Towards Precision Psychiatry: gray Matter Development And Cognition In Adolescence

Precision Psychiatry promises a new era of optimized psychiatric diagnosis and treatment through comprehensive, data-driven patient stratification. Among the core requirements towards that goal are: 1) neurobiology-guided preprocessing and analysis of brain imaging data for noninvasive characterization of brain structure and function, and 2) integration of imaging, genomic, cognitive, and clinical data in accurate and interpretable predictive models for diagnosis, and treatment choice and monitoring. In this thesis, we shall touch on specific aspects that fit under these two broad points. First, we investigate normal gray matter development around adolescence, a critical period for the development of psychopathology. For years, the common narrative in human developmental neuroimaging has been that gray matter declines in adolescence. We demonstrate that different MRI-derived gray matter measures exhibit distinct age and sex effects and should not be considered equivalent, as has often been done in the past, but complementary. We show for the first time that gray matter density increases from childhood to young adulthood, in contrast with gray matter volume and cortical thickness, and that females, who are known to have lower gray matter volume than males, have higher density throughout the brain. A custom preprocessing pipeline and a novel high-resolution gray matter parcellation were created to analyze brain scans of 1189 youths collected as part of the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort. This work emphasizes the need for future studies combining quantitative histology and neuroimaging to fully understand the biological basis of MRI contrasts and their derived measures. Second, we use the same gray matter measures to assess how well they can predict cognitive performance. We train mass-univariate and multivariate models to show that gray matter volume and density are complementary in their ability to predict performance. We suggest that parcellation resolution plays a big role in prediction accuracy and that it should be tuned separately for each modality for a fair comparison among modalities and for an optimal prediction when combining all modalities. Lastly, we introduce rtemis, an R package for machine learning and visualization, aimed at making advanced data analytics more accessible. Adoption of accurate and interpretable machine learning methods in basic research and medical practice will help advance biomedical science and make precision medicine a reality

Building more accurate decision trees with the additive tree.

The expansion of machine learning to high-stakes application domains such as medicine, finance, and criminal justice, where making informed decisions requires clear understanding of the model, has increased the interest in interpretable machine learning. The widely used Classification and Regression Trees (CART) have played a major role in health sciences, due to their simple and intuitive explanation of predictions. Ensemble methods like gradient boosting can improve the accuracy of decision trees, but at the expense of the interpretability of the generated model. Additive models, such as those produced by gradient boosting, and full interaction models, such as CART, have been investigated largely in isolation. We show that these models exist along a spectrum, revealing previously unseen connections between these approaches. This paper introduces a rigorous formalization for the additive tree, an empirically validated learning technique for creating a single decision tree, and shows that this method can produce models equivalent to CART or gradient boosted stumps at the extremes by varying a single parameter. Although the additive tree is designed primarily to provide both the model interpretability and predictive performance needed for high-stakes applications like medicine, it also can produce decision trees represented by hybrid models between CART and boosted stumps that can outperform either of these approaches

Predicting post–liver transplant outcomes in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure using Expert-Augmented Machine Learning

Liver transplantation (LT) is a treatment for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), but high post-LT mortality has been reported. Existing post-LT models in ACLF have been limited. We developed an Expert-Augmented Machine Learning (EAML) model to predict post-LT outcomes. We identified ACLF patients who underwent LT in the University of California Health Data Warehouse. We applied the RuleFit machine learning (ML) algorithm to extract rules from decision trees and create intermediate models. We asked human experts to rate the rules generated by RuleFit and incorporated these ratings to generate final EAML models. We identified 1384 ACLF patients. For death at 1 year, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve were 0.707 (confidence interval [CI] 0.625-0.793) for EAML and 0.719 (CI 0.640-0.800) for RuleFit. For death at 90 days, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve were 0.678 (CI 0.581-0.776) for EAML and 0.707 (CI 0.615-0.800) for RuleFit. In pairwise comparisons, both EAML and RuleFit models outperformed cross-sectional models. Significant discrepancies between experts and ML occurred in rankings of biomarkers used in clinical practice. EAML may serve as a method for ML-guided hypothesis generation in further ACLF research

Expert-augmented machine learning.

Machine learning is proving invaluable across disciplines. However, its success is often limited by the quality and quantity of available data, while its adoption is limited by the level of trust afforded by given models. Human vs. machine performance is commonly compared empirically to decide whether a certain task should be performed by a computer or an expert. In reality, the optimal learning strategy may involve combining the complementary strengths of humans and machines. Here, we present expert-augmented machine learning (EAML), an automated method that guides the extraction of expert knowledge and its integration into machine-learned models. We used a large dataset of intensive-care patient data to derive 126 decision rules that predict hospital mortality. Using an online platform, we asked 15 clinicians to assess the relative risk of the subpopulation defined by each rule compared to the total sample. We compared the clinician-assessed risk to the empirical risk and found that, while clinicians agreed with the data in most cases, there were notable exceptions where they overestimated or underestimated the true risk. Studying the rules with greatest disagreement, we identified problems with the training data, including one miscoded variable and one hidden confounder. Filtering the rules based on the extent of disagreement between clinician-assessed risk and empirical risk, we improved performance on out-of-sample data and were able to train with less data. EAML provides a platform for automated creation of problem-specific priors, which help build robust and dependable machine-learning models in critical applications

Predictors of All-Cause 30-Day Readmissions in Patients with Heart Failure at an Urban Safety Net Hospital: The Importance of Social Determinants of Health and Mental Health.

INTRODUCTION: Heart failure (HF) is a frequent cause of readmissions. Despite caring for underresourced patients and dependence on government funding, safety net hospitals frequently incur penalties for failing to meet pay-for-performance readmission metrics. Limited research exists on the causes of HF readmissions in safety net hospitals. Therefore, we sought to investigate predictors of 30-day all-cause readmission in HF patients in the safety net setting. METHODS: We performed a retrospective chart review of patients admitted for HF from October 2018 to April 2019. We extracted data on demographics and medical comorbidities and performed patient-specific review of social determinants and mental health in 4 domains: race/ethnicity, housing status, substance use, and mental illness. Multivariable Poisson regression modeling was employed to evaluate associations with 30-day all-cause readmission. RESULTS: The study population included 290 patients, among whom the mean age was 59 years and 71% (n = 207) were male; 42% (120) were Black/African American (AA), 22% (64) were Hispanic/Latino, and 96% (278) had public insurance; 28% (79) were not housed, 19% (56) had a diagnosis of mental illness, and active substance use was common. The 30-day readmission rate was 25.5% (n = 88). Factors that were associated with increased risk of readmission included self-identifying as Black/AA (relative risk 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.00-5.20) or Hispanic/Latino (2.53, 1.07-6.00), experiencing homelessness (2.07, 1.21-3.56), living in a shelter (3.20, 1.27-8.02), or intravenous drug use (IVDU) (2.00, 1.08-3.70). CONCLUSION: Race/ethnicity, housing status, and substance use were associated with increased risk of 30-day all-cause readmission in HF patients in a safety net hospital. In contrast to prior studies, medical comorbidities were not associated with increased risk of readmission

Intrinsic connectivity network disruption in progressive supranuclear palsy

Objective Progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) has been conceptualized as a large-scale network disruption, but the specific network targeted has not been fully characterized. We sought to delineate the affected network in patients with clinical PSP. Methods Using task-free functional magnetic resonance imaging, we mapped intrinsic connectivity to the dorsal midbrain tegmentum (dMT), a region that shows focal atrophy in PSP. Two healthy control groups (1 young, 1 older) were used to define and replicate the normal connectivity pattern, and patients with PSP were compared to an independent matched healthy control group on measures of network connectivity. Results Healthy young and older subjects showed a convergent pattern of connectivity to the dMT, including brainstem, cerebellar, diencephalic, basal ganglia, and cortical regions involved in skeletomotor, oculomotor, and executive control. Patients with PSP showed significant connectivity disruptions within this network, particularly within corticosubcortical and cortico-brainstem interactions. Patients with more severe functional impairment showed lower mean dMT network connectivity scores. Interpretation This study defines a PSP-related intrinsic connectivity network in the healthy brain and demonstrates the sensitivity of network-based imaging methods to PSP-related physiological and clinical changes. Ann Neurol 2013;73:603-61

Dominant hemisphere lateralization of cortical parasympathetic control as revealed by frontotemporal dementia.

The brain continuously influences and perceives the physiological condition of the body. Related cortical representations have been proposed to shape emotional experience and guide behavior. Although previous studies have identified brain regions recruited during autonomic processing, neurological lesion studies have yet to delineate the regions critical for maintaining autonomic outflow. Even greater controversy surrounds hemispheric lateralization along the parasympathetic-sympathetic axis. The behavioral variant of frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD), featuring progressive and often asymmetric degeneration that includes the frontoinsular and cingulate cortices, provides a unique lesion model for elucidating brain structures that control autonomic tone. Here, we show that bvFTD is associated with reduced baseline cardiac vagal tone and that this reduction correlates with left-lateralized functional and structural frontoinsular and cingulate cortex deficits and with reduced agreeableness. Our results suggest that networked brain regions in the dominant hemisphere are critical for maintaining an adaptive level of baseline parasympathetic outflow