North Atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction: underlying science and an evaluation of statistical models

Statistically-based seasonal hurricane outlooks for the North Atlantic were initiated by Colorado State University (CSU) in 1984, and have been issued every year since that time by CSU. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and the UK-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) have the next longest records (1998-present) of continuous outlooks. This chapter describes how these three forecasts have evolved with time, and documents the approaches, the environmental fields, and the lead times which underpin the models’ operation. Some of the environmental parameters used in early seasonal outlooks are no longer employed, but new predictive fields have been found which appear to be more important for seasonal hurricane prediction. An assessment is made of the deterministic skill of the seasonal hurricane outlooks issued in real-time by CSU, NOAA, and TSR between 2003 and 2014. All methods show moderate-to-good skill for early August outlooks (prior to the most active portion of the hurricane season), low-to-moderate skill for outlooks issued in early June, and lesser skill for outlooks issued in early April. Overall, the TSR model has the most skillful predictions of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), while NOAA has the best named storm predictions issued in early August

Interpreting measures of fundamental movement skills and their relationship with health-related physical activity and self-concept

The aims of this study were to determine proficiency levels of fundamental movement skills using cluster analysis in a cohort of U.K. primary school children; and to further examine the relationships between fundamental movement skills proficiency and other key aspects of health-related physical activity behavior. Participants were 553 primary children between 9- and 12-years old, 294 boys and 259 girls, who were assessed across eight different fundamental movement skills. Physical activity behaviors included markers of physical fitness, recall of physical activity behavior, and physical self-concept. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to classify groups based on fundamental movement skills proficiencies and discriminant analysis to predict fundamental movement skills proficiency based upon the physical activity variables. This interpretation of fundamental movement skills performance revealed distinct groups of fundamental movement skills proficiency in both genders with several gender-specific components of physical activity shown to discriminate children with differing levels of fundamental movement skills proficiency (p .40)

Positive and negative well-being and objectively measured sedentary behaviour in older adults: evidence from three cohorts

Background: Sedentary behaviour is related to poorer health independently of time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity. The aim of this study was to investigate whether wellbeing or symptoms of anxiety or depression predict sedentary behaviour in older adults. Method: Participants were drawn from the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936) (n = 271), and the West of Scotland Twenty-07 1950s (n = 309) and 1930s (n = 118) cohorts. Sedentary outcomes, sedentary time, and number of sit-to-stand transitions, were measured with a three-dimensional accelerometer (activPAL activity monitor) worn for 7 days. In the Twenty-07 cohorts, symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed in 2008 and sedentary outcomes were assessed ~ 8 years later in 2015 and 2016. In the LBC1936 cohort, wellbeing and symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed concurrently with sedentary behaviour in 2015 and 2016. We tested for an association between wellbeing, anxiety or depression and the sedentary outcomes using multivariate regression analysis. Results: We observed no association between wellbeing or symptoms of anxiety and the sedentary outcomes. Symptoms of depression were positively associated with sedentary time in the LBC1936 and Twenty-07 1950s cohort, and negatively associated with number of sit-to-stand transitions in the LBC1936. Meta-analytic estimates of the association between depressive symptoms and sedentary time or number of sit-to-stand transitions, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, long-standing illness, and education, were β = 0.11 (95% CI = 0.03, 0.18) and β = − 0.11 (95% CI = − 0.19, −0.03) respectively. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that depressive symptoms are positively associated with sedentary behavior. Future studies should investigate the causal direction of this association

SNPs Occur in Regions with Less Genomic Sequence Conservation

Rates of SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) and cross-species genomic sequence conservation reflect intra- and inter-species variation, respectively. Here, I report SNP rates and genomic sequence conservation adjacent to mRNA processing regions and show that, as expected, more SNPs occur in less conserved regions and that functional regions have fewer SNPs. Results are confirmed using both mouse and human data. Regions include protein start codons, 3′ splice sites, 5′ splice sites, protein stop codons, predicted miRNA binding sites, and polyadenylation sites. Throughout, SNP rates are lower and conservation is higher at regulatory sites. Within coding regions, SNP rates are highest and conservation is lowest at codon position three and the fewest SNPs are found at codon position two, reflecting codon degeneracy for amino acid encoding. Exon splice sites show high conservation and very low SNP rates, reflecting both splicing signals and protein coding. Relaxed constraint on the codon third position is dramatically seen when separating exonic SNP rates based on intron phase. At polyadenylation sites, a peak of conservation and low SNP rate occurs from 30 to 17 nt preceding the site. This region is highly enriched for the sequence AAUAAA, reflecting the location of the conserved polyA signal. miRNA 3′ UTR target sites are predicted incorporating interspecies genomic sequence conservation; SNP rates are low in these sites, again showing fewer SNPs in conserved regions. Together, these results confirm that SNPs, reflecting recent genetic variation, occur more frequently in regions with less evolutionarily conservation

Development of the lateral ventricular choroid plexus in a marsupial, Monodelphis domestica

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Choroid plexus epithelial cells are the site of blood/cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) barrier and regulate molecular transfer between the two compartments. Their mitotic activity in the adult is low. During development, the pattern of growth and timing of acquisition of functional properties of plexus epithelium are not known.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Numbers and size of choroid plexus epithelial cells and their nuclei were counted and measured in the lateral ventricular plexus from the first day of its appearance until adulthood. Newborn <it>Monodelphis </it>pups were injected with 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine (BrdU) at postnatal day 3 (P3), P4 and P5. Additional animals were injected at P63, P64 and P65. BrdU-immunopositive nuclei were counted and their position mapped in the plexus structure at different ages after injections. Double-labelling immunocytochemistry with antibodies to plasma protein identified post-mitotic cells involved in protein transfer.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Numbers of choroid plexus epithelial cells increased 10-fold between the time of birth and adulthood. In newborn pups each consecutive injection of BrdU labelled 20-40 of epithelial cells counted. After 3 injections, numbers of BrdU positive cells remained constant for at least 2 months. BrdU injections at an older age (P63, P64, P65) resulted in a smaller number of labelled plexus cells. Numbers of plexus cells immunopositive for both BrdU and plasma protein increased with age indicating that protein transferring properties are acquired post mitotically. Labelled nuclei were only detected on the dorsal arm of the plexus as it grows from the neuroependyma, moving along the structure in a 'conveyor belt' like fashion.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The present study established that lateral ventricular choroid plexus epithelial cells are born on the dorsal side of the structure only. Cells born in the first few days after choroid plexus differentiation from the neuroependyma remain present even two months later. Protein-transferring properties are acquired post-mitotically and relatively early in plexus development.</p

Virtual Northern Analysis of the Human Genome

BACKGROUND: We applied the Virtual Northern technique to human brain mRNA to systematically measure human mRNA transcript lengths on a genome-wide scale. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used separation by gel electrophoresis followed by hybridization to cDNA microarrays to measure 8,774 mRNA transcript lengths representing at least 6,238 genes at high (>90%) confidence. By comparing these transcript lengths to the Refseq and H-Invitational full-length cDNA databases, we found that nearly half of our measurements appeared to represent novel transcript variants. Comparison of length measurements determined by hybridization to different cDNAs derived from the same gene identified clones that potentially correspond to alternative transcript variants. We observed a close linear relationship between ORF and mRNA lengths in human mRNAs, identical in form to the relationship we had previously identified in yeast. Some functional classes of protein are encoded by mRNAs whose untranslated regions (UTRs) tend to be longer or shorter than average; these functional classes were similar in both human and yeast. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Human transcript diversity is extensive and largely unannotated. Our length dataset can be used as a new criterion for judging the completeness of cDNAs and annotating mRNA sequences. Similar relationships between the lengths of the UTRs in human and yeast mRNAs and the functions of the proteins they encode suggest that UTR sequences serve an important regulatory role among eukaryotes

Usefulness and acceptability of a standardised orientation and mobility training for partially-sighted older adults using an identification cane

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Orientation and mobility (O&M) training in using an identification (ID) cane is provided to partially-sighted older adults to facilitate independent functioning and participation in the community. Recently, a protocolised standardised O&M-training in the use of the ID cane was developed in The Netherlands. The purpose of this study is to assess the usefulness and acceptability of both the standardised training and the regular training for participants and O&M-trainers in a randomised controlled trial (NCT00946062).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The standardised O&M-training consists of two structured face-to-face sessions and one telephone follow-up, in which, in addition to the regular training, self-management and behavioural change techniques are applied. Questionnaires and interviews were used to collect data on the training’s usefulness, e.g. the population reached, self-reported benefits or achievements, and acceptability, e.g. the performance of the intervention according to protocol and participants’ exposure to and engagement in the training.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data was collected from 29 O&M-trainers and 68 participants. Regarding the self-reported benefits, outcomes were comparable for the standardised training and the regular training according the trainers and participants e.g., about 85% of the participants in both groups experienced benefits of the cane and about 70% gained confidence in their capabilities. Participants were actively involved in the standardised training. Nearly 40% of the participants in the standardised training group was not exposed to the training according to protocol regarding the number of sessions scheduled and several intervention elements, such as action planning and contracting.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The standardised and regular O&M-training showed to be useful and mostly acceptable for the partially-sighted older adults and trainers. Yet, a concern is the deviation from the protocol of the standardised O&M-training by the O&M-trainers regarding distinguishing elements such as action planning. Overall, participants appreciated both trainings and reported benefit.</p