Incorporating ‘recruitment’ in matrix projection models : estimation, parameters, and the influence of model structure

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Ornithology 152, Suppl.2 (2012):585-595, doi:10.1007/s10336-010-0573-1.Advances in the estimation of population parameters using encounter data from marked individuals have made it possible to include estimates of the probability of recruitment in population projection models. However, the projected growth rate of the population, and the sensitivity of projected growth to changes in recruitment, can vary significantly depending upon both the structural form of the model and how recruitment is parameterized. We show that the common practices of (1) collapsing some age classes into a single, terminal ‘aggregated’ age-class, and (2) parameterizing recruitment using the proportion of recruited individuals (breeders) in a given age-class may confound analysis of age-based (Leslie) matrix projection models in some instances, relative to state-based projection models where recruited and pre-recruited individuals are treated as separate states. Failing to account for these differences can lead to misinterpretation of the relative role of recruitment in the dynamics of an age-structured population.We show that such problems can be avoided, either by structural changes to the terminal aggregated age-class in age-based models, or by using using a state-based model instead. Since all the metrics of general interest from a classical age-based matrix models are readily derived from a state-based model equivalent, this suggests there may be little reason to use the classical age-based approach in situations where recruitment is a parameter of interest

Immunogenicity Is Not Improved by Increased Antigen Dose or Booster Dosing of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in a Randomized Trial of HIV Infected Adults

The risk of poor vaccine immunogenicity and more severe influenza disease in HIV necessitate strategies to improve vaccine efficacy.A randomized, multi-centered, controlled, vaccine trial with three parallel groups was conducted at 12 CIHR Canadian HIV Trials Network sites. Three dosing strategies were used in HIV infected adults (18 to 60 years): two standard doses over 28 days, two double doses over 28 days and a single standard dose of influenza vaccine, administered prior to the 2008 influenza season. A trivalent killed split non-adjuvanted influenza vaccine (Fluviral™) was used. Serum hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) activity for the three influenza strains in the vaccine was measured to assess immunogenicity.297 of 298 participants received at least one injection. Baseline CD4 (median 470 cells/µL) and HIV RNA (76% of patients with viral load <50 copies/mL) were similar between groups. 89% were on HAART. The overall immunogenicity of influenza vaccine across time points and the three influenza strains assessed was poor (Range HAI ≥ 40 =  31-58%). Double dose plus double dose booster slightly increased the proportion achieving HAI titre doubling from baseline for A/Brisbane and B/Florida at weeks 4, 8 and 20 compared to standard vaccine dose. Increased immunogenicity with increased antigen dose and booster dosing was most apparent in participants with unsuppressed HIV RNA at baseline. None of 8 serious adverse events were thought to be immunization-related.Even with increased antigen dose and booster dosing, non-adjuvanted influenza vaccine immunogenicity is poor in HIV infected individuals. Alternative influenza vaccines are required in this hyporesponsive population.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00764998

Influenza vaccination for immunocompromised patients: systematic review and meta-analysis from a public health policy perspective.

Immunocompromised patients are vulnerable to severe or complicated influenza infection. Vaccination is widely recommended for this group. This systematic review and meta-analysis assesses influenza vaccination for immunocompromised patients in terms of preventing influenza-like illness and laboratory confirmed influenza, serological response and adverse events

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AIM: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin. RESULTS: Overall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P < 0.001). After adjustment, delay was not associated with a lower rate of complete resection (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.90-1.55, P = 0.224), which was consistent in elective patients only (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.27, P = 0.672). Longer delays were not associated with poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION: One in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease

An observational study identifying highly tuberculosis-exposed, HIV-1-positive but persistently TB, tuberculin and IGRA negative persons with M. tuberculosis specific antibodies in Cape Town, South Africa

Background Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection is inferred from positive results of T-cell immune conversion assays measuring Mtb-specific interferon gamma production or tuberculin skin test (TST) reactivity. Certain exposed individuals do not display T-cell immune conversion in these assays and do not develop TB. Here we report a hitherto unknown form of this phenotype: HIV-1-positive persistently TB, tuberculin and IGRA negative (HITTIN). Methods A community-based case-control design was used to systematically screen and identify adults living with HIV (HIV+), aged 35–60 years, who met stringent study criteria, and then longitudinally followed up for repeat IGRA and TST testing. Participants had no history of TB despite living in TB hyper-endemic environments in Cape Town, South Africa with a provincial incidence of 681/100,000. Mtb-specific antibodies were measured using ELISA and Luminex. Findings We identified 48/286 (17%) individuals who tested persistently negative for Mtb-specific T-cell immunoreactivity (three negative Quantiferon results and one TST = 0mm) over 206±154 days on average. Of these, 97·2% had documented CD4 counts<200 prior to antiretroviral therapy (ART). They had received ART for 7·0±3·0 years with a latest CD4 count of 505·8±191·4 cells/mm3. All HITTIN sent for further antibody testing (n=38) displayed Mtb-specific antibody titres. Interpretation Immune reconstituted HIV+ persons can be persistently non-immunoreactive to TST and interferon-γ T-cell responses to Mtb, yet develop species-specific antibody responses. Exposure is evidenced by Mtb-specific antibody titres. Our identification of HIV+ individuals displaying a persisting lack of response to TST and IGRA T-cell immune conversion paves the way for future studies to investigate this phenotype in the context of HIV-infection that so far have received only scant attention