Forecasting electricity consumption using SARIMA method in IBM SPSS software

Forecasting is a prediction of future values based on historical data. It can be conducted using various methods such as statistical methods or machine learning techniques. Electricity is a necessity of modern life. Hence, accurate forecasting of electricity demand is important. Overestimation will cause a waste of energy but underestimation leads to higher operation costs. Univesity Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) is a developing Malaysian technical university, therefore there is a need to forecast UTHM electricity consumption for future decisions on generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development. The monthly UTHM electricity consumption data exhibits seasonality-periodic fluctuations. Thus, the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method was applied in IBM SPSS software to predict UTHM electricity consumption for 2019 via Box-Jenkins method and Expert Modeler. There were a total of 120 observations taken from January year 2009 to December year 2018 to build the models. The best model from both methods is SARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12. It was found that the result through the Box-Jenkins method is approximately the same with the result generated through Expert Modeler in SPSS with MAPE of 8.4%

A Case of Birt-Hogg-Dubé Syndrome

Birt-Hogg-Dubé syndrome (BHDS) is an autosomal dominant genodermatosis characterized by cutaneous hair follicle tumors (fibrofolliculoma or trichodiscoma), pulmonary cysts, and increased risk of renal neoplasia. The genetic alteration for BHDS has been mapped to chromosome 17p12q11, and the gene in this region has been cloned and believed to be responsible for the BHDS. Mutations in the BHD gene (also known as FLCN) have been described in the patients with BHDS. We present a case of a 30-yr-old Korean woman with multiple mildly pruritic papules on her face and neck area. The patient had several firm, flesh-colored, dome-shaped, papular lesions measuring between 2 to 5 mm. Except for a history of pneumothorax her medical records were not remarkable. Mutation analysis of the BHD gene was performed, and a novel deletion mutation (p.F519LfsX17 [c.1557delT]) causing truncation of the gene product, folliculin, was found in the exon 14. The actual incidence of BHDS is unknown, but it is most likely underdiagnosed. So it is imperative that doctors recognize the skin lesions of BHDS and institute proper screening to detect other manifestations of the disease. Here, we report a case of BHDS with a novel mutation, which is the first report in Korea

Troubleshooting Arterial-Phase MR Images of Gadoxetate Disodium-Enhanced Liver.

Gadoxetate disodium is a widely used magnetic resonance (MR) contrast agent for liver MR imaging, and it provides both dynamic and hepatobiliary phase images. However, acquiring optimal arterial phase images at liver MR using gadoxetate disodium is more challenging than using conventional extracellular MR contrast agent because of the small volume administered, the gadolinium content of the agent, and the common occurrence of transient severe motion. In this article, we identify the challenges in obtaining high-quality arterial-phase images of gadoxetate disodium-enhanced liver MR imaging and present strategies for optimizing arterial-phase imaging based on the thorough review of recent research in this field

Tensile Properties of Inkjet 3D Printed Parts: Critical Process Parameters and Their Efficient Analysis

To design and optimize for capabilities of additive manufacturing processes it is also necessary to understand and model their variations in geometric and mechanical properties. In this paper, such variations of inkjet 3D printed parts are systematically investigated by analyzing parameters of the whole process, i.e. storage of the material, printing, testing, and storage of finished parts. The goal is to both understand the process and determine the parameters that lead to the best mechanical properties and the most accurate geometric properties. Using models based on this understanding, we can design and optimize parts, and fabricate and test them successfully, thus closing the loop. Since AM materials change rapidly and this process will have to be repeated, it is shown how to create a cost and time efficient experimental design with the one-factor-at-a-time and design of experiments methods, yielding high statistical accuracies for both main and interaction effects. The results show that the number of intersections between layers and nozzles along the load-direction has the strongest impact on the mechanical properties followed by the UV exposure time, which is investigated by part spacing, the position on the printing table and the expiry date of the material. Minor effects are found for the storage time and the surface roughness is not affected by any factor. Nozzle blockage, which leads to a smaller flow-rate of printing material, significantly affected the width and waviness of the printed product. Furthermore, the machine’s warm-up time is found to be an important factor

A network-oriented adaptive agent model for learning regulation of a highly sensitive person’s response

Inspired by the work of Elaine Aron, in this paper a human-like adaptive computational agent model of the internal processes of a highly sensitive person (HSP) is presented. This agent model was used to get a better understanding of what goes wrong in these internal processes once this person gets upset. A scenario is addressed where a highly sensitive person will get upset by an external stimulus and will not be able to calm down by herself. Yet in a social context the interaction with a second person (without high sensitivity) will calm the HSP down, thus contributing to regulation. To obtain an adaptive model a Hebbian learning connection was integrated. During interaction with a second person this Hebbian learning link will become stronger, which makes it possible for a HSP to become independent after some time and be able to regulate upsetting external stimuli all by herself

Early Twentieth-Century Pianism in Music by Significant Russian and French Composers

In Western music history, the early twentieth century (1900-1945) was an age of fluctuation. A large number of distinctive stylistic trends, such as Impressionism, Neoclassicism, Mysticism, and Post-Romanticism, flourished in this era of change and growth. Despite these new trends, composers of the early twentieth century continued to exhibit common classical characteristics within the diversified new materials of each individual style. In addition, the composers thoroughly maximized the various effects derived from the piano itself with different approaches to touch, color, texture, and a fully broadened sound spectrum. The culmination of virtuosity and effectiveness in performance of the piano literature was thus greatly intensified and emphasized. Accordingly, works from this time period are generally marked by high technical demands, colorful melodies, rich harmonies, complex rhythms, and distinctive sonorities. During the early twentieth century, the main centers of musical innovation began to spread from Germany and Austria to other European countries such as France, Spain, Hungary, and Russia. In particular, the French and Russian styles of music during this period demonstrate numerous possibilities of pianistic sound through new technical and musical means. Among the abundant French and Russian repertoire of this era, the word “significant” allows us to narrow down the scope of the program to three dissertation recitals. Selecting significant composers in certain period is a subjective process; indeed, I have chosen composers considered either major or among the best-known, according to the accepted meaning. This dissertation was completed by performing selected works composed after 1900 by French composers Gabriel Fauré (1845-1924) Claude Debussy (1862-1918), and Maurice Ravel (1875-1937); and Russian composers Alexander Scriabin (1872-1915), Sergei Rachmaninoff (1873-1943), and Sergei Prokofiev (1891-1953) in three recitals at the Gildenhorn Recital Hall in the Clarice Smith Performing Arts Center of the University of Maryland. Recordings of the recitals may be accessed through the University of Maryland Library System

A war they don’t want to end (On the 70th anniversary of the Korean Armistice Agreement)

Almost 70 years ago, on July 27, 1953 the representatives of the warring parties of the DPRK and PRC – the Supreme Commander of the Korean People's Army (KPA), leader of the DPRK Kim Il Sung and the Commander of the Chinese People's Volunteer Army, General (one of the 10 marshals of the PRC) Peng Dehuai, along with the Commander-in-Chief of the UN Command, American General Mark W. Clark, signed the Korean Armistice Agreement. One of the main participants in the war, South Korea, represented by the President Rhee Syngman, refused to sign it, and since then Seoul has not changed its position on this document. The article examines the circumstances of the outbreak of the Korean War of 1950–1953, its causes, nature, results, as well as the reasons why it remains unfinished up to this day. The author draws historical parallels with other similar conflicts and suggests the prospects and possibilities of a legal end to the Korean War

Near-Limb Zeeman and Hanle Diagnostics

"Weak" magnetic-field diagnostics in faint objects near the bright solar disk are discussed in terms of the level of non-object signatures, in particular, of the stray light in telescopes. Calculated dependencies of the stray light caused by diffraction at the 0.5-, 1.6-, and 4-meter entrance aperture are presented. The requirements for micro-roughness of refractive and reflective primary optics are compared. Several methods for reducing the stray light (the Lyot coronagraphic technique, multiple stages of apodizing in the focal and exit pupil planes, apodizing in the entrance aperture plane with a special mask), and reducing the random and systematic errors are noted. An acceptable level of stray light in telescopes is estimated for the V-profile recording with a signal-to-noise ratio greater than three. Prospects for the limb chromosphere magnetic measurements are indicated.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure

Origin of Cosmic Magnetic Fields

We propose that the overlapping shock fronts from young supernova remnants produce a locally unsteady, but globally steady large scale spiral shock front in spiral galaxies, where star formation and therefore massive star explosions correlate geometrically with spiral structure. This global shock front with its steep gradients in temperature, pressure and associated electric fields will produce drifts, which in turn give rise to a strong sheet-like electric current, we propose. This sheet current then produces a large scale magnetic field, which is regular, and connected to the overall spiral structure. This rejuvenates the overall magnetic field continuously, and also allows to understand that there is a regular field at all in disk galaxies. This proposal connects the existence of magnetic fields to accretion in disks. We not yet address all the symmetries of the magnetic field here; the picture proposed here is not complete. X-ray observations may be able to test it already.Comment: 18 pages, no figures; to be published in Proc. Palermo Meeting Sept. 2002, Eds. N. G. Sanchez et al., The Early Universe and the Cosmic Microwave Background: Theory and Observation