the changes are more substantial, and in extreme cases can eliminate a statistically significant effect estimate. CONCLUSION: To include all relevant data regardless of effect measure chosen, reviewers should also include zero total event trials when calculating pooled estimates using OR and RR

Effect of free distribution of safety equipment on usage among motorcycle–taxi drivers in Tanzania—A cluster randomised controlled trial

Deaths due to road traffic injuries, particularly motorcycle crashes, have increased rapidly in many African nations and context-specific strategies to improve preventative behaviors are needed. Although adhering to conspicuity measures by wearing reflective safety vests is a highly effective crash prevention strategy and mandated by law among motorcycle-taxi drivers in some African countries, actual use is currently low. We aimed to test whether eliminating cost-barriers through the provision of free reflective, fluorescent motorcycle safety vests would lead to increased utilization among a high-risk population of motorcycle-taxi drivers in Tanzania

Asthma, Airflow Obstruction, and Eosinophilic Airway Inflammation Prevalence in Western Kenya: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study

Objectives: Determine the prevalence of airway disease (e.g., asthma, airflow obstruction, and eosinophilic airway inflammation) in Kenya, as well as related correlates of airway disease and health-related quality of life.Methods: A three-stage, cluster-randomized cross-sectional study in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya was conducted. Individuals 12 years and older completed questionnaires (including St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire for COPD, SGRQ-C), spirometry, and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) testing. Prevalence ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Multivariable models were used to assess correlates of airflow obstruction and high FeNO.Results: Three hundred ninety-two participants completed questionnaires, 369 completed FeNO testing, and 305 completed spirometry. Mean age was 37.5 years; 64% were women. The prevalence of asthma, airflow obstruction on spirometry, and eosinophilic airway inflammation was 21.7%, 12.3% and 15.7% respectively in the population. Women had significantly higher SGRQ-C scores compared to men (15.0 vs. 7.7). Wheezing or whistling in the last year and SGRQ-C scores were strongly associated with FeNO levels >50 ppb after adjusting for age, gender, BMI, and tobacco use.Conclusion: Airway disease is a significant health problem in Kenya affecting a young population who lack a significant tobacco use history

X-Ray Repair Cross-Complementing Group 1 (XRCC1) Genetic Polymorphisms and Risk of Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: A Meta-Analysis

Background: Recently, there have been a number of studies on the association between XRCC1 polymorphisms and childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) risk. However, the results of previous reports are inconsistent. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis to clarify the effects of XRCC1 variants on childhood ALL risk. Methods: A meta-analysis was performed to examine the association between XRCC1 polymorphisms (Arg399Gln, Arg194Trp, and Arg280His) and childhood ALL risk. We critically reviewed 7 studies with a total of 880 cases and 1311 controls for Arg399Gln polymorphism, 3 studies with a total of 345 cases and 554 controls for Arg280His polymorphism, and 6 studies with a total of 783 cases and 1180 controls for Arg194Trp polymorphism, respectively. Odds ratio (OR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were used. Results: Significant association between XRCC1 Arg399Gln polymorphism and childhood ALL risk was observed in total population analyses (OR additive model = 1.501, 95 % CI 1.112–2.026, P OR = 0.008; OR dominant model = 1.316, 95 % CI = 1.104–1.569, POR = 0.002) and Asian subgroup analyses (ORadditive model = 2.338, 95%CI = 1.254–4.359, POR = 0.008; ORdominant model = 2.108, 95%CI = 1.498–2.967, POR = 0.000). No association was detected in Caucasians, Metizo and mixed populations. Ethnicity was considered as a significant source of heterogeneity in the meta-regression model. For the other two XRCC1 polymorphisms, no association with childhood ALL risk was found

Public health campaigns and obesity - a critique

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Controlling obesity has become one of the highest priorities for public health practitioners in developed countries. In the absence of safe, effective and widely accessible high-risk approaches (e.g. drugs and surgery) attention has focussed on community-based approaches and social marketing campaigns as the most appropriate form of intervention. However there is limited evidence in support of substantial effectiveness of such interventions.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>To date there is little evidence that community-based interventions and social marketing campaigns specifically targeting obesity provide substantial or lasting benefit. Concerns have been raised about potential negative effects created by a focus of these interventions on body shape and size, and of the associated media targeting of obesity.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>A more appropriate strategy would be to enact high-level policy and legislative changes to alter the obesogenic environments in which we live by providing incentives for healthy eating and increased levels of physical activity. Research is also needed to improve treatments available for individuals already obese.</p