Multiple sclerosis, the measurement of disability and access to clinical trial data

Background: Inferences about long-term effects of therapies in multiple sclerosis (MS) have been based on surrogate markers studied in short-term trials. Nevertheless, MS trials have been getting steadily shorter despite the lack of a consensus definition for the most important clinical outcome - unremitting progression of disability. Methods: We have examined widely used surrogate markers of disability progression in MS within a unique database of individual patient data from the placebo arms of 31 randomised clinical trials. Findings: Definitions of treatment failure used in secondary progressive MS trials include much change unrelated to the target of unremitting disability. In relapsing-remitting MS, disability progression by treatment failure definitions was no more likely than similarly defined improvement for these disability surrogates. Existing definitions of disease progression in relapsing-remitting trials encompass random variation, measurement error and remitting relapses and appear not to measure unremitting disability. Interpretation: Clinical surrogates of unremitting disability used in relapsing -remitting trials cannot be validated. Trials have been too short and/or degrees of disability change too small to evaluate unremitting disability outcomes. Important implications for trial design and reinterpretation of existing trial results have emerged long after regulatory approval and widespread use of therapies in MS, highlighting the necessity of having primary trial data in the public domain

Treating Systematic Errors in Multiple Sclerosis Data

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is characterized by high variability between patients and, more importantly here, within an individual over time. This makes categorization and prognosis difficult. Moreover, it is unclear to what degree this intra-individual variation reflects the long-term course of irreversible disability and what is attributable to short-term processes such as relapses, to interrater variability and to measurement error. Any investigation and prediction of the medium or long term evolution of irreversible disability in individual patients is therefore confronted with the problem of systematic error in addition to random fluctuations. The approach described in this article aims to assist in detecting relapses in disease curves and in identifying the underlying disease course. To this end neurological knowledge was transformed into simple rules which were then implemented into computer algorithms for pre-editing disease curves. Based on simulations it is shown that pre-editing time series of disability measured with the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) can lead to more robust and less biased estimates for important disease characteristics, such as baseline EDSS and time to reach certain EDSS levels or sustained progression

Inactive or moderately active human promoters are enriched for inter-individual epialleles

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Analysis of clinical outcomes according to original treatment groups 16 years after the pivotal IFNB-1b trial

BACKGROUND: Evidence for efficacy of disease-modifying drugs in multiple sclerosis (MS) comes from trials of short duration. We report results from a 16 y, retrospective follow-up of the pivotal interferon beta-1b (IFNB-1b) study. METHODS: The 372 trial patients were randomly assigned to placebo (n=123), IFNB-1b 50 microg (n=125) or IFNB-1b 250 microg (n=124) subcutaneously every other day for at least 2 y. Some remained randomised for up to 5 y but, subsequently, patients received treatment according to physicians' discretion. Patients were re-contacted and asked to participate. Efficacy related measures included MRI parameters, relapse rate, the Expanded Disability Status Scale, the Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite Measure and conversion to secondary progressive MS. RESULTS: Of the 88.2% (328/372) of patients who were identified, 69.9% (260/372) had available case report forms. No differences in outcome between original randomisation groups could be discerned using standard disability and MRI measures. However, mortality rates among patients originally treated with IFNB-1b were lower than in the original placebo group (18.3% (20/109) for placebo versus 8.3% (9/108) for IFNB-1b 50 microg and 5.4% (6/111) for IFNB-1b 250 microg). CONCLUSIONS: The original treatment assignment could not be shown to influence standard assessments of long-term efficacy. On-study behaviour of patients was influenced by factors that could not be controlled with the sacrifice of randomisation and blinding. Mortality was higher in patients originally assigned to placebo than those who had received IFNB-1b 50 microg or 250 microg. The dataset provides important resources to explore early predictors of long-term outcome

Prognosis of the individual course of disease - steps in developing a decision support tool for Multiple Sclerosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Multiple sclerosis is a chronic disease of uncertain aetiology. Variations in its disease course make it difficult to impossible to accurately determine the prognosis of individual patients. The Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research (SLCMSR) developed an "online analytical processing (OLAP)" tool that takes advantage of extant clinical trials data and allows one to model the near term future course of this chronic disease for an individual patient.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For a given patient the most similar patients of the SLCMSR database are intelligently selected by a model-based matching algorithm integrated into an OLAP-tool to enable real time, web-based statistical analyses. The underlying database (last update April 2005) contains 1,059 patients derived from 30 placebo arms of controlled clinical trials. Demographic information on the entire database and the portion selected for comparison are displayed. The result of the statistical comparison is provided as a display of the course of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) for individuals in the database with regions of probable progression over time, along with their mean relapse rate. Kaplan-Meier curves for time to sustained progression in the EDSS and time to requirement of constant assistance to walk (EDSS 6) are also displayed. The software-application OLAP anticipates the input MS patient's course on the basis of baseline values and the known course of disease for similar patients who have been followed in clinical trials.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This simulation could be useful for physicians, researchers and other professionals who counsel patients on therapeutic options. The application can be modified for studying the natural history of other chronic diseases, if and when similar datasets on which the OLAP operates exist.</p

Expression of the Multiple Sclerosis-Associated MHC Class II Allele HLA-DRB1*1501 Is Regulated by Vitamin D

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex trait in which allelic variation in the MHC class II region exerts the single strongest effect on genetic risk. Epidemiological data in MS provide strong evidence that environmental factors act at a population level to influence the unusual geographical distribution of this disease. Growing evidence implicates sunlight or vitamin D as a key environmental factor in aetiology. We hypothesised that this environmental candidate might interact with inherited factors and sought responsive regulatory elements in the MHC class II region. Sequence analysis localised a single MHC vitamin D response element (VDRE) to the promoter region of HLA-DRB1. Sequencing of this promoter in greater than 1,000 chromosomes from HLA-DRB1 homozygotes showed absolute conservation of this putative VDRE on HLA-DRB1*15 haplotypes. In contrast, there was striking variation among non–MS-associated haplotypes. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays showed specific recruitment of vitamin D receptor to the VDRE in the HLA-DRB1*15 promoter, confirmed by chromatin immunoprecipitation experiments using lymphoblastoid cells homozygous for HLA-DRB1*15. Transient transfection using a luciferase reporter assay showed a functional role for this VDRE. B cells transiently transfected with the HLA-DRB1*15 gene promoter showed increased expression on stimulation with 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (P = 0.002) that was lost both on deletion of the VDRE or with the homologous “VDRE” sequence found in non–MS-associated HLA-DRB1 haplotypes. Flow cytometric analysis showed a specific increase in the cell surface expression of HLA-DRB1 upon addition of vitamin D only in HLA-DRB1*15 bearing lymphoblastoid cells. This study further implicates vitamin D as a strong environmental candidate in MS by demonstrating direct functional interaction with the major locus determining genetic susceptibility. These findings support a connection between the main epidemiological and genetic features of this disease with major practical implications for studies of disease mechanism and prevention

Vitamin D receptor ChIP-seq in primary CD4+ cells: relationship to serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and autoimmune disease

PMCID: PMC3710212This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Survival in MS: a randomized cohort study 21 years after the start of the pivotal IFNB-1b trial

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of interferon beta (IFNβ)-1b on all-cause mortality over 21 years in the cohort of 372 patients who participated in the pivotal randomized clinical trial (RCT), retaining (in the analysis) the original randomized treatment-assignments. METHODS: For this randomized long-term cohort study, the primary outcome, defined before data collection, was the comparison of all-cause mortality between the IFNβ-1b 250 μg and placebo groups from the time of randomization through the entire 21-year follow-up interval (intention-to-treat, log-rank test for Kaplan-Meier survival curves). All other survival outcomes were secondary. RESULTS: After a median of 21.1 years from RCT enrollment, 98.4%(366 of 372) of patients were identified, and, of these, 81 deaths were recorded (22.1% [81 of 366]). Patients originally randomly assigned to IFNβ-1b 250 μg showed a significant reduction in all-cause mortality over the 21-year period compared with placebo (p = 0.0173), with a hazard ratio of 0.532 (95% confidence interval 0.314-0.902). The hazard rate of death at long-term follow-up by Kaplan-Meier estimates was reduced by 46.8% among IFNβ-1b 250 μg-treated patients (46.0% among IFNβ-1b 50 μg-treated patients) compared with placebo. Baseline variables did not influence the observed treatment effect. CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant survival advantage in this cohort of patients receiving early IFNβ-1b treatment at either dose compared with placebo. Near-complete ascertainment, together with confirmatory findings from both active treatment groups, strengthens the evidence for an IFNβ-1b benefit on all-cause mortality. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that early treatment with IFNβ-1b is associated with prolonged survival in initially treatment-naive patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

Genetic, environmental and stochastic factors in monozygotic twin discordance with a focus on epigenetic differences

PMCID: PMC3566971This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Variants of ST8SIA1 Are Associated with Risk of Developing Multiple Sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory demyelinating disease of the central nervous system of unknown etiology with both genetic and environmental factors playing a role in susceptibility. To date, the HLA DR15/DQ6 haplotype within the major histocompatibility complex on chromosome 6p, is the strongest genetic risk factor associated with MS susceptibility. Additional alleles of IL7 and IL2 have been identified as risk factors for MS with small effect. Here we present two independent studies supporting an allelic association of MS with polymorphisms in the ST8SIA1 gene, located on chromosome 12p12 and encoding ST8 alpha-N-acetyl-neuraminide alpha-2,8-sialyltransferase 1. The initial association was made in a single three-generation family where a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs4762896, was segregating together with HLA DR15/DQ6 in MS patients. A study of 274 family trios ( affected child and both unaffected parents) from Australia validated the association of ST8SIA1 in individuals with MS, showing transmission disequilibrium of the paternal alleles for three additional SNPs, namely rs704219, rs2041906, and rs1558793, with p = 0.001, p = 0.01 and p = 0.01 respectively. These findings implicate ST8SIA1 as a possible novel susceptibility gene for MS