State of the Art in Agent-Based Modeling of Urban Crime: An Overview

OBJECTIVES: Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a type of computer simulation that creates a virtual society and allows controlled experimentation. ABM has the potential to be a powerful tool for exploring criminological theory and testing the plausibility of crime prevention interventions when data are unavailable, when they would be unethical to collect, or when policy-makers need an answer quickly. This paper takes stock of the current literature to discuss the potential contributions of ABM, assess current practice, identify shortcomings that threaten the validity of findings using ABM, and to make suggestions regarding the construction and communication of future work using ABM. METHODS: We systematically searched major databases to find all publications using ABM to simulate urban crime patterns and coded publications to quantify the following information: (1) characteristics of the publication, the model and the agents, (2) model purpose, (3) crime type investigated, and (4) interrogation of the model via sensitivity testing and validation. RESULTS: After sifting papers according to our inclusion criteria, we identified and reviewed 45 publications. Models informed by the opportunity theory framework dominated. Most publications lacked detail sufficient to enable replication. Many did not include clear a rationale for modeling choices, parameter selection or calibration. Rarely were parameters calibrated using empirical data. Model validation was limited and inconsistent across papers. CONCLUSIONS: ABM offers significant potential for criminological enquiry. However, at present, the lack of model detail reported in publications makes it difficult to assess where sufficient evidence exists to support—and where gaps limit—the development of models that reflect extant conditions and offender decision-making. For the field to progress, as a minimum, standardized reporting that encourages transparency will be necessary

Crime and the NTE: multi-classification crime (MCC) hot spots in time and space

This paper examines crime hot spots near licensed premises in the night-time economy (NTE) to investigate whether hot spots of four different classification of crime and disorder co-occur in time and place, namely violence, disorder, drugs and criminal damage. It introduces the concept of multi-classification crime (MCC) hot spots; the presence of hot spots of more than one crime classification at the same place. Furthermore, it explores the temporal patterns of identified MCC hot spots, to determine if they exhibit distinct spatio-temporal patterns. Getis Ord (GI*) hot spot analysis was used to identify locations of statistically significant hot spots of each of the four crime and disorder classifications. Strong spatial correlations were found between licensed premises and each of the four crime and disorder classifications analysed. MCC hot spots were also identified near licensed premises. Temporal profiling of the MCC hot spots revealed all four crime types were simultaneously present in time and place, near licensed premises, on Friday through Sunday in the early hours of the morning around premise closing times. At other times, criminal damage and drugs hot spots were found to occur earlier in the evening, and disorder and violence at later time periods. Criminal damage and drug hot spots flared for shorter time periods, 2–3 h, whereas disorder and violence hot spots were present for several hours. There was a small spatial lag between Friday and Saturday, with offences occurring approximately 1 h later on Saturdays. The implications of these findings for hot spot policing are discussed

Sustaining the crime reduction impact of designing out crime: Re-evaluating the Secured by Design scheme 10 years on

Secured by Design (SBD) is an award scheme that aims to encourage housing developers to design out crime at the planning or concept stage. The scheme is managed by the Association of Chief Police Officers Crime Reduction Initiatives (ACPO CPI) while the day-to-day delivery of the scheme is conducted by Architectural Liaison Officers (ALOs) or Crime Prevention Design Advisors (CPDAs) working for individual police forces throughout the United Kingdom. The scheme sets standards for compliance that developments must meet to be awarded SBD status. This article presents the findings of research conducted over a 10-year period (1999–2009) into the effectiveness of the SBD scheme as a crime reduction measure. Utilising a variety of methods, the research aims to establish whether residents living within SBD developments experience less crime and fear of crime than their non-SBD counterparts; whether SBD developments show less visual signs of crime and disorder than their non-SBD counterparts; and finally, whether properties built to the SBD standard are able to sustain any crime reduction benefits over a 10-year period