Cash Flow Volatility and Firm Investment Behaviour: Evidence from African Listed Firms

This study explored the association between cash flow variability and investment behaviour of African listed firms. The research employed a dynamic panel data model estimated with the difference and system Generalised Method of Moments estimation techniques on a panel of 815 listed African non-financial firms. The estimation techniques control for unobserved heterogeneity, endogeneity, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and dynamic panel bias. Two different measures of volatility were employed; the exponentially weighted moving average, a forward-looking measure that captures innovations in cash flow volatilities and the coefficient of variation that captures the mechanical effect of the possible relation between cash flow levels and volatility. The results obtained suggested that cash-flow volatility is associated with average lower investment in African firms. These findings show that not only cash flows are an important determinant of investment decisions, but the variability of the cash flows also has a significant bearing on the investment levels of African firms. Cash flow volatility has a significant negative impact on investment even for firms with higher cash flows and unconstrained firms. African firms should not only aim at achieving higher cash flows, but the stability of the cash flows is equally important to sustain solid investment levels

Firm investment behavior: the role of leverage, liquidity and cash flow volatility: African evidence.

Doctoral degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.The main corporate financial strategic pillars that drive a firm’s value are mainly financing and investment. Conventional finance theories hold that leverage is power that amplifies investment. Cash flows and liquidity are the lifeblood of any firm which gives life to and fuels higher investments. To this end, there is an indispensable interplay between financing, investment, cash flows and liquidity. Existing studies on investment decisions are largely centered on developed economies but no studies, to the best of my knowledge, have been done in developing economies like those in Africa. However, there is persistent behavioural and structural heterogeneity between firms in developing and developed economies, resulting in diverging economic implications for a firm’s behaviour. This study was motivated by the observation that leverage levels in African firms are generally low but now on the rise as compared to developed economies, investment levels are stagnant, low liquidity of stock markets coupled with cash flows that are too volatile. Given the progressively vital role developing economies have for global growth, this study sought to find how this trend in leverage levels is impacting on investment in Africa, a concern for the global economy. Given the inseparability of investment and leverage from liquidity and cash flow, the study also examines the role of liquidity and cash flows in investment decision making. This study extends the reduced form investment model to a dynamic panel data model estimated with a novel technique; the generalised method of moments (GMM) on the panel data of 815 listed African non-financial firms. The methodology controls for unobservable heterogeneity, endogeneity, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and probable bi-directional relationships. The study found evidence that leverage constrains investment and its impact is more pronounced in firms with low-growth opportunities. These results suggest that investment policy does not solely depend on the neoclassical fundamentals but also on financing strategy and are inclined to the hypothesis that leverage plays a disciplinary role to avoid over-investment. The study also found that stock market liquidity is associated with higher average capital expenditures. The effect of liquidity on investment was found to be heterogeneous with financial constraints and growth opportunities. The study reveals that cash flows are not only an important determinant of investment decisions, but the variability of the cash flows also has a significant bearing on the investment policy. The experimental analysis shows that an increase in debt may reduce the negative effect of leverage on investment. However, the shallow, illiquid debt markets of African firms would mean higher costs and this countermands any benefits from debt. Based on these, findings, the study recommends that African firms should consider relying more on internally generated funds and the stock markets so as not to suppress any available cash flows and improved liquidity. African firms should trade off the effects of managing volatility and the resulting negative impact of cash flow volatility on investment levels

Unraveling the Loan Growth Threshold Effect on Non-Performing Loans During Total Dollarization in Zimbabwe

The availability of bank loans is a vital component in determining the investment and spending patterns that influence economic growth. This article examines the threshold effect of loan growth on non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Zimbabwean banking industry during dollarization. The study employed panel threshold regression models developed by Seo et al. (2019) and Kremer et al. (2013) on a panel of thirteen banks from 2009 to 2017. The study revealed that locally owned banks held a higher percentage of NPLs (12.7%) than foreign-owned banks (6.1%) during the period under study. The study also documents a loan growth threshold level of 38%. On average, the industry lends excessively, as demonstrated by the 48% loan growth rate. Primarily, local banks dominate this rate by lending above the threshold compared to foreign banks. The study observed that, below and above the threshold, loan growth exerts a negative and significant effect on NPLs. Based on the results, it can be recommended that banks should devise strategies to maintain a steady loan growth rate, enhance profitability, and effectively monitor liquidity risk exposure. The findings provide insights into reviewing bank credit policies and prudential guidelines

Financial Literacy Operationalization Model For Agribusiness Entrepreneurs In Zimbabwe

Agribusiness is the cornerstone of the Zimbabwean economy as most people survive on agricultural related activities and it is regarded as the first step to fighting poverty among the rural population. However, the sector has not been performing well in terms of productivity due to various factors, which include poor management of borrowed funds, higher loan defaults and financial exclusion. The study sought to assess the level of financial knowledge, financial behaviours, and financial attitudes of agribusiness entrepreneurs and to develop an operationalisation model for improving financial literacy. Pragmatism research philosophy guided this research to use mixed method approaches and sequential mixed method research design. Quantitative data was first collected using a research questionnaire, followed by interviews that were conducted to build upon quantitative results. Multistage cluster sampling and convenience sampling was used to select research participants. Research findings established that agribusiness entrepreneurs: (1) have low financial knowledge, (2) exhibit poor financial behaviours (3) have good financial attitudes except for diverting a portion of business loans for personal use. The general level of financial literacy was very low among agribusiness entrepreneurs. Hence the study recommended a financial literacy operationalisation model for agribusiness entrepreneurs for consideration by policy makers.         Keywords: Financial Literacy; Financial Knowledge; Financial Behaviour; Financial Attitude

The effects of non-performing loans on bank stability and economic performance in Zimbabwe

This study explores the impact of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the Zimbabwean banking industry’s stability and economic performance during the dollarization era. The panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model was applied using annual data from 2009 to 2017. The findings indicated that short-run NPL shocks negatively impact the risk-adjusted return, while the impact on risk-adjusted capitalization is positive but dies off in the long run. The findings from the paper further show that NPLs have a strong negative and significant effect on loan growth and economic performance in the short run but remain muted in the long run. The study results also show a bi-directional causality between banking industry stability and NPLs. In summary, NPLs affect banking industry stability, loan growth and economic performance in Zimbabwe. A possible implication is the formulation of a sound regulatory framework that curbs the increase in NPLs, promotes stability within the banking industry, and improves economic performance. The practical implication is that banks must get it right the first time regarding bank lending policies. Thus, the study recommends that Zimbabwean banks proactively manage their exposure to non-performing loans by implementing rigorous credit risk assessment processes

Unveiling the Role of Investment Tangibility on Financial Leverage: Insights from African-Listed Firms

The asset structure of a firm plays a pivotal role in determining its leverage. A higher proportion of physical assets is often associated with high debt ratios. This study explores the impact of investment tangibility on financial leverage, examining both tangible and intangible investments. Using a dynamic panel data model estimated through the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM), we analyse a dataset encompassing 815 non-financial listed firms from 22 African stock markets. The results show that African firms have higher inclinations to invest in physical assets. We found a statistically significant negative relationship between leverage and tangible and intangible investments. The findings indicate that African firms tend to maintain lower leverages regardless of whether they invest in tangible or intangible assets. The observed relationship aligns with the hypothesis that high-growth firms, in their expansion efforts, strategically tend to opt for low debt to mitigate the agency costs associated with debt and to help prevent underinvestment. This outcome underscores the interconnected nature of financing and investment decisions. This research contributes to the literature on financial leverage and investment by dissecting investments into tangible and non-tangible components and highlighting their distinct impacts on leverage. Moreover, it provides empirical evidence for previously unexplored African firms, shedding light on the reasons behind the relatively low leverage levels observed in African firms

Unearthing Financial Wisdom Exploring the Factors Shaping Financial Literacy among Agribusiness Entrepreneurs in Zimbabwe

Agribusiness serves as the cornerstone of the Zimbabwean economy, with a significant portion of the population relying on agricultural-related pursuits for sustenance. However, the concerning financial practices exhibited by agribusiness entrepreneurs, coupled with lackluster sectoral performance, present pressing issues. These issues manifest as pronounced instances of financial exclusion, loan defaults, and diminished productivity within the sector. The primary focus of this study was to assess the financial literacy of agribusiness entrepreneurs and elucidate the principal determinants of this literacy, employing the theoretical framework of the lifecycle hypothesis. The research design employed was explanatory in nature, involving the collection and subsequent quantitative analysis of data via questionnaires. The study encompassed a population of 172,221 agribusiness farmers hailing from five distinct districts in Zimbabwe, namely Mutare, Mt Darwin, Mutoko, Gweru, and Masvingo. To ensure a representative sample, a sample size of 623 was calculated utilizing the Slovin formula. The research outcomes unveiled an overall deficiency in financial literacy within the agribusiness sector, particularly pronounced among women, individuals with low incomes, those possessing limited educational attainment, and those supporting multiple dependents below the age of 18. As a crucial recommendation, the study advocates for the implementation of mandatory financial literacy courses at both the primary and secondary education levels. Such an intervention could contribute significantly to addressing the identified shortcomings in financial literacy among agribusiness entrepreneurs and subsequently foster more prudent financial behaviors within the sector

The Impact of microfinance institutions on poverty alleviation

Microfinancing has been targeted as a tool to address Poverty through the provision of credit to the poor and marginalised economic functions. However, the main objective upon which these institutions are founded is yet to manifest primarily in developing economies. This study examined the role of microfinancing in poverty alleviation by employing a Vector Error Correction Model on quarterly time-series data. The results reveal a significant long-run relationship among the variables poverty, microfinancing, SMEs, and agricultural growth. Contrary to expectations, Microfinancing was found to increase poverty in the long run. SMEs and agricultural development were found to reduce the level of poverty in the long run. In the short run, regression results reveal that SMEs' growth alleviates poverty, and poverty increases the growth of microfinance loans in the country. The increase in SMEs is a tool for alleviating poverty, and the growth in microfinance institutions is also being driven by poverty. This suggests that continued improper microfinancing can escalate the poverty levels to undesired heights. The findings imply that the growth of microfinance loans is not being put to its intended and efficient use. These findings bring to the fore that it is not only the provision of funds that matters.Microfinancing has been targeted as a tool to address Poverty through the provision of credit to the poor and marginalised economic functions. However, the main objective upon which these institutions are founded is yet to manifest primarily in developing economies. This study examined the role of microfinancing in poverty alleviation by employing a Vector Error Correction Model on quarterly time-series data. The results reveal a significant long-run relationship among the variables poverty, microfinancing, SMEs, and agricultural growth. Contrary to expectations, Microfinancing was found to increase poverty in the long run. SMEs and agricultural development were found to reduce the level of poverty in the long run. In the short run, regression results reveal that SMEs' growth alleviates poverty, and poverty increases the growth of microfinance loans in the country. The increase in SMEs is a tool for alleviating poverty, and the growth in microfinance institutions is also being driven by poverty. This suggests that continued improper microfinancing can escalate the poverty levels to undesired heights. The findings imply that the growth of microfinance loans is not being put to its intended and efficient use. These findings bring to the fore that it is not only the provision of funds that matters.Microfinancing has been targeted as a tool to address Poverty through the provision of credit to the poor and marginalised economic functions. However, the main objective upon which these institutions are founded is yet to manifest primarily in developing economies. This study examined the role of microfinancing in poverty alleviation by employing a Vector Error Correction Model on quarterly time-series data. The results reveal a significant long-run relationship among the variables poverty, microfinancing, SMEs, and agricultural growth. Contrary to expectations, Microfinancing was found to increase poverty in the long run. SMEs and agricultural development were found to reduce the level of poverty in the long run. In the short run, regression results reveal that SMEs' growth alleviates poverty, and poverty increases the growth of microfinance loans in the country. The increase in SMEs is a tool for alleviating poverty, and the growth in microfinance institutions is also being driven by poverty. This suggests that continued improper microfinancing can escalate the poverty levels to undesired heights. The findings imply that the growth of microfinance loans is not being put to its intended and efficient use. These findings bring to the fore that it is not only the provision of funds that matters

Country Risk Dynamics and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from the JSE Cross-Sector Analysis

The rapid integration of the global markets and financial system has increased stock market volatility due to the increased exposure to various risks. Using different GARCH family models, this study investigates the impact of country risk components shocks on stock market return volatility of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and its sectors for the 1996-2018 period. High positive correlations were found among the sectors, which potentially erodes diversification benefits. The research found that the South African stock market volatility is mainly driven by own/internal shocks, while the effect of county risk shocks on stock return volatility differs across the JSE sectors. We found that financial risk shocks negatively transmit to the volatility of oil and gas sector returns, leading to an increase in conditional volatility. Regarding economic risk, we found a statistically significant relationship between economic risk shocks and the entire JSE and financial and oil and gas sectors. The results show that political risk shocks negatively transmit to stock return volatility in the industrial sector, basic materials, consumer goods, financial, and the oil and gas sectors, leading to higher conditional volatility. Thus, the return volatility of most of the JSE sectors is primarily affected by political dynamics, emphasising the role of political instability in destabilising stock market volatility