Prediction, Retrodiction, and The Amount of Information Stored in the Present

We introduce an ambidextrous view of stochastic dynamical systems, comparing their forward-time and reverse-time representations and then integrating them into a single time-symmetric representation. The perspective is useful theoretically, computationally, and conceptually. Mathematically, we prove that the excess entropy--a familiar measure of organization in complex systems--is the mutual information not only between the past and future, but also between the predictive and retrodictive causal states. Practically, we exploit the connection between prediction and retrodiction to directly calculate the excess entropy. Conceptually, these lead one to discover new system invariants for stochastic dynamical systems: crypticity (information accessibility) and causal irreversibility. Ultimately, we introduce a time-symmetric representation that unifies all these quantities, compressing the two directional representations into one. The resulting compression offers a new conception of the amount of information stored in the present.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 1 table; http://users.cse.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/pratisp.ht

Information Accessibility and Cryptic Processes: Linear Combinations of Causal States

We show in detail how to determine the time-reversed representation of a stationary hidden stochastic process from linear combinations of its forward-time $\epsilon$-machine causal states. This also gives a check for the $k$-cryptic expansion recently introduced to explore the temporal range over which internal state information is spread.Comment: 6 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables; http://users.cse.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/iacplcocs.ht

Galactic Cosmic Rays from Supernova Remnants: II Shock Acceleration of Gas and Dust

This is the second paper (the first was astro-ph/9704267) of a series analysing the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) composition and origin. In this we present a quantitative model of GCR origin and acceleration based on the acceleration of a mixture of interstellar and/or circumstellar gas and dust by supernova remnant blast waves. We present results from a nonlinear shock model which includes (i) the direct acceleration of interstellar gas-phase ions, (ii) a simplified model for the direct acceleration of weakly charged dust grains to energies of order 100keV/amu simultaneously with the gas ions, (iii) frictional energy losses of the grains colliding with the gas, (iv) sputtering of ions of refractory elements from the accelerated grains and (v) the further shock acceleration of the sputtered ions to cosmic ray energies. The calculated GCR composition and spectra are in good agreement with observations.Comment: to appear in ApJ, 51 pages, LaTeX with AAS macros, 9 postscript figures, also available from ftp://wonka.physics.ncsu.edu/pub/elliso

Intersection Information based on Common Randomness

The introduction of the partial information decomposition generated a flurry of proposals for defining an intersection information that quantifies how much of "the same information" two or more random variables specify about a target random variable. As of yet, none is wholly satisfactory. A palatable measure of intersection information would provide a principled way to quantify slippery concepts, such as synergy. Here, we introduce an intersection information measure based on the G\'acs-K\"orner common random variable that is the first to satisfy the coveted target monotonicity property. Our measure is imperfect, too, and we suggest directions for improvement.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figure

Social research for a multiethnic population: do the research ethics and standards guidelines of UK Learned Societies address this challenge?

There is increasing recognition in the UK that social science research should generate an evidence base that reflects the ethnic diversity of the population and informs positive developments in public policy and programmes for all. However, describing and understanding ethnic diversity, and associated disadvantage, is far from straightforward. In practice, the ethical and scientific arguments around whether and how to incorporate ethnicity into policy-relevant social research are complex and contentious. In particular, untheorised or insensitive inclusion of data on ethnic 'groups' can have negative consequences. The present investigation begins to explore the extent to which social scientists have access to advice and guidance in this area of research. Specifically, the paper examines how ethnic diversity is explicitly or implicitly considered within the research ethics and scientific standard guidance provided by UK social science Learned Societies to their members. The review found little in the way of explicit attention to ethnic diversity in the guidance documents, but nevertheless identified a number of pertinent themes. The paper compiles and extrapolates these themes to present a tentative set of principles for social scientists to debate and further develop