Game-theoretic analysis of China's WTO accession

This paper studies the determination of split of total surplus among the negotiating parties (member countries and the acceding country) in a WTO accession negotiation using a sequential bargaining model. In particular, we are interested in the effect of the most-favored-nation (MFN) principle on the negotiation outcome. The MFN principle says that any tariff reduction offered by the applicant for accession has to be automatically granted to all existing members. The model suggests that it is quite plausible that China's share of surplus is more when MFN is in place.preprin

A complete transition to clean household energy can save one–quarter of the healthy life lost to particulate matter pollution exposure in India

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) is a leading contributor to the disease burden in India, largely due to widespread household solid fuel use. The transition from solid to clean fuels in households has the potential to substantially improve public health. India has implemented large initiatives to promote clean fuel access, but how these initiatives will reduce PM _2.5 exposure and the associated health benefits have not yet been established. We quantified the impacts of a transition of household energy from solid fuel use to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) on public health in India from ambient and household PM _2.5 exposure. We estimate that the transition to LPG would reduce ambient PM _2.5 concentrations by 25%. Reduced exposure to total PM _2.5 results in a 29% reduction in the loss of healthy life, preventing 348 000 (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 284 000–373 000) premature mortalities every year. Achieving these benefits requires a complete transition to LPG. If access to LPG is restricted to within 15 km of urban centres, then the health benefits of the clean fuel transition are reduced by 50%. If half of original solid fuel users continue to use solid fuels in addition to LPG, then the health benefits of the clean fuel transition are reduced by 75%. As the exposure–outcome associations are non–linear, it is critical for air pollution studies to consider the disease burden attributed to total PM _2.5 exposure, and not only the portion attributed to either ambient or household PM _2.5 exposure. Our work shows that a transition to clean household energy can substantially improve public health in India, however, these large public health benefits are dependent on the complete transition to clean fuels for all

An Early Cambrian Rift to Post-Rift Transition in the Cordillera of Western North America

The upper Proterozoic and lower Palaeozoic wedge of miogeoclinal strata in the North American Cordillera is widely regarded as evidence for a proto-Pacific passive margin. The rifting history of this margin appears to have been protracted, possibly spanning more than 200 Myr in a tectonic setting that is not well understood. Quantitative subsidence analyses of lower Palaeozoic strata between British Columbia and Utah, however, provide indirect evidence that the transition from rifting to post-rift cooling occurred within a relatively short interval of time, although probably not synchronously, between 600 and 555 Myr. This age is significantly younger than that implied in previous studies. We describe here new field data, which, together with published geological data, provide direct evidence of a latest Proterozoic or early Cambrian age for the rift to post-rift transition. The data support recent arguments for widespread initiation of passive margins around the edge of the North American craton close to the Cambrian-Precambrian boundary

The Cosmic Microwave Background and Particle Physics

In forthcoming years, connections between cosmology and particle physics will be made increasingly important with the advent of a new generation of cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. Here, we review a number of these links. Our primary focus is on new CMB tests of inflation. We explain how the inflationary predictions for the geometry of the Universe and primordial density perturbations will be tested by CMB temperature fluctuations, and how the gravitational waves predicted by inflation can be pursued with the CMB polarization. The CMB signatures of topological defects and primordial magnetic fields from cosmological phase transitions are also discussed. Furthermore, we review current and future CMB constraints on various types of dark matter (e.g. massive neutrinos, weakly interacting massive particles, axions, vacuum energy), decaying particles, the baryon asymmetry of the Universe, ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, exotic cosmological topologies, and other new physics.Comment: 43 pages. To appear in Annual Reviews of Nuclear and Particle Scienc

Breakdown of the adiabatic limit in low dimensional gapless systems

It is generally believed that a generic system can be reversibly transformed from one state into another by sufficiently slow change of parameters. A standard argument favoring this assertion is based on a possibility to expand the energy or the entropy of the system into the Taylor series in the ramp speed. Here we show that this argumentation is only valid in high enough dimensions and can break down in low-dimensional gapless systems. We identify three generic regimes of a system response to a slow ramp: (A) mean-field, (B) non-analytic, and (C) non-adiabatic. In the last regime the limits of the ramp speed going to zero and the system size going to infinity do not commute and the adiabatic process does not exist in the thermodynamic limit. We support our results by numerical simulations. Our findings can be relevant to condensed-matter, atomic physics, quantum computing, quantum optics, cosmology and others.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, to appear in Nature Physics (originally submitted version

The Distances of the Magellanic Clouds

The present status of our knowledge of the distances to the Magellanic Clouds is evaluated from a post-Hipparcos perspective. After a brief summary of the effects of structure, reddening, age and metallicity, the primary distance indicators for the Large Magellanic Cloud are reviewed: The SN 1987A ring, Cepheids, RR Lyraes, Mira variables, and Eclipsing Binaries. Distances derived via these methods are weighted and combined to produce final "best" estimates for the Magellanic Clouds distance moduli.Comment: Invited review article to appear in ``Post Hipparcos Cosmic Candles'', F. Caputo & A. Heck (Eds.), Kluwer Academic Publ., Dordrecht, in pres

Does insurance fraud in automobile theft insurance fluctuate with the business cycle?

[[abstract]]Financial institutions face various cyclical risks, but very few studies have analyzed the cyclicality of operational risk. External fraud is an important operational risk faced by insurers. In this research, we analyze the empirical relationship between insurance fraud and business cycle and we concentrate our study on two insurance contracts that may create an incentive to defraud. We find that residual insurance fraud exists both in the contract with replacement cost endorsement and the contract with no-deductible endorsement in the Taiwan automobile theft insurance market. These results are consistent with previous literature on the relationship between fraud activity and non-optimal insurance contracting. We also show that the severity of insurance fraud is countercyclical. Fraud is stimulated during periods of recession and mitigated during periods of expansion. Although this last result seems intuitive, our contribution is the first to measure its significance.[[notice]]補正完畢[[incitationindex]]SSCI[[booktype]]紙本[[booktype]]電子

Developing and testing a measure of consultation-based reassurance for people with low back pain in primary care:a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Reassurance from physicians is commonly recommended in guidelines for the management of low back pain (LBP), but the process of reassurance and its impact on patients is poorly researched. We aimed to develop a valid and reliable measure of the process of reassurance during LBP consultations. METHODS: Items representing the data-gathering stage of the consultation and affective and cognitive reassurance were generated from literature on physician-patient communication and piloted with expert researchers and physicians, a Patient and Public Involvement group, and LBP patients to form a questionnaire. Patients presenting for LBP at 43 General Practice surgeries were sent the questionnaire. The questionnaire was analysed with Rasch modelling, using two samples from the same population of recent LBP consultations: the first (n = 157, follow-up n = 84) for exploratory analysis and the second (n = 162, follow-up n = 74) for confirmatory testing. Responses to the questionnaire were compared with responses to satisfaction and enablement scales to assess the external validity of the items, and participants completed the questionnaire again one-week later to assess test-retest reliability. RESULTS: The questionnaire was separated into four subscales: data-gathering, relationship-building, generic reassurance, and cognitive reassurance, each containing three items. All subscales showed good validity within the Rasch models, and good reliability based on person- and item-separations and test-retest reliability. All four subscales were significantly positively correlated with satisfaction and enablement for both samples. The final version of the questionnaire is presented here. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the measure has demonstrated a good level of validity and generally acceptable reliability. This is the first measure to focus specifically on reassurance for LBP in primary care settings, and will enable researchers to further understanding of what is reassuring within the context of low back pain consultations, and how outcomes are affected by different types of reassurance. Additionally, the measure may provide a useful training and audit tool for physicians. The new measure requires testing in prospective cohorts, and would benefit from further validation against ethnographic observation of consultations in real time

Metastasis of hormone-independent breast cancer to lung and bone is decreased by α-difluoromethylornithine treatment

INTRODUCTION: Polyamines affect proliferation, differentiation, migration and apoptosis of cells, indicating their potential as a target for cancer chemotherapy. Ornithine decarboxylase converts ornithine to putrescine and is the rate-limiting step in polyamine synthesis. α-Difluoromethylornithine (DFMO) irreversibly inhibits ornithine decarboxylase and MDA-MB-435 human breast cancer metastasis to the lung without blocking orthotopic tumor growth. This study tested the effects of DFMO on orthotopic tumor growth and lung colonization of another breast cancer cell line (MDA-MB-231) and the effects on bone metastasis of MDA-MB-435 cells. METHODS: MDA-MB-231 cells were injected into the mammary fat pad of athymic mice. DFMO treatment (2% per orally) began at the day of tumor cell injection or 21 days post injection. Tumor growth was measured weekly. MDA-MB-231 cells were injected into the tail vein of athymic mice. DFMO treatment began 7 days prior to injection, or 7 or 14 days post injection. The number and incidence of lung metastases were determined. Green fluorescent protein-tagged MDA-MB-435 cells were injected into the left cardiac ventricle in order to assess the incidence and extent of metastasis to the femur. DFMO treatment began 7 days prior to injection. RESULTS: DFMO treatment delayed MDA-MB-231 orthotopic tumor growth to a greater extent than growth of MDA-MB-435 tumors. The most substantial effect on lung colonization by MDA-MB-231 cells occurred when DFMO treatment began 7 days before intravenous injection of tumor cells (incidence decreased 28% and number of metastases per lung decreased 35–40%). When DFMO treatment began 7 days post injection, the incidence and number of metastases decreased less than 10%. Surprisingly, treatment initiated 14 days after tumor cell inoculation resulted in a nearly 50% reduction in the number of lung metastases without diminishing the incidence. After intracardiac injection, DFMO treatment decreased the incidence of bone metastases (55% vs 87%) and the area occupied by the tumor (1.66 mm(2 )vs 4.51 mm(2), P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Taken together, these data demonstrate that DFMO exerts an anti-metastatic effect in more than one hormone-independent breast cancer, for which no standard form of biologically-based treatment exists. Importantly, the data show that DFMO is effective against metastasis to multiple sites and that treatment is generally more effective when administered early