The Forecasting Capacity of Housing Price Expectations

This study captures the essential elements of the price expectations of market participants in a rising market. Adopting a forward-looking approach, this paper explores the effectiveness of expectations as an indicator of forthcoming housing price changes in Hong Kong. Examination of the quarterly survey data from December 2003 to September 2007 indicates that both homeowners and non-homeowners tend to overestimate the probability of future housing price increases yet underestimate its volatility. This adds weight to the argument that market participants are generally not rational in the prediction of price movement. Homeowners, investors and potential home buyers have more or less the same level of confidence about the future market outlook. Like non-owners, they expect higher prices. The number of correct forecasts exceeds incorrect forecasts, suggesting that overall price expectations are fairly close to realization. It can be broadly concluded that the aggregate price expectations in the long run can be an appropriate forecasting tool for future market performance.Price expectations; Forecastability; Housing market; Hong Kong

Real option and vertical mixed-use development

Vertical mixed-use development is a favourite choice in urban development in high-density Asian cities to increase the land use efficiency. The flexibility of construction timing and the restrictions by lease contracts in vertical mixeduse projects are usually different from horizontal ones and single-use properties. To improve the valuation for vertical mixed-use projects, this study re-examines the real option pricing model. Simultaneous development for different uses and a finite maximum waiting period are the major characteristics of these projects. An approach is introduced to determine whether to develop a mixed-use project vertically or horizontally on the basis of a statistics called the critical height premium. The vertical mixed-use project pricing model can be further verified by containing a height premium if market price information is derived from non-vertical mixed-use properties. This study suggests a more comprehensive real option approach to quantify the advantages and disadvantages of operating vertical mixed-use developments

Optimal trading strategy during bull and bear markets for Hong Kong-listed stocks

The “buy-and-hold” strategy based on the EMH was believed by many people to be optimal for a long time. However, there has been more criticism on the EMH since the global financial crisis in 2008. Hence many people attempt to find a trading strategy to beat “buy-and-hold”. Moreover, the financial market fluctuates a lot. Sometimes it is in a bull market, but it may be in a bear market during other periods of time, so the optimal strategy during different periods of time may vary and hence switching of strategies may be necessary. In this study, we apply Hui and Chan (2018)’s generalized time-dependent strategy on 12 Hong Kong listed stocks during the whole period of observation and two sub-periods. The results show that when the sub-period December 31, 2004–December 31, 2008 is chosen, the strategy outperforms “buy-and-hold” by the largest extent. This reflects that the strategy is most effective during adverse market conditions. This study can help investors to apply appropriate trading strategies to earn more profits, and help property practitioners to improve their strategic property management to increase the value of their portfolio

A fuzzy decision‐making approach for portfolio management with direct real estate investment

This study incorporated expert knowledge into the classical quadratic programming approach, i.e., Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), through fuzzy set theory; in obtaining portfolio return optimization involving direct real estate investment. Two fuzzy mathematical programming models were uniquely specified and estimated in this study, namely, Zimmer‐mann's (2001) fuzzy tactical asset allocation (FTAA) flexible programming model and Ramik and Rimanek's (1985) FTAA robust programming model. These approaches try to overcome the drawbacks of traditional asset allocation models by including expert adjustment in the presence of imprecise information. The findings suggest that the fuzzy tactical asset allocation (FTAA Flexible Model), with the inclusion of expert judgments which contain information usually not found in historical data, is able to produce a portfolio just as efficient as traditional asset allocation models while minimizing the potential issues due to imprecision and vagueness of information. Meanwhile, the FTAA Robust Model proffers a more evenly‐distributed, yet with higher risks and lower returns, portfolio. Aside from the lack of emphasis on portfolio risks minimization, one reason attributed to such anomaly is the low level of returns of high‐risk stocks that are not selected by MPT and FTAA Flexible Models. It results in a unique situation where portfolio diversification does not necessarily guarantee an efficient investment decision. Santruka Šis tyrimas itraukia ekspertines žinias i klasikine kvadratinio programavimo metodika, pavyzdžiui, moderniaja portfelio valdymo teorija, per neapibrežtuju aibiu teorija, siekiant optimizuoti portfelio graža, apimant tiesiogines nekilnojamojo turto investicijas. Šiame tyrime išsamiai aprašomi ir ivertinami du neapibrežtojo matematinio programavimo modeliai. Tai Zimmermann (2001) neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo lankstusis programavimo modelis ir Ramik bei Rimanek (1985) neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo robustinis programavimo modelis. Juos taikant bandoma pašalinti tradiciniu aktyvu paskirstymo metodu trūkumus itraukiant ekspertu siūlomus pakeitimus nesant tikslios informacijos. Nustatyta, kad neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymas (neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo lankstusis programavimo modelis) kartu su ekspertu vertinimais, paprastai apimančiais informacija, kurios negalima rasti tarp istoriniu duomenu, leidžia sudaryti toki pati efektyvu portfeli, kaip ir tradiciniai aktyvu paskirstymo modeliai, tačiau minimizuojant potencialius nesutarimus, kuriu atsiranda del netikslios ir neapibrežtos informacijos. Neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo robustinis programavimo modelis siūlo tolygiau paskirstyta, tačiau rizikingesni ir ne toki pelninga portfeli. Be portfelio rizikos minimizavimo trūkumo, dar viena priežastis, priskiriama prie šios anomalijos, yra maža dideles rizikos akciju graža, kuri nera pasirenkama moderniojoje portfelio valdymo teorijoje ir neapibrežtuju aktyvu paskirstymo lanksčiuosiuose programavimo modeliuose. Kaip rezultatas gaunama unikali situacija, kai portfelio diversifikavimas nebūtinai garantuoja efektyvu investavimo sprendima. First Publish Online: 18 Oct 201

Forecasting property price indices in Hong Kong based on grey models

The real estate market in Hong Kong plays an important role in its economy. The property prices have been increasing a lot since 2009, which have become a major concern. However, few studies have been done to forecast the property price indices in Hong Kong. In this paper, two grey models, GM(1,1) and GM(0,N), are introduced for the forecasting. The results show that GM(1,1) has a better performance when forecasting with stable trend data, while GM(0,N) is more suitable for forecasting data in fluctuating trend. The sensitivity analysis for GM(0,N) shows that Population(POP) and Best Lending Rate(BLR) are significantly sensitive factors for data in stable trend. While for the fluctuating data, sensitivity of each factor presents uncertainties. This study also compares the forecasting performance of grey models with the ANN model and ARIMA model. The study demonstrates that grey models are more suitable for forecasting the Hong Kong property price indices than others

Study of guangzhou house price bubble based on state‐space model

Previous literature has explored Guangzhou's real estate market bubble problem, by using the perspective of rent receipts to measure the fundamental housing value. Since there is high proportion of owner‐occupied property in Guangzhou; and that the household income is considered a key factor affecting housing price level, this article is from the perspective of household income, by the present asset market model, it sets up housing price model that analysis of the bubble phenomenon, and uses the state‐space model that can be estimated characteristics by unobservable variables. The article estimates the price bubble and analyzes the size of the bubble at different times. The housing price in Guangzhou from January 2004 to December 2008 is studied. The results concluded that the housing market bubble peaked in October 2007 at around 43% of the market housing price. Santruka Jau skelbtuose darbuose Guangžu nekilnojamojo turto rinkos burbulo problema nagrineta pasitelkus gaunamos nuomos perspektyva, siekiant nustatyti fundamentaliaja būsto verte. Kadangi nemaža dalis nuosavybes Guangžu mieste užimta savininku, o namu ūkiu pajamos laikomos esminiu būsto kainu lygi lemiančiu veiksniu, šiame straipsnyje pasirinkta namu ūkio pajamu perspektyva pagal esama turto rinkos modeli; sudarytas būsto kainu modelis, kuriuo remiantis nagrinejamas burbulo reiškinys, ir pasitelktas būsenu ir erdves modelis, kuris charakteristikas leidžia ivertinti pagal netiesioginius kintamuosius veiksnius. Straipsnyje vertinamas kainu burbulas ir analizuojamas burbulo dydis ivairiu metu. Nagrinejamos Guangžu būsto kainos nuo 2004 m. sausio iki 2008 m. gruodžio. Rezultatai rodo, kad būsto rinkos burbulas pika pasieke 2007 m. spali, apytikriai prie 43 % būstu rinkos kainos. First Publish Online: 18 Oct 201

Idiosyncratic risk and spillover effect in REIT returns

Nowadays, idiosyncratic risk has substantial impacts on the risk control of portfolio construction. However, little research has been done on the spillover effect of idiosyncratic risk from global markets in REIT returns. A risk-return model is developed to examine the effects of idiosyncratic risk and its spillover on the short-run dynamics of REIT returns in 10 major REIT markets between 2001 and 2014. Variance decomposition provides evidence that idiosyncratic risk exceeds market risk most of the time. The risk-return models demonstrate that the spillover effect of idiosyncratic risk globally played a more significant role than idiosyncratic risk in the return dynamics during the subprime mortgage crisis. Furthermore, we analyse the asymmetric responses of volatility in REIT returns. The results show that the Netherlands is the most strongly preferred market in terms of earning excess returns, while the US market is unique in that the idiosyncratic risk and spillover effect tend to enlarge the fluctuations in REIT returns

Model peptides to study the effects of P2 and P3 substitutions in statine-containing HIV proteinase inhibitors

AbstractThrough a series of synthetic model peptides, we have examined the structural requirements of the P2 and P3 residues in statine-based HIV protease (PR) inhibitors. Results agree with the general observations that, the more bulky the P3 aromatic hydrophobic side chain, the more potent is the inhibitor. At P2, an isopropyl side chain is critical in maintaining potency. Three-dimensional modeling demonstrates that the steric bulk of a leucyl residue or the unfavorable energy transfer, from water to enzyme, for a basic amino acid residue at P2 markedly compromises activity. A naphthylalaninyl-valyl P3-P2 substituted analogue inhibits PR with an IC50 value of 6 nM, and was also effective as an antiviral agent

New tests of calendar effects on equity and securitized real estate markets

We construct two new tests of calendar effects, apply them on 12 stock indices during 1996–2016, and compare the results with that using Hui and Chan (2016)’s method. The results show that the January and Halloween effects are significant for the four western generalized equity indices for small moving-window sizes. Furthermore, the securitized real estate indices show a greater difference in the overall calendar effect between the three methods than the general equity indices do. This study has an implication that a certain sector of the market is riskier than the whole market

Contagion across real estate and equity markets during European sovereign debt crisis

Standard methods of testing contagion may not work well if the data set is not normally distributed. To cope with this problem, Hatemi-J and Hacker (2005) proposed a new case-resampling bootstrap method to test contagion. In this paper, we extend this method to test the parameters in the Forbes-Rigobon multivariate (FRM) test. The new method has the advantage that the bivariate model is extended to a multivariate framework which jointly models and tests all combinations of contagious linkages. We apply our method to investigate contagion across equity and real estate markets of four countries: Greece, U.K., U.S. and Hong Kong, during the European sovereign debt crisis, and compare the result with that by performing the FRM test directly. Two important results are found. Firstly, both tests we use give similar p-values of the coefficients which indicate the significance of contagion. Secondly, for both tests, the contagion pattern in the equity and real estate markets are different. Our study has an implication to investors that they should regularly review their portfolio and be aware of contagion triggered by a crisis. This would help them reduce their loss and is useful in strategic property management