Power Transformer Failure Prediction: Classification in Imbalanced Time Series

This paper describes a study on applying data mining techniques to power transformer failure prediction. The data set used consisted not only on DGA tests, but also in other tests done to the transformer’s insulating oil. This dataset presented several challenges, such as highly imbalanced classes (common in failure prediction problems), and the temporal nature of the observations. To overcome these challenges, several techniques were applied for prediction and better understand the dataset. Pre-processing and temporality incorporation in the dataset is discussed. For prediction, a 1-class and 2-class SVM, decision trees and random forests, as well as a LSTM neural network were applied to the dataset. As the prediction performance was low (high false-positive rate), we conducted a test to ascertain if the amount of data collected was sufficient. Results indicate that the frequency of data collection was not adequate, hinting that the degradation period was shorter than the periodicity of data collection

Identification and Phylogenetic Analysis of Tityus pachyurus and Tityus obscurus Novel Putative Na+-Channel Scorpion Toxins

Background: Colombia and Brazil are affected by severe cases of scorpionism. In Colombia the most dangerous accidents are caused by Tityus pachyurus that is widely distributed around this country. In the Brazilian Amazonian region scorpion stings are a common event caused by Tityus obscurus. The main objective of this work was to perform the molecular cloning of the putative Na+-channel scorpion toxins (NaScTxs) from T. pachyurus and T. obscurus venom glands and to analyze their phylogenetic relationship with other known NaScTxs from Tityus species. Methodology/Principal Findings: cDNA libraries from venom glands of these two species were constructed and five nucleotide sequences from T. pachyurus were identified as putative modulators of Na+-channels, and were named Tpa4, Tpa5, Tpa6, Tpa7 and Tpa8; the latter being the first anti-insect excitatory b-class NaScTx in Tityus scorpion venom to be described. Fifteen sequences from T. obscurus were identified as putative NaScTxs, among which three had been previously described, and the others were named To4 to To15. The peptides Tpa4, Tpa5, Tpa6, To6, To7, To9, To10 and To14 are closely related to the a-class NaScTxs, whereas Tpa7, Tpa8, To4, To8, To12 and To15 sequences are more related to the b-class NaScTxs. To5 is possibly an arthropod specific toxin. To11 and To13 share sequence similarities with both a and b NaScTxs. By means of phylogenetic analysis using the Maximum Parsimony method and the known NaScTxs from Tityus species, these toxins were clustered into 14 distinct groups. Conclusions/Significance: This communication describes new putative NaScTxs from T. pachyurus and T. obscurus and their phylogenetic analysis. The results indicate clear geographic separation between scorpions of Tityus genus inhabiting the Amazonian and Mountain Andes regions and those distributed over the Southern of the Amazonian rainforest. Based on the consensus sequences for the different clusters, a new nomenclature for the NaScTxs is proposed

He II λ4686 in η Carinae: Collapse of the wind-wind collision region during periastron passage

The periodic spectroscopic events in η Carinae are now well established and occur near the periastron passage of two massive stars in a very eccentric orbit. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the variations of different spectral features, such as an eclipse by the wind-wind collision (WWC) boundary, a shell ejection from the primary star or accretion of its wind onto the secondary. All of them have problems explaining all the observed phenomena. To better understand the nature of the cyclic events, we performed a dense monitoring of η Carinae with five Southern telescopes during the 2009 low-excitation event, resulting in a set of data of unprecedented quality and sampling. The intrinsic luminosity of the He II λ4686 emission line (L 310 L) just before periastron reveals the presence of a very luminous transient source of extreme UV radiation emitted in the WWC region. Clumps in the primary's wind probably explain the flare-like behavior of both the X-ray and He II λ4686 light curves. After a short-lived minimum, He II λ4686 emission rises again to a new maximum, when X-rays are still absent or very weak. We interpret this as a collapse of the WWC onto the "surface" of the secondary star, switching off the hard X-ray source and diminishing the WWC shock cone. The recovery from this state is controlled by the momentum balance between the secondary's wind and the clumps in the primary's wind.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísica

He II λ4686 in η Carinae: Collapse of the wind-wind collision region during periastron passage

The periodic spectroscopic events in η Carinae are now well established and occur near the periastron passage of two massive stars in a very eccentric orbit. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the variations of different spectral features, such as an eclipse by the wind-wind collision (WWC) boundary, a shell ejection from the primary star or accretion of its wind onto the secondary. All of them have problems explaining all the observed phenomena. To better understand the nature of the cyclic events, we performed a dense monitoring of η Carinae with five Southern telescopes during the 2009 low-excitation event, resulting in a set of data of unprecedented quality and sampling. The intrinsic luminosity of the He II λ4686 emission line (L 310 L) just before periastron reveals the presence of a very luminous transient source of extreme UV radiation emitted in the WWC region. Clumps in the primary's wind probably explain the flare-like behavior of both the X-ray and He II λ4686 light curves. After a short-lived minimum, He II λ4686 emission rises again to a new maximum, when X-rays are still absent or very weak. We interpret this as a collapse of the WWC onto the "surface" of the secondary star, switching off the hard X-ray source and diminishing the WWC shock cone. The recovery from this state is controlled by the momentum balance between the secondary's wind and the clumps in the primary's wind.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísica

Estimating CDKN2A mutation carrier probability among global familial melanoma cases using GenoMELPREDICT

Background: Although rare in the general population, highly penetrant germline mutations in CDKN2A are responsible for 5%-40% of melanoma cases reported in melanoma-prone families. We sought to determine whether MELPREDICT was generalizable to a global series of families with melanoma and whether performance improvements can be achieved. Methods: In total, 2116 familial melanoma cases were ascertained by the international GenoMEL Consortium. We recapitulated the MELPREDICT model within our data (GenoMELPREDICT) to assess performance improvements by adding phenotypic risk factors and history of pancreatic cancer. We report areas under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) along with net reclassification indices (NRIs) as performance metrics. Results: MELPREDICT performed well (AUC 0.752, 95% CI 0.730-0.775), and GenoMELPREDICT performance was similar (AUC 0.748, 95% CI 0.726-0.771). Adding a reported history of pancreatic cancer yielded discriminatory improvement (P < .0001) in GenoMELPREDICT (AUC 0.772, 95% CI 0.750-0.793, NRI 0.40). Including phenotypic risk factors did not improve performance. Conclusion: The MELPREDICT model functioned well in a global data set of familial melanoma cases. Adding pancreatic cancer history improved model prediction. GenoMELPREDICT is a simple tool for predicting CDKN2A mutational status among melanoma patients from melanoma-prone families and can aid in directing these patients to receive genetic testing or cancer risk counseling