Modelling alternative strategies for delivering hepatitis B vaccine in prisons : the impact on the vaccination coverage of the injecting drug user population

Since 2001 hepatitis B vaccination has been offered to prisoners on reception into prisons in England and Wales. However, short campaigns of vaccinating the entire population of individual prisons have achieved high vaccination coverage for limited periods, suggesting that short campaigns may be a preferable way of vaccinating prisoners. A model is used that describes the flow of prisoners through prisons stratified by injecting status to compare a range of vaccination scenarios that describe vaccination on prison reception or via regular short campaigns. Model results suggest that vaccinating on prison reception can capture a greater proportion of the injecting drug user (IDU) population than the comparable campaign scenarios (63% vs. 55 . 6% respectively). Vaccination on prison reception is also more efficient at capturing IDUs for vaccination than vaccination via a campaign, although vaccination via campaigns may have a role with some infections for overall control

Characterizing the transmission potential of zoonotic infections from minor outbreaks.

The transmission potential of a novel infection depends on both the inherent transmissibility of a pathogen, and the level of susceptibility in the host population. However, distinguishing between these pathogen- and population-specific properties typically requires detailed serological studies, which are rarely available in the early stages of an outbreak. Using a simple transmission model that incorporates age-stratified social mixing patterns, we present a novel method for characterizing the transmission potential of subcritical infections, which have effective reproduction number R<1, from readily available data on the size of outbreaks. We show that the model can identify the extent to which outbreaks are driven by inherent pathogen transmissibility and pre-existing population immunity, and can generate unbiased estimates of the effective reproduction number. Applying the method to real-life infections, we obtained accurate estimates for the degree of age-specific immunity against monkeypox, influenza A(H5N1) and A(H7N9), and refined existing estimates of the reproduction number. Our results also suggest minimal pre-existing immunity to MERS-CoV in humans. The approach we describe can therefore provide crucial information about novel infections before serological surveys and other detailed analyses are available. The methods would also be applicable to data stratified by factors such as profession or location, which would make it possible to measure the transmission potential of emerging infections in a wide range of settings

Modeling the radial abundance distribution of the transition galaxy ngc 1313

NGC 1313 is the most massive disk galaxy showing a flat radial abundance distribution in its interstellar gas, a behavior generally observed in magellanic and irregular galaxies. We have attempted to reproduce this flat abundance distribution using a multiphase chemical evolution model, which has been previously used sucessfully to depict other spiral galaxies along the Hubble morphological sequence. We found that it is not possible to reproduce the flat radial abundance distribution in NGC 1313, and at the same time, be consistent with observed radial distributions of other key parameters such the surface gas density and star formation profiles. We conclude that a more complicated galactic evolution model including radial flows, and possibly mass loss due to supernova explosions and winds, is necessary to explain the apparent chemical uniformity of the disk of NGC 1313Comment: 14 paginas, 4 figures, to be published in ApJ, apri

Modelling the hepatitis B vaccination programme in prisons

A vaccination programme offering hepatitis B (HBV) vaccine at reception into prison has been introduced into selected prisons in England and Wales. Over the coming years it is anticipated this vaccination programme will be extended. A model has been developed to assess the potential impact of the programme on the vaccination coverage of prisoners, ex-prisoners, and injecting drug users (IDUs). Under a range of coverage scenarios, the model predicts the change over time in the vaccination status of new entrants to prison, current prisoners and IDUs in the community. The model predicts that at baseline in 2012 57% of the IDU population will be vaccinated with up to 72% being vaccinated depending on the vaccination scenario implemented. These results are sensitive to the size of the IDU population in England and Wales and the average time served by an IDU during each prison visit. IDUs that do not receive HBV vaccine in the community are at increased risk from HBV infection. The HBV vaccination programme in prisons is an effective way of vaccinating this hard-to-reach population although vaccination coverage on prison reception must be increased to achieve this

Incidence and risk factors for influenza-like-illness in the UK: online surveillance using Flusurvey.

BACKGROUND: Influenza and Influenza-like-illness (ILI) represents a substantial public health problem, but it is difficult to measure the overall burden as many cases do not access health care. Community cohorts have the advantage of not requiring individuals to present at hospitals and surgeries and therefore can potentially monitor a wider variety of cases. This study reports on the incidence and risk factors for ILI in the UK as measured using Flusurvey, an internet-based open community cohort. METHODS: Upon initial online registration participants were asked background characteristics, and every week were asked to complete a symptoms survey. We compared the representativeness of our sample to the overall population. We used two case definitions of ILI, which differed in whether fever/chills was essential. We calculated ILI incidence week by week throughout the season, and investigated risk factors associated with ever reporting ILI over the course of the season. Risk factor analysis was conducted using binomial regression. RESULTS: 5943 participants joined the survey, and 4532 completed the symptoms survey at least twice. Participants who filled in symptoms surveys at least twice filled in a median of nine symptoms surveys over the course of the study. 46.1% of participants reported at least one episode of ILI, and 6.0% of all reports were positive for ILI. Females had slightly higher incidence, and individuals over 65 had the lowest incidence. Incidence peaked just before Christmas and declined dramatically during school holidays. Multivariate regression showed that, for both definitions of ILI considered, being female, unvaccinated, having underlying health issues, having contact with children, being aged between 35 and 64, and being a smoker were associated with the highest risk of reporting an ILI. The use of public transport was not associated with an increased risk of ILI. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that internet based surveillance can be used to measure ILI and understand risk factors. Vaccination is shown to be linked to a reduced risk of reporting ILI. Taking public transport does not increase the risk of reporting ILI. Flusurvey and other participatory surveillance techniques can be used to provide reliable information to policy makers in nearly real-time

Epidemiological patterns of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in highly endemic areas

This paper uses meta-analysis of published data and a deterministic mathematical model of hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission to describe the patterns of HBV infection in high endemicity areas. We describe the association between the prevalence of carriers and a simple measure of the rate of infection, the age at which half the population have been infected (A50), and assess the contribution of horizontal and perinatal transmission to this association. We found that the two main hyper-endemic areas of sub-Saharan Africa and east Asia have similar prevalences of carriers and values of A50, and that there is a negative nonlinear relationship between A50 and the prevalence of carriers in high endemicity areas (Spearman's Rank, P = 0·0086). We quantified the risk of perinatal transmission and the age-dependent rate of infection to allow a comparison between the main hyper-endemic areas. East Asia was found to have higher prevalences of HBeAg positive mothers and a greater risk of perinatal transmission from HBeAg positive mothers than sub-Saharan Africa, though the differences were not statistically significant. However, the two areas have similar magnitudes and age-dependent rates of horizontal transmission. Results of a simple compartmental model suggest that similar rates of horizontal transmission are sufficient to generate the similar patterns between A50 and the prevalences of carriers. Interrupting horizontal transmission by mass immunization is expected to have a significant, nonlinear impact on the rate of acquisition of new carriers

Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model.

Real-time forecasts of infectious diseases can help public health planning, especially during outbreaks. If forecasts are generated from mechanistic models, they can be further used to target resources or to compare the impact of possible interventions. However, paremeterising such models is often difficult in real time, when information on behavioural changes, interventions and routes of transmission are not readily available. Here, we present a semi-mechanistic model of infectious disease dynamics that was used in real time during the 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic, and show fits to a Ebola Forecasting Challenge conducted in late 2015 with simulated data mimicking the true epidemic. We assess the performance of the model in different situations and identify strengths and shortcomings of our approach. Models such as the one presented here which combine the power of mechanistic models with the flexibility to include uncertainty about the precise outbreak dynamics may be an important tool in combating future outbreaks