Predictors of complications after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: a prognostic model for early discharge

Background: Several studies have evaluated predictors for complications of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), but their relative importance is unknown. In addition, currently used blood tests to detect post-ERCP pancreatitis are inconsistent. The aim of this study was to determine predictors of post-ERCP complications that could discriminate between patients at highest and lowest risk of post-ERCP complications and to develop a model that is able to identify patients that can safely be discharged shortly after ERCP. Methods: In a single-center, retrospective analysis over the period 2002-2007, predictors of post-ERCP complications were evaluated in a multivariable analysis and compared with those identified from a literature review. A prognostic model was developed based on these risk factors, which was further evaluated in a prospective patient population. Results: From our retrospective analysis and literature review, we selected the eight most important risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis and cholangitis. In the prognostic model, the risk factors (precut) sphincterotomy, sphincter of Oddi dysfunction, younger age, female gender, history of pancreatitis, p