Ranking hospitals based on preventable hospital death rates:a systematic review with implications for both direct measurement and indirect measurement through standardized mortality rates

Objectives There is interest in monitoring avoidable or preventable deaths measured directly or indirectly through standardized mortality rates (SMRs). We reviewed studies that use implicit case note reviews to estimate the range of preventable death rates observed, the measurement characteristics of those estimates, and the measurement procedures used to generate them. We comment on the implications for monitoring SMRs and illustrate a way to calculate the number of reviews needed to establish a reliable estimate of preventability of one death or the hospital preventable death rate. Design Systematic review of the literature supplemented by re-analysis of authors previously published and un-published data and measurement design calculations. Data source Searches in PubMed, MEDLINE (OvidSP) and Web of Knowledge in June 2012, updated December 2017. Eligibility criteria Studies of hospital-wide admissions from general and acute medical wards where preventable deaths rates are provided or can be estimate and which can provide inter- observer variations. Results Twenty-four studies were included from 1983-2017. Recent larger studies suggest consistently low rates of preventable deaths (3.0-6.5% since 2012). Reliability of a single review for distinguishing between individual cases with regard to the preventability of death had a Kappa rate of 0.27-0.50 for deaths and 0.24-0.76 for adverse events. A Kappa of 0.35 would require an average of 8-17 reviews of a single case to be precise enough to have confidence about high stakes decisions to change care procedures or impose sanctions within a hospital as a result. No study estimated the variation in preventable deaths across hospitals, although we were able to re-analyse one study to obtain an estimate. Based on this estimate, 200-300 total case-note reviews per hospital could be required to reliably distinguish between hospitals. The studies display considerable heterogeneity: 13/24 studies defined preventable with a threshold of ≥4 in a six-category Likert scale; 11/24 involved a two-stage screening process with nurses at the first stage and physicians at the second. Fifteen studies provided expert clinical review support for reviewer disagreements, advice, or quality control. A ‘generalist/internist’ was the modal physician specialty for reviewers and they received 1-3 days of generic tools orientation and case-note review practice. Methods did not consider the influence of human or environmental factors. Conclusions The literature provides limited information about the measurement characteristics of preventable deaths that suggests substantial numbers of reviews may be needed to create reliable estimates of preventable deaths at the individual or hospital level. Any operational program would require population specific estimates of reliability. Preventable death rates are low, which is likely to make it difficult to use SMRs based on all deaths to validly profile hospitals. The literature provides little information to guide improvements in the measurement procedures. Systematic review registration The systematic review was conceived prior to PROSPERO, and so has not been registered

The Cost-Effectiveness of Early Access to HIV Services and Starting cART in the UK 1996–2008

To calculate use, cost and cost-effectiveness of people living with HIV (PLHIV) starting routine treatment and care before starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and PLHIV starting first-line 2NRTIs+NNRTI or 2NRTIs+PI(boosted), comparing PLHIV with CD4≤200 cells/mm3 and CD4>200 cells/mm3. Few studies have calculated the use, cost and cost-effectiveness of routine treatment and care before starting cART and starting cART above and below CD4 200 cells/mm3.Use, costs and cost-effectiveness were calculated for PLHIV in routine pre-cART and starting first-line cART, comparing CD4≤200 cells/mm3 with CD4>200 cells/mm3 (2008 UK prices).cART naïve patients CD4≤200 cells/mm3 had an annual cost of £6,407 (95%CI £6,382 to £6,425) PPY compared with £2,758 (95%CI £2,752 to £2,761) PPY for those with CD4>200 cells/mm3; cost per life year gained of pre-cART treatment and care for those with CD4>200 cells/mm3 was £1,776 (cost-saving to £2,752). Annual cost for starting 2NRTIs+NNRTI or 2NRTIs+PI(boosted) with CD4≤200 cells/mm3 was £12,812 (95%CI £12,685-£12,937) compared with £10,478 (95%CI £10,376-£10,581) for PLHIV with CD4>200 cells/mm3. Cost per additional life-year gained on first-line therapy for those with CD4>200 cells/mm3 was £4639 (£3,967 to £2,960).PLHIV starting to use HIV services before CD4≤200 cells/mm3 is cost-effective and enables them to be monitored so they start cART with a CD4>200 cells/mm3, which results in better outcomes and is cost-effective. However, 25% of PLHIV accessing services continue to present with CD4≤200 cells/mm3. This highlights the need to investigate the cost-effectiveness of testing and early treatment programs for key populations in the UK

An Update on Cancer Cluster Activities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) continues to be aware of the need for response to public concern as well as to state and local agency concern about cancer clusters. In 1990 the CDC published the “Guidelines for Investigating Clusters of Health Events,” in which a four-stage process was presented. This document has provided a framework that most state health departments have adopted, with modifications pertaining to their specific situations, available resources, and philosophy concerning disease clusters. The purpose of this present article is not to revise the CDC guidelines; they retain their original usefulness and validity. However, in the past 15 years, multiple cluster studies as well as scientific and technologic developments have affected cluster science and response (improvements in cancer registries, a federal initiative in environmental public health tracking, refinement of biomarker technology, cluster identification using geographic information systems software, and the emergence of the Internet). Thus, we offer an addendum for use with the original document. Currently, to address both the needs of state health departments as well as public concern, the CDC now a) provides a centralized, coordinated response system for cancer cluster inquiries, b) supports an electronic cancer cluster listserver, c) maintains an informative web page, and d) provides support to states, ranging from laboratory analysis to epidemiologic assistance and expertise. Response to cancer clusters is appropriate public health action, and the CDC will continue to provide assistance, facilitate communication among states, and foster the development of new approaches in cluster science

Integrated multiple mediation analysis: A robustness–specificity trade-off in causal structure

Recent methodological developments in causal mediation analysis have addressed several issues regarding multiple mediators. However, these developed methods differ in their definitions of causal parameters, assumptions for identification, and interpretations of causal effects, making it unclear which method ought to be selected when investigating a given causal effect. Thus, in this study, we construct an integrated framework, which unifies all existing methodologies, as a standard for mediation analysis with multiple mediators. To clarify the relationship between existing methods, we propose four strategies for effect decomposition: two-way, partially forward, partially backward, and complete decompositions. This study reveals how the direct and indirect effects of each strategy are explicitly and correctly interpreted as path-specific effects under different causal mediation structures. In the integrated framework, we further verify the utility of the interventional analogues of direct and indirect effects, especially when natural direct and indirect effects cannot be identified or when cross-world exchangeability is invalid. Consequently, this study yields a robustness–specificity trade-off in the choice of strategies. Inverse probability weighting is considered for estimation. The four strategies are further applied to a simulation study for performance evaluation and for analyzing the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer data set from Taiwan to investigate the causal effect of hepatitis C virus infection on mortality

Immunostimulation and Immunoinhibition of Premalignant Lesions

BACKGROUND: The immune reaction may be either stimulatory or inhibitory to tumor growth, depending upon the local ratio of immune reactants to tumor cells. HYPOTHESIS: A tumor-stimulatory immune response may be essential for survival of a neoplasm in vivo and for the biological progression from a premalignant lesion to a malignancy. Neither a positive nor a negative correlation between the magnitude of an immune-cell infiltrate and a cancer's prognosis can reveal whether the infiltrate was stimulating or inhibiting to the tumor's growth unless the position on the nonlinear curve that relates tumor growth to the magnitude of the immune reaction is known. DISCUSSION: This hypothesis is discussed in relation to the development of human malignant melanomas and colorectal cancers

Protecting eyewitness evidence: Examining the efficacy of a self-administered interview tool

Given the crucial role of eyewitness evidence, statements should be obtained as soon as possible after an incident. This is not always achieved due to demands on police resources. Two studies trace the development of a new tool, the Self-Administered Interview (SAI), designed to elicit a comprehensive initial statement. In Study 1, SAI participants reported more correct details than participants who provided a free recall account, and performed at the same level as participants given a Cognitive Interview. In Study 2, participants viewed a simulated crime and half recorded their statement using the SAI. After a delay of 1 week, all participants completed a free recall test. SAI participants recalled more correct details in the delayed recall task than control participants

The Molecular Clockwork of the Fire Ant Solenopsis invicta

This is an open-access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication

Male circumcision and penile cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: We systematically reviewed the evidence of an association between male circumcision and penile cancer. METHODS: Databases were searched using keywords and text terms for the epidemiology of penile cancer. Random effects meta-analyses were used to calculate summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We identified eight papers which evaluated the association of circumcision with penile cancer, of which seven were case-control studies. There was a strong protective effect of childhood/adolescent circumcision on invasive penile cancer (OR = 0.33; 95% CI 0.13-0.83; 3 studies). In two studies, the protective effect of childhood/adolescent circumcision on invasive cancer no longer persisted when analyses were restricted to boys with no history of phimosis. In contrast, there was some evidence that circumcision in adulthood was associated with an increased risk of invasive penile cancer (summary OR = 2.71; 95% CI 0.93-7.94; 3 studies). There was little evidence for an association of penile intra-epithelial neoplasia and in situ penile cancer with circumcision performed at any age. CONCLUSIONS: Men circumcised in childhood/adolescence are at substantially reduced risk of invasive penile cancer, and this effect could be mediated partly through an effect on phimosis. Expansion of circumcision services in sub-Saharan Africa as an HIV prevention strategy may additionally reduce penile cancer risk

Negative Feedback Regulation following Administration of Chronic Exogenous Corticosterone

Administration of exogenous glucocorticoids is known to suppress the HPA axis and has been reported to occupy brain glucocorticoid receptors, eventually leading to down-regulation. To determine the effects of chronic corticosterone administration on HPA axis function, corticosterone was administered as both 25% and 50% corticosteronekholesterol pellets. Rats were sacrificed 6 days after corticosterone pellet implantation. The 25% corticosterone pellets produced a small increase in morning corticosterone concentrations but no change in evening ACTH or corticosterone secretion. The 50% corticosterone pellets produced constant corticosterone concentrations of 5–6 pg/dl, with no circadian variation in corticosterone, indicating inhibition of evening ACTH and corticosterone secretion. The 25% corticosterone pellets produced no significant decrease in thymus weight or in adrenal weight; 50% corticosterone pellets produced significant decreases in thymus weight and adrenal weight. Neither 25% nor 50% corticosterone pellets produced significant decreases in GR in hippocampus and cortex. The 50% corticosterone pellets treatment resulted in a decrease in anterior pituitary POMC mRNA levels, a decrease in baseline and oCRH stimulated ACTH release from the anterior pituitary, and a near complete inhibition of the AM and PM response to restraint stress. These results suggest that: 1) the HPA axis was able to adjust to the small increase in glucocorticoids produced by the 25% cort pellets with minimal disturbances in function and 2) 50% corticosterone pellets exert a significant inhibitory effect on stress and diurnal ACTH secretion which appears to be exerted at the pituitary as well as possible inhibitory effects on brain.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72571/1/j.1365-2826.1995.tb00665.x.pd