Intergenerational Risk Sharing in Time-Consistent Funded Pension Schemes

Intergenerational risk sharing by funded pension schemes may increase welfare in an ex ante sense. However, it also suffers from a time inconsistency problem. In particular, young generations may be unwilling to start participating in a pension scheme if this requires them to make huge transfers to older generations. This paper explores if limiting the transfers between generations can make a funded pension scheme time-consistent. The paper finds that this is possible indeed in a more or less realistic economic environment; it is not the case in general however. The form of the time-consistent scheme (how strong are the limits to transfers) is found to be very responsive to the economic environment. The time-consistent scheme offers lower welfare than the original time-inconsistent scheme, but higher welfare than a defined-contribution scheme without any intergenerational risk sharing.

Can we afford to live longer in better health?

This document analyses the effects of ageing populations upon public finances. More specifically, it focuses on the implications of ageing for acute health care, long-term care, and public pension expenditure. It does so for 15 EU countries. �It pays particular attention to three novel insights: (i) a large part of health care spending relates to time to death rather than to age: (ii) life expectancy may increase much faster than current demographic projections suggest, and (iii) the average health status may continue to improve in the future. It adopts a generational accounting model that incorporates health care costs during the last years of life, decomposed into an acute health care component and a long-term care component. The projections show that gains in life expectancy increase age-related expenditure; better health has the opposite effect. Combined, these trends reduce health care expenditure and increase pension expenditure. Their joint effect upon public finance is rather modest, however. Hence, the assessment of public finances in most EU15 countries does not change: even if a faster increase in life expectancy should combine with an improvement in health, current fiscal and social security institutions are unsustainable.

Intergenerational risk sharing and labour supply in collective funded pension schemes with defined benefits

Collective funded pension schemes with defined benefits (DB) raise welfare through intergenerational risk sharing, but may lower welfare through distortion of the labour-leisure decision. This paper compares the welfare gains with the welfare losses. In many countries, collective funded pension schemes with defined benefits (DB) are being replaced by individual schemes with defined contributions. Collective funded DB pensions may indeed reduce social welfare when the schemes feature income-related contributions that distort the labour-leisure decision. However, these schemes also share risks between generations and�add to welfare if these risks cannot be traded on capital markets. Do�the�gains outweigh the losses? For answering this question, we adopt a two-period overlapping-generations model for a small open economy with risky returns to equity holdings. We derive analytically that the gains dominate the losses for the case of Cobb-Douglas preferences between labour and leisure. Numerical simulations for the more general CES case confirm these findings, which also withstand a number of other model modifications (like the introduction of a short-sale constraint for households and the inclusion of a labour income tax). These results suggest that collective funded schemes with well-organized risk sharing are preferable over individual schemes, even if labour market distortions are taken into account.

Financing medical specialist services in the Netherlands; welfare implications of imperfect agency

From 1995 onward the financing scheme for specialist care in the Netherlands has moved from a fee-for-service scheme to a lump-sum budget scheme. This paper analyses the economic and welfare effects of this policy change. The paper adopts a model that integrates demand and supply considerations and recognizes the potential roles of moral hazard and supplier-induced demand. The model is fully numerical, being estimated and calibrated upon data for the Dutch health care sector. The paper finds that the shift in financing regime has been welfare-reducing. The policy change induced medical specialists to lower the supply of health services which was already too low from a welfare point of view. This conclusion is robust to significant changes in major parameter values.

Pension Reform in the Netherlands

During the last decade, the Dutch have debated intensively reforming their second-pillar pension scheme. Meanwhile, ten years turned out to be a too short period for pension funds to bring their funding ratios to sound levels, due to among others the worldwide decline of interest rates. Currently, the Dutch government and the social partners have come up with a quite concrete reform plan. The plan includes three main points: i) make the move towards actuarially fair pension accruals, ii) strengthen the link between benefit levels and capital market rates of return and iii) introduce the option to take up part of accrued pension wealth at retirement. This paper reviews and interprets the plan for pension reform

Inflation-Linked Bonds, Nominal Bonds, and Countercyclical Monetary Policies

Although inflation-linked bonds have many advantages, nominal bonds are the most important instrument to finance public debts throughout the world. One explanation that the literature has offered is that nominal bonds make countercyclical monetary policies more effective. This paper reconsiders this argument with a model that features an inflation risk premium in the nominal bonds interest rate. In this model, nominal bonds help to stabilize the economy, but also add to debt service costs. The paper finds that the debt service costs channel is very powerful: in the case of discretionary policymaking, inflation-linked bonds always outperform nominal bonds. The case of commitment qualifies this result. Still, also commitment cannot explain the occurrence of large stocks of nominal bonds alongside small stocks of inflation-linked bonds

30 Years of Generational Accounting: A Critical Review

The question whether fiscal policies can be considered sustainable in the light of population ageing is old, but still relevant. Even more so, its relevance has increased recently as public debt levels have gone up dramatically as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. The follow-up question if public finances are deemed unsustainable is also still relevant: to what level should the public debt ratio be reduced in order to restore fiscal sustainability? The standard approach to assess fiscal sustainability is that of generational accounting (GA). This paper reviews GA. It argues that GA is a powerful instrument that puts the finger on the balance between generations. At the same time, GA suffers from some weaknesses that have become more significant over time. We conclude that it is time to update GA

The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands

This paper presents stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the CGE model of the Dutch economy GAMMA with stochastic population projections, to quantify uncertainties surrounding the consequences of population ageing for Dutch public finances. The expected increase in the ratio of retirees to workers that is due to population ageing is sure to increase pressure on public finances and the Dutch economy in the coming decades. However, because of the uncertainty regarding future demographic developments, the exact extent of the problem is unknown. This paper quantifies the�uncertainties by stochastic simulation.