Applicability of the most frequent value method in groundwater modeling

The Most Frequent Value Method (MFV) is applied to groundwater modeling as a robust and effective geostatistical method. The Most Frequent Value method is theoretically derived from the minimization of the information loss called the I-divergence. The MFV algorithm is then coupled with global optimization (Very Fast Simulated Annealing) to provide a powerful method for solving the inverse problems in groundwater modeling. The advantages and applicability of this new approach are illustrated by means of theoretical investigations and case studies. It is demonstrated that the MFV method has certain advantages over the conventional statistical methods derived from the maximum likelihood principle

Surface and subsurface conceptual model of an arid environment with respect to mid- and late Holocene climate changes

The water demand in arid regions is commonly covered by groundwater resources that date back to more humid periods of the Pleistocene and Holocene. Within the investigated arid part of SE Saudi-Arabia information about climate, groundwater levels, and pumping rates are only available for regions where groundwater extractions occur at present-day. For the prediction of the impact of long-term climate changes on groundwater resources an understanding of the hydrogeological and hydrological past and the development of the aquifers is necessary. Therefore, all available information about hydrology and hydrogeology for the past 10,000 years BP were collected and compiled to a conceptual model of the aquifer development on the Arabian Peninsula since the last Ice-Age. The climatic history was displayed by changes in precipitation, temperature and recharge during the mid-S and late Holocene. The hydrogeological development is described by groundwater ages, sea level fluctuations, movement of the coastline, and the development of sabkhas. The most sensitive parameter to describe the development of aquifer system is recharge. Present-day recharge was calculated with the hydrological model system HEC-HMS accounting for current precipitation, temperature, wind, soil types, and geomorphology. With respect to changes in precipitation and temperature over the past 10,000 years the temporal and spatial variability of groundwater recharge was calculated using empirical equations valid for semi-arid and arid settings. Further inflow into the groundwater system results from surface water infiltration in wadi beds, while natural outflow from the groundwater system occurs by discharge to the Gulf, evaporation from sabkhas, and spring discharge. Backward predictions can be verified by sedimentological observations of palaeo-river systems and lakes indicating that groundwater levels reached temporarily the surface under wetter climate conditions and C-14 groundwater ages displaying groundwater residence times