1,312 research outputs found
Bayesian Analysis for Food-Safety Risk Assessment: Evaluation of Dose-Response Functions within WinBUGS
Temperature Fluctuations driven by Magnetorotational Instability in Protoplanetary Disks
The magnetorotational instability (MRI) drives magnetized turbulence in
sufficiently ionized regions of protoplanetary disks, leading to mass
accretion. The dissipation of the potential energy associated with this
accretion determines the thermal structure of accreting regions. Until
recently, the heating from the turbulence has only been treated in an
azimuthally averaged sense, neglecting local fluctuations. However, magnetized
turbulence dissipates its energy intermittently in current sheet structures. We
study this intermittent energy dissipation using high resolution numerical
models including a treatment of radiative thermal diffusion in an optically
thick regime. Our models predict that these turbulent current sheets drive
order unity temperature variations even where the MRI is damped strongly by
Ohmic resistivity. This implies that the current sheet structures where energy
dissipation occurs must be well resolved to correctly capture the flow
structure in numerical models. Higher resolutions are required to resolve
energy dissipation than to resolve the magnetic field strength or accretion
stresses. The temperature variations are large enough to have major
consequences for mineral formation in disks, including melting chondrules,
remelting calcium-aluminum rich inclusions, and annealing silicates; and may
drive hysteresis: current sheets in MRI active regions could be significantly
more conductive than the remainder of the disk.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures, ApJ In Press, updated to match proof
Soil-water dynamics and unsaturated storage during snowmelt following wildfire
Many forested watersheds with a substantial fraction of precipitation delivered as snow have the potential for landscape disturbance by wildfire. Little is known about the immediate effects of wildfire on snowmelt and near-surface hydrologic responses, including soil-water storage. Montane systems at the rain-snow transition have soil-water dynamics that are further complicated during the snowmelt period by strong aspect controls on snowmelt and soil thawing. Here we present data from field measurements of snow hydrology and subsurface hydrologic and temperature responses during the first winter and spring after the September 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire in Colorado, USA. Our observations of soil-water content and soil temperature show sharp contrasts in hydrologic and thermal conditions between north- and south-facing slopes. South-facing burned soils were ∼1–2 °C warmer on average than north-facing burned soils and ∼1.5 °C warmer than south-facing unburned soils, which affected soil thawing during the snowmelt period. Soil-water dynamics also differed by aspect: in response to soil thawing, soil-water content increased approximately one month earlier on south-facing burned slopes than on north-facing burned slopes. While aspect and wildfire affect soil-water dynamics during snowmelt, soil-water storage at the end of the snowmelt period reached the value at field capacity for each plot, suggesting that post-snowmelt unsaturated storage was not substantially influenced by aspect in wildfire-affected areas. Our data and analysis indicate that the amount of snowmelt-driven groundwater recharge may be larger in wildfire-impacted areas, especially on south-facing slopes, because of earlier soil thaw and longer durations of soil-water contents above field capacity in those areas
Bayesian Analysis for Food-Safety Risk Assessment: Evaluation of Dose-Response Functions within WinBUGS
Bayesian methods are becoming increasingly popular in the field of food-safety risk assessment. Risk assessment models often require the integration of a dose-response function over the distribution of all possible doses of a pathogen ingested with a specific food. This requires the evaluation of an integral for every sample for a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of a model. While many statistical software packages have functions that allow for the evaluation of the integral, this functionality is lacking in WinBUGS. A probabilistic model, that incorporates a novel numerical integration technique, is presented to facilitate the use of WinBUGS for food-safety risk assessments. The numerical integration technique is described in the context of a typical food-saftey risk assesment, some theoretical results are given, and a snippet of WinBUGS code is provided
Small mirrors do the trick: A simple, but effective method to study mirror self-recognition in chimpanzees
Mirror self-recognition (MSR) is considered an indicator of self-awareness. Standardized mirror tests reveal compelling evidence for MSR in a few non-human species, including all great apes. However, substantial inter-individual variation of MSR within species resulted in an ongoing methodological controversy, questioning the appropriateness of standard MSR tests for cross-species comparisons. Lack of motivation, in particular, is discussed as one possible cause for false negative results. Here, we compare the spontaneous behavioral response of 47 zoo-housed chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) to (i) standard body-sized, stationary mirrors and (ii) small, portable hand mirrors. We predicted that the monopolizability and maneuverability of small mirrors increase the chances of identifying MSR across a larger proportion of individuals. Chimpanzees both revealed a substantially higher frequency of general mirror-related behaviors and engaged in significantly more and longer behaviors specifically indicating MSR when provided with small mirrors compared to a large mirror. Handheld mirrors provide a more sensitive measure for MSR within and likely between primate species than the traditional large mirrors, and thereby are a potentially valuable tool for studying self-awareness across species
Reply to Comment on "Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate"
In our analysis [Rahmstorf et al., 2004], we arrived at two main conclusions: the data of Shaviv and Veizer [2003] do not show a significant correlation of cosmic ray flux (CRF) and climate, and the authors' estimate of climate sensitivity to CO2 based on a simple regression analysis is questionable. After careful consideration of Shaviv and Veizer's comment, we want to uphold and reaffirm these conclusions. Concerning the question of correlation, we pointed out that a correlation arose only after several adjustments to the data, including shifting one of the four CRF peaks and stretching the time scale. To calculate statistical significance, we first need to compute the number of independent data points in the CRF and temperature curves being correlated, accounting for their autocorrelation. A standard estimate [Quenouille, 1952] of the number of effective data points is
urn:x-wiley:00963941:media:eost14930:eost14930-math-0001
where N is the total number of data points and r1, r2 are the autocorrelations of the two series. For the curves of Shaviv and Veizer [2003], the result is NEFF = 4.8. This is consistent with the fact that these are smooth curves with four humps, and with the fact that for CRF the position of the four peaks is determined by four spiral arm crossings or four meteorite clusters, respectively; that is, by four independent data points. The number of points that enter the calculation of statistical significance of a linear correlation is (NEFF− 2), since any curves based on only two points show perfect correlation; at least three independent points are needed for a meaningful result
Strong electric fields induced on a sharp stellar boundary
Due to a first order phase transition, a compact star may have a
discontinuous distribution of baryon as well as electric charge densities, as
e.g. at the surface of a strange quark star. The induced separation of positive
and negative charges may lead to generation of supercritical electric fields in
the vicinity of such a discontinuity. We study this effect within a
relativistic Thomas-Fermi approximation and demonstrate that the strength of
the electric field depends strongly on the degree of sharpness of the surface.
The influence of strong electric fields on the stability of compact stars is
discussed. It is demonstrated that stable configurations appear only when the
counter-pressure of degenerate fermions is taken into consideration.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure
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