Drug Abuse in the Hospitality Industry

Drug and alcohol abuse in the hospitality industry is an ongoing problem, reflective of business as a whole. A series of surveys were conducted at national drug rehabilitation centers seeking information from patients currently or formerly employed in the hotel and restaurant industry. The author identifies a number of problem indicators and makes recommendations relevant to resolutions

Poles Apart? EU Enlargement and the Labour Market Outcomes of immigrants in the UK

The UK was one of only three countries to allow migrants from accession countries to enter their labour markets more or less without restriction following EU enlargement in May 2004. Therefore, it is important to establish the characteristics and labour market performance of migrants from these countries who have subsequently entered the UK. We principally analyse Labour Force Survey data to compare the labour market outcomes of recent migrants from Poland and other accession countries to those of earlier migrant cohorts from these countries as well as to those of other recent migrants to the UK. We find that the majority of post-enlargement migrants from accession countries have found employment in low paying jobs, despite some (especially Poles) having relatively high levels of education. It follows that recent Polish migrants typically have lower returns to their education than other recent arrivals. Migrants from the new entrants who arrived immediately prior to enlargement possess similar characteristics and labour market outcomes, apart from having a higher propensity to be self-employed. These results are discussed in the context of policy changes, migration strategies, assimilation effects and possible impacts on the sending countries.Migration, EU Enlargement, Labour Market Outcomes

A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?

Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple 6-parameter representation of ensemble forecasting systems and the corresponding observations. The framework is probabilistic, and thus allows for quantifying uncertainty in predictability measures such as correlation skill and signal-to-noise ratios. It also provides a natural way to produce recalibrated probabilistic predictions from uncalibrated ensembles forecasts. The framework is used to address important questions concerning the skill of winter hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation for 1992-2011 issued by the Met Office GloSea5 climate prediction system. Although there is much uncertainty in the correlation between ensemble mean and observations, there is strong evidence of skill: the 95% credible interval of the correlation coefficient of [0.19,0.68] does not overlap zero. There is also strong evidence that the forecasts are not exchangeable with the observations: With over 99% certainty, the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasts is smaller than the signal-to-noise ratio of the observations, which suggests that raw forecasts should not be taken as representative scenarios of the observations. Forecast recalibration is thus required, which can be coherently addressed within the proposed framework.Comment: 36 pages, 10 figure

We are Designers Because We Can Abstract

Organised by: Cranfield UniversityDue to the increasing systems complexity, architecture design became an important issue. It gained interest and its importance was framed in three domains: as a way to understand complex systems, to design them, to manage their manufacturing process and to provide long-term rationality. The purpose of this paper is, firstly, to survey the existing definition approaches on architecture. Secondly, we propose a model for architecture design which articulates the potential linkage between two principle concepts: synthesis and abstraction. Our proposal model focuses on abstraction concept and permits an effective top-down design approach. It helps also designers to more respond to issues that characterize architecture design.Mori Seiki – The Machine Tool Compan