180 research outputs found
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Negative Binomial Dispersion Parameter for Highly Overdispersed Data, with Applications to Infectious Diseases
BACKGROUND: The negative binomial distribution is used commonly throughout biology as a model for overdispersed count data, with attention focused on the negative binomial dispersion parameter, k. A substantial literature exists on the estimation of k, but most attention has focused on datasets that are not highly overdispersed (i.e., those with k≥1), and the accuracy of confidence intervals estimated for k is typically not explored. METHODOLOGY: This article presents a simulation study exploring the bias, precision, and confidence interval coverage of maximum-likelihood estimates of k from highly overdispersed distributions. In addition to exploring small-sample bias on negative binomial estimates, the study addresses estimation from datasets influenced by two types of event under-counting, and from disease transmission data subject to selection bias for successful outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Results show that maximum likelihood estimates of k can be biased upward by small sample size or under-reporting of zero-class events, but are not biased downward by any of the factors considered. Confidence intervals estimated from the asymptotic sampling variance tend to exhibit coverage below the nominal level, with overestimates of k comprising the great majority of coverage errors. Estimation from outbreak datasets does not increase the bias of k estimates, but can add significant upward bias to estimates of the mean. Because k varies inversely with the degree of overdispersion, these findings show that overestimation of the degree of overdispersion is very rare for these datasets
Dynamical Boson Stars
The idea of stable, localized bundles of energy has strong appeal as a model
for particles. In the 1950s John Wheeler envisioned such bundles as smooth
configurations of electromagnetic energy that he called {\em geons}, but none
were found. Instead, particle-like solutions were found in the late 1960s with
the addition of a scalar field, and these were given the name {\em boson
stars}. Since then, boson stars find use in a wide variety of models as sources
of dark matter, as black hole mimickers, in simple models of binary systems,
and as a tool in finding black holes in higher dimensions with only a single
killing vector. We discuss important varieties of boson stars, their dynamic
properties, and some of their uses, concentrating on recent efforts.Comment: 79 pages, 25 figures, invited review for Living Reviews in
Relativity; major revision in 201
'Be active, eat right', evaluation of an overweight prevention protocol among 5-year-old children: design of a cluster randomised controlled trial
BACKGROUND: The prevalence of overweight and obesity in children has at least doubled in the past 25 years with a major impact on health. In 2005 a prevention protocol was developed applicable within Youth Health Care. This study aims to assess the effects of this protocol on prevalence of overweight and health behaviour among children. METHODS AND DESIGN: A cluster randomised controlled trial is conducted among 5-year-old children included by 44 Youth Health Care teams randomised within 9 Municipal Health Services. The teams are randomly allocated to the intervention or control group. The teams measure the weight and height of all children. When a child in the intervention group is detected with overweight according to the international age and gender specific cut-off points of BMI, the prevention protocol is applied. According to this protocol parents of overweight children are invited for up to three counselling sessions during which they receive personal advice about a healthy lifestyle, and are motivated for and assisted in behavioural change.The primary outcome measures are Body Mass Index and waist circumference of the children. Parents will complete questionnaires to assess secondary outcome measures: levels of overweight inducing/reducing behaviours (i.e. being physically active, having breakfast, drinking sweet beverages and watching television/playing computer games), parenting styles, parenting practices, and attitudes of parents regarding these behaviours, health-related quality of life of the children, and possible negative side effects of the prevention protocol. Data will be collected at baseline (when the children are aged 5 years), and after 12 and 24 months of follow-up. Additionally, a process and a cost-effectiveness evaluation will be conducted. DISCUSSION: In this study called 'Be active, eat right' we evaluate an overweight prevention protocol for use in the setting of Youth Health Care. It is hypothesized that the use of this protocol will result in a healthier lifestyle of the children and an improved BMI and waist circumference. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN04965410
Effect of within-species plant genotype mixing on habitat preference of a polyphagous insect predator
The effects of within-species plant genotype mixing on the habitat preference of a polyphagous ladybird were studied. Plant species diversity is often claimed to positively affect habitat preferences of insect predators, but the effects of within-species genotype diversity have not been extensively studied. In a field experiment with different barley (Hordeum vulgare) genotypes in mixed and pure stands, adult seven-spot ladybird Coccinella septempunctata, a polyphagous predator, preferred a specific combination of genotypes over the single genotypes alone before aphids had arrived in the crop, and again when aphids were emigrating. In laboratory experiments on adult ladybird orientation to odour from barley, ladybirds were attracted/arrested by the mixed odour of the same barley genotype mixture that was preferred in the field. Exposure of one barley genotype to volatiles from the other also caused the odour of the exposed plants to become more attractive to ladybirds. The results support the hypothesis that plant volatiles may attract or arrest foraging adult ladybirds, contributing to the selection of favourable habitats, and they show that within-species plant genotype mixing can shape interactions within multitrophic communities
The effect of a supplementary ('Gist-based') information leaflet on colorectal cancer knowledge and screening intention: a randomized controlled trial.
Guided by Fuzzy Trace Theory, this study examined the impact of a 'Gist-based' leaflet on colorectal cancer screening knowledge and intentions; and tested the interaction with participants' numerical ability. Adults aged 45-59 years from four UK general practices were randomly assigned to receive standard information ('The Facts', n = 2,216) versus standard information plus 'The Gist' leaflet (Gist + Facts, n = 2,236). Questionnaires were returned by 964/4,452 individuals (22 %). 82 % of respondents reported having read the information, but those with poor numeracy were less likely (74 vs. 88 %, p < .001). The 'Gist + Facts' group were more likely to reach the criterion for adequate knowledge (95 vs. 91 %; p < .01), but this was not moderated by numeracy. Most respondents (98 %) intended to participate in screening, with no group differences and no interaction with numeracy. The improved levels of knowledge and self-reported reading suggest 'The Gist' leaflet may increase engagement with colorectal cancer screening, but ceiling effects reduced the likelihood that screening intentions would be affected
Impact of MUC1 Mucin Downregulation in the Phenotypic Characteristics of MKN45 Gastric Carcinoma Cell Line
BACKGROUND: Gastric carcinoma is the second leading cause of cancer-associated death worldwide. The high mortality associated with this disease is in part due to limited knowledge about gastric carcinogenesis and a lack of available therapeutic and prevention strategies. MUC1 is a high molecular weight transmembrane mucin protein expressed at the apical surface of most glandular epithelial cells and a major component of the mucus layer above gastric mucosa. Overexpression of MUC1 is found in approximately 95% of human adenocarcinomas, where it is associated with oncogenic activity. The role of MUC1 in gastric cancer progression remains to be clarified. METHODOLOGY: We downregulated MUC1 expression in a gastric carcinoma cell line by RNA interference and studied the effects on cellular proliferation (MTT assay), apoptosis (TUNEL assay), migration (migration assay), invasion (invasion assay) and aggregation (aggregation assay). Global gene expression was evaluated by microarray analysis to identify alterations that are regulated by MUC1 expression. In vivo assays were also performed in mice, in order to study the tumorigenicity of cells with and without MUC1 downregulation in MKN45 gastric carcinoma cell line. RESULTS: Downregulation of MUC1 expression increased proliferation and apoptosis as compared to controls, whereas cell-cell aggregation was decreased. No significant differences were found in terms of migration and invasion between the downregulated clones and the controls. Expression of TCN1, KLK6, ADAM29, LGAL4, TSPAN8 and SHPS-1 was found to be significantly different between MUC1 downregulated clones and the control cells. In vivo assays have shown that mice injected with MUC1 downregulated cells develop smaller tumours when compared to mice injected with the control cells. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that MUC1 downregulation alters the phenotype and tumorigenicity of MKN45 gastric carcinoma cells and also the expression of several molecules that can be involved in tumorigenic events. Therefore, MUC1 should be further studied to better clarify its potential as a novel therapeutic target for gastric cancer
Phasevarions Mediate Random Switching of Gene Expression in Pathogenic Neisseria
Many host-adapted bacterial pathogens contain DNA methyltransferases (mod genes) that are subject to phase-variable expression (high-frequency reversible ON/OFF switching of gene expression). In Haemophilus influenzae, the random switching of the modA gene controls expression of a phase-variable regulon of genes (a “phasevarion”), via differential methylation of the genome in the modA ON and OFF states. Phase-variable mod genes are also present in Neisseria meningitidis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae, suggesting that phasevarions may occur in these important human pathogens. Phylogenetic studies on phase-variable mod genes associated with type III restriction modification (R-M) systems revealed that these organisms have two distinct mod genes—modA and modB. There are also distinct alleles of modA (abundant: modA11, 12, 13; minor: modA4, 15, 18) and modB (modB1, 2). These alleles differ only in their DNA recognition domain. ModA11 was only found in N. meningitidis and modA13 only in N. gonorrhoeae. The recognition site for the modA13 methyltransferase in N. gonorrhoeae strain FA1090 was identified as 5′-AGAAA-3′. Mutant strains lacking the modA11, 12 or 13 genes were made in N. meningitidis and N. gonorrhoeae and their phenotype analyzed in comparison to a corresponding mod ON wild-type strain. Microarray analysis revealed that in all three modA alleles multiple genes were either upregulated or downregulated, some of which were virulence-associated. For example, in N. meningitidis MC58 (modA11), differentially expressed genes included those encoding the candidate vaccine antigens lactoferrin binding proteins A and B. Functional studies using N. gonorrhoeae FA1090 and the clinical isolate O1G1370 confirmed that modA13 ON and OFF strains have distinct phenotypes in antimicrobial resistance, in a primary human cervical epithelial cell model of infection, and in biofilm formation. This study, in conjunction with our previous work in H. influenzae, indicates that phasevarions may be a common strategy used by host-adapted bacterial pathogens to randomly switch between “differentiated” cell types
Giants on the landscape: modelling the abundance of megaherbivorous dinosaurs of the Morrison Formation (Late Jurassic, western USA)
Lawson criterion for ignition exceeded in an inertial fusion experiment
For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion
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