Industrial Real Estate Prices and Market Efficiency

This study employs a multivariate Granger-causality procedure to examine causal relationships between selected economic and financial variables and industrial real estate prices. Empirical results indicate that relationships between several of these variables' lagged values and current values of price exist. We also find a significant relationship between past and current prices.

Effectiveness of lifestyle-based weight loss interventions for adults with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Aims: To provide a systematic review and meta-analysis of recent evidence on the effectiveness of lifestyle-based weight loss interventions for adults with type 2 diabetes

Identifying oceanic thermal anomalies in the coral triangle region

Mass coral bleaching has historically been linked to episodes of thermal stress. While locationspecific time-series data have been examined, the oceanic thermal anomalies that underlie broad-scale thermal stress events are apparently unstudied quantitatively in terms of their spatial extent, temporal development, and intensity. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters that characterise anomalies can be useful in understanding how bleaching-level stress develops, providing context for and a basis for modelling of future events. Here we examine historical satellite sea-surface temperature (SST) data with the goal of identifying and characterising oceanic anomalies in the Coral Triangle region. This region is of interest because it is influenced by the Indian and Pacific Oceans and is the centre of coral ecosystem diversity and significant coral reef conservation efforts. Oceanic anomalies are defined here using the HotSpot metric, which is the positive variation in temperature above the maximum of the monthly mean climatology values. This metric describes thermal stress that has been linked to coral bleaching episodes. It is proposed that the method for identifying oceanic anomalies described here be applied to datasets of varying spatial resolutions to evaluate if, and how, the characterisations are resolution-dependent. If these anomalies can be comparably identified and characterised at a coarser spatial resolution, this could open the way to examining the likely impact of oceanic thermal anomalies further back in time using historical datasets or in the future using climate models, both of which are available only at lower spatial and temporal resolutions

Global coral bleaching event detection from satellite monitoring of extreme heat stress

Over the past four decades, coral bleaching events have occurred with increasing frequency and severity, directly linked to increasing ocean temperature due to climate change. For the latter half of that period, satellite monitoring by NOAA Coral Reef Watch in near real-time has provided invaluable insight into bleaching risk. Here, we describe a novel application of those products to develop basin-scale tools for tracking the development of extreme heat events that enable monitoring of global coral bleaching events. Case studies of historical extreme events (1982-2018) across the three tropical ocean basins (Indian, Pacific and Atlantic) were analysed using this basin-scale approach to identify key thresholds of heat stress extent for the definition of global bleaching. Global-scale events are apparent when all three tropical basins experience heat stress in at least 10% of reef-containing locations. An 8-month ‘detection window’ was determined as the optimal period of time through which pixels exposed to heat stress should continue to be counted as part of a basin-scale event to account for seasonal variations across ocean basins. Understanding the broader context of basin-scale conditions can inform management of individual reefs, management networks and other reef stakeholders. Operationalising this product for near real-time delivery will provide an effective communication of the status of coral reefs around the world during an era of unprecedented climate threats

Overriding plate, mantle wedge, slab, and subslab contributions to seismic anisotropy beneath the northern Central Andean Plateau

The Central Andean Plateau, the second-highest plateau on Earth, overlies the subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the central portion of South America. The origin of the high topography remains poorly understood, and this puzzle is intimately tied to unanswered questions about processes in the upper mantle, including possible removal of the overriding plate lithosphere and interaction with the flow field that results from the driving forces associated with subduction. Observations of seismic anisotropy can provide important constraints on mantle flow geometry in subduction systems. The interpretation of seismic anisotropy measurements in subduction settings can be challenging, however, because different parts of the subduction system may contribute, including the overriding plate, the mantle wedge above the slab, the slab itself, and the deep upper mantle beneath the slab. Here we present measurements of shear wave splitting for core phases (SKS, SKKS, PKS, and sSKS), local S, and source-side teleseismic S phases that sample the upper mantle beneath southern Peru and northern Bolivia, relying mostly on data from the CAUGHT experiment. We find evidence for seismic anisotropy within most portions of the subduction system, although the overriding plate itself likely makes only a small contribution to the observed delay times. Average fast orientations generally trend roughly trench-parallel to trench-oblique, contradicting predictions from the simplest two-dimensional flow models and olivine fabric scenarios. Our measurements suggest complex, layered anisotropy beneath the northern portion of the Central Andean Plateau, with significant departures from a two-dimensional mantle flow regime

Internal deformation of the subducted Nazca slab inferred from seismic anisotropy

Within oceanic lithosphere a fossilized fabric is often preserved originating from the time of plate formation. Such fabric is thought to form at the mid-ocean ridge when olivine crystals align with the direction of plate spreading1, 2. It is unclear, however, whether this fossil fabric is preserved within slabs during subduction or overprinted by subduction-induced deformation. The alignment of olivine crystals, such as within fossil fabrics, can generate anisotropy that is sensed by passing seismic waves. Seismic anisotropy is therefore a useful tool for investigating the dynamics of subduction zones, but it has so far proved difficult to observe the anisotropic properties of the subducted slab itself. Here we analyse seismic anisotropy in the subducted Nazca slab beneath Peru and find that the fast direction of seismic wave propagation aligns with the contours of the slab. We use numerical modelling to simulate the olivine fabric created at the mid-ocean ridge, but find it is inconsistent with our observations of seismic anisotropy in the subducted Nazca slab. Instead we find that an orientation of the olivine crystal fast axes aligned parallel to the strike of the slab provides the best fit, consistent with along-strike extension induced by flattening of the slab during subduction (A. Kumar et al., manuscript in preparation). We conclude that the fossil fabric has been overprinted during subduction and that the Nazca slab must therefore be sufficiently weak to undergo internal deformation

Individualized decision aid for diverse women with lupus nephritis (IDEA-WON): A randomized controlled trial.

BackgroundTreatment decision-making regarding immunosuppressive therapy is challenging for individuals with lupus. We assessed the effectiveness of a decision aid for immunosuppressive therapy in lupus nephritis.Methods and findingsIn a United States multicenter, open-label, randomized controlled trial (RCT), adult women with lupus nephritis, mostly from racial/ethnic minority backgrounds with low socioeconomic status (SES), seen in in- or outpatient settings, were randomized to an individualized, culturally tailored, computerized decision aid versus American College of Rheumatology (ACR) lupus pamphlet (1:1 ratio), using computer-generated randomization. We hypothesized that the co-primary outcomes of decisional conflict and informed choice regarding immunosuppressive medications would improve more in the decision aid group. Of 301 randomized women, 298 were analyzed; 47% were African-American, 26% Hispanic, and 15% white. Mean age (standard deviation [SD]) was 37 (12) years, 57% had annual income of <$40,000, and 36% had a high school education or less. Compared with the provision of the ACR lupus pamphlet (n = 147), participants randomized to the decision aid (n = 151) had (1) a clinically meaningful and statistically significant reduction in decisional conflict, 21.8 (standard error [SE], 2.5) versus 12.7 (SE, 2.0; p = 0.005) and (2) no difference in informed choice in the main analysis, 41% versus 31% (p = 0.08), but clinically meaningful and statistically significant difference in sensitivity analysis (net values for immunosuppressives positive [in favor] versus negative [against]), 50% versus 35% (p = 0.006). Unresolved decisional conflict was lower in the decision aid versus pamphlet groups, 22% versus 44% (p < 0.001). Significantly more patients in the decision aid versus pamphlet group rated information to be excellent for understanding lupus nephritis (49% versus 33%), risk factors (43% versus 27%), medication options (50% versus 33%; p ≤ 0.003 for all); and the ease of use of materials was higher in the decision aid versus pamphlet groups (51% versus 38%; p = 0.006). Key study limitations were the exclusion of men, short follow-up, and the lack of clinical outcomes, including medication adherence.ConclusionsAn individualized decision aid was more effective than usual care in reducing decisional conflict for choice of immunosuppressive medications in women with lupus nephritis.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov, NCT02319525

Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring, outlooks and projections

International audienceTo forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host–pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 128C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 128C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats

Optimal spatiotemporal scales to aggregate satellite ocean color data for nearshore reefs and tropical coastal waters: two case studies

Remotely sensed ocean color data are useful for monitoring water quality in coastal environments. However, moderate resolution (hundreds of meters to a few kilometers) satellite data are underutilized in these environments because of frequent data gaps from cloud cover and algorithm complexities in shallow waters. Aggregating satellite data over larger space and time scales is a common method to reduce data gaps and generate a more complete time series, but potentially smooths out the small-scale, episodic changes in water quality that can have ecological influences. By comparing aggregated satellite estimates of Kd(490) with related in-water measurements, we can understand the extent to which aggregation methods are viable for filling gaps while being able to characterize ecologically relevant water quality conditions. In this study, we tested a combination of six spatial and seven temporal scales for aggregating data from the VIIRS instrument at several coral reef locations in Maui, Hawai‘i and Puerto Rico and compared these with in situ measurements of Kd(490) and turbidity. In Maui, we found that the median value of a 5-pixels, 7-days spatiotemporal cube of satellite data yielded a robust result capable of differentiating observations across small space and time domains and had the best correlation among spatiotemporal cubes when compared with in situ Kd(490) across 11 nearshore sites (R2 = 0.84). We also found long-term averages (i.e., chronic condition) of VIIRS data using this aggregation method follow a similar spatial pattern to onshore turbidity measurements along the Maui coast over a three-year period. In Puerto Rico, we found that the median of a 13-pixels, 13-days spatiotemporal cube of satellite data yielded the best overall result with an R2 = 0.54 when compared with in situ Kd(490) measurements for one nearshore site with measurement dates spanning 2016–2019. As spatiotemporal cubes of different dimensions yielded optimum results in the two locations, we recommend local analysis of spatial and temporal optima when applying this technique elsewhere. The use of satellite data and in situ water quality measurements provide complementary information, each enhancing understanding of the issues affecting coastal ecosystems, including coral reefs, and the success of management efforts

Results from the dissemination of an evidence-based telephone-delivered intervention for healthy lifestyle and weight loss: the Optimal Health Program

Despite proven efficacy, there are few published evaluations of telephone-delivered interventions targeting physical activity, healthy eating, and weight loss in community dissemination contexts. This study aims to evaluate participant and program outcomes from the Optimal Health Program, a telephone-delivered healthy lifestyle and weight loss program provided by a primary health care organization. Dissemination study used a single-group, repeated measures design; outcomes were assessed at 6-month (mid-program; n = 166) and 12-month (end of program; n = 88) using paired analyses. The program reached a representative sample of at-risk, primary care patients, with 56 % withdrawing before program completion. Among completers, a statistically significant improvement between baseline and end of program was observed for weight [mean change (SE) −5.4 (7.0) kg] and waist circumference [−4.8 (9.7) cm], underpinned by significant physical activity and dietary change. Findings suggest that telephone-delivered weight loss and healthy lifestyle programs can provide an effective model for use in primary care settings, but participant retention remains a challenge