Backcasting Formula-Based Federal Order Class Prices

In January 2000, all federal milk marketing orders began using a common set of product price formulas to establish milk component values and related Class prices. For roughly forty years before then, order Class prices were tied to the price paid for milk by unregulated manufacturing plants in Minnesota and Wisconsin. This paper addresses the question of how actual Class milk prices compare with prices that would have been generated by current product price formulas. A consistent set of product prices is derived and used to impute monthly Class prices from January 1991 to March 2003, when current formulas became effective. Between 1991 and 1995, formulas yielded higher Class I prices and lower Class II and Class III prices than prices actually experienced. Differences between actual and imputed prices narrowed in later years. A measure of minimum producer blend prices showed that, in the 13 years prior to adoption of the current product price formulas, average actual and imputed prices were almost identical.

Cranberry Price Forecasting

In 2000, rapidly-falling grower prices for cranberries led the cranberry industry to seriously consider invoking its federal marketing order for the first time since the early 1970s. The Cranberry Marketing Order permits volume control through producer allotments (grower delivery quotas) or handler withholding (processor set-asides). Possible deployment of volume controls motivated interest in the probable price effects, in particular, what level of production (given inventories and projected imports) would yield an acceptable grower price. As the public member of the Cranberry Marketing Committee and as the Committee's ad hoc staff economist, I agreed to develop a price forecasting model to shed light on this question.

Forecasting Class III and Class IV Milk Prices

Despite the growing volume, trading in milk remains small in comparison to grain and livestock. Part of the reason for limited trading volume is that dairy futures trading is very new compared to grain and livestock trading. There is less experience with risk management strategies and a much smaller research base with respect to basis relationships and price forecasting. Dairy farmers are still "feeling their way." The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic, user-friendly method for forecasting Class III and Class IV prices. The user is allowed to vary regional milk production and stocks of manufactured dairy products to evaluate the sensitivity of point estimates. A sequential process is developed to predict Class III milk prices up to 12 months in advance using widely-published outlook data as predictor variables. The first stage involves deriving monthly U.S. milk supply forecasts using trend extrapolations for regional milk cow numbers and milk production per cow. Users may modify trend values based on personal expectations. In the second stage, the projected monthly U.S. milk supply is allocated to Class III and Class IV manufactured products (butter, cheddar cheese, nonfat dry milk, and dry whey). Underlying these forecasts is a set of econometric relationships that estimate production of the manufactured products based on total milk production and other variables.

Review of standards for biodegradable plastic bags.

The Single Use Carrier Bags Charges (England) Order 2015 requires retailers to charge at least 5p for each single use carrier bag, except where exempted. Under section 18 of that order, the Secretary of State must— (a) complete a review of industry standards for the biodegradability of lightweight plastic material; and (b) lay a copy of a report before Parliament setting out the conclusions of the review, in particular— (i) whether it appears to the Secretary of State that there exists an industry standard appropriate for the purposes of an exclusion from the obligations specified in Part 2 on grounds of biodegradability; and (ii) if so, how that exclusion would be implemented. That review has now been completed. It found that there are a number of standards for plastic bag biodegradability. We will need to conduct further work before any of these could be used to exempt certain types of carrier bags on grounds of biodegradability. By the end of May 2016 retailers are required to report the number of bags that have been supplied, and the uses to which the proceeds of the charge have been put, after reasonable costs are deducted. The Government will use that opportunity to consider the early impacts of the charge. The Government will continue to consider the technical specification for a genuinely biodegradable bag, and will at that point further report on how an exemption for such a biodegradable bag can be implemented

Junior Design: Automatic Page Turner

This project details the design and build process of an automatic pageturner. The primary goal of this project is to design and manufacture a product that not only has an efficient operation, but is easy to use for people with disabilities and minimal assistance. The device will consist of a mechanical structure to support the book, an electrical system to facilitate the turning of pages in both directions, and additional features to support comfort and readability, such as LED reading lights

A Community Ice Sheet Model for Sea Level Prediction

Summary of a workshop that was held at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, 18-20 August 2008, whose primary goal was to create a detailed plan for developing, testing, and implementing a Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) to aid in predicting sea level rise

A roadmap for pyrodiversity science

Abstract: Background: Contemporary and projected shifts in global fire regimes highlight the importance of understanding how fire affects ecosystem function and biodiversity across taxa and geographies. Pyrodiversity, or heterogeneity in fire history, is often an important driver of biodiversity, though it has been largely overlooked until relatively recently. In this paper, we synthesise previous research to develop a theoretical framework on pyrodiversity–biodiversity relationships and propose future research and conservation management directions. Theoretical Framework: Pyrodiversity may affect biodiversity by diversifying available ecological niches, stabilising community networks and/or supporting diverse species pools available for post‐fire colonisation. Further, pyrodiversity's effects on biodiversity vary across different spatial, temporal and organismal scales depending on the mobility and other life history traits of the organisms in question and may be mediated by regional eco‐evolutionary factors such as historical fire regimes. Developing a generalisable understanding of pyrodiversity effects on biodiversity has been challenging, in part because pyrodiversity can be quantified in various ways. Applying the Pyrodiversity Concept: Exclusion of Indigenous fire stewardship, fire suppression, increased unplanned ignitions and climate change have led to dramatic shifts in fire regimes globally. Such shifts include departures from historic levels of pyrodiversity and add to existing challenges to biodiversity conservation in fire‐prone landscapes. Managers navigating these challenges can be aided by targeted research into observed contemporary pyrodiversity–biodiversity relationships as well as knowledge of historical reference conditions informed by both Indigenous and local ecological knowledge and western science. Future Research Directions: Several promising avenues exist for the advancement of pyrodiversity science to further both theoretical and practical goals. These lines of investigation include but are not limited to (1) testing the increasing variety of pyrodiversity metrics and analytical approaches; (2) assessing the spatial and temporal scale‐dependence of pyrodiversity's influence; (3) reconstructing historical pyrodiversity patterns and developing methods for predicting and/or promoting future pyrodiversity; and (4) expanding the focus of pyrodiversity science beyond biodiversity to better understand its influence on ecosystem function and processes more broadly

Stories of hope created together: A pilot, school-based workshop for sharing eco-emotions and creating an actively hopeful vision of the future

The climate and ecological crises challenge all communities across the world, with the greatest impact upon the most vulnerable and the youngest. There are multiple impacts on mental health, including the psychological burdens that arise with increasing awareness of the loss, threat and injustice caused by these crises. Large numbers of young people globally are understandably concerned and distressed about these crises, whilst simultaneously reporting that their concerns are regularly dismissed and ignored, particularly by those in power. This can increase feelings of isolation and distress, particularly if they have no recourse to effect change. This pilot project sought to explore how a schools-based, co-created workshop for school pupils aged 16 to 18 years could use a community-oriented space to explore their eco-emotions, address feelings of isolation and engender a sense of realistic, active hope, using storytelling and images of possible futures. A 3-h workshop for delivery in schools was co-designed with young people, researchers, educators and clinicians, using principles of Youth Participatory Action Research (YPAR). Six school pupils aged 16–18 years consented and four completed the workshop, which involved a range of group-based activities to explore their understanding of the climate and ecological crises, support emotional expression related to these and engage in storytelling about hopeful and realistic futures. A live illustrator in attendance created shared images of the participants’ fears and hopes. The workshop was recorded, transcribed and analysed using Thematic Analysis and sentiment analysis. Feedback was sought from participants at 1 and 4 weeks after completion and analysed using content analysis. Results indicated that participants reported a range of painful and positive emotions about the crises. They highly valued having space to express their experience alongside others. Storytelling and creativity appeared to help them articulate their feelings and hopes for the future, and gave them greater motivation and confidence in talking to others about these topics. This innovative pilot study suggests that a school-based youth participatory group could offer a novel way of helping young people to engage more with the climate and ecological crises in a way that supports their wellbeing. It provides strong support for future, larger-scale projects in this area

The Grizzly, February 2, 1993

Cowboys Tame Buffalo, 52-17 • Upsilon Phi Delta Approved • AIDS Quilt • Al Eaton\u27s We Are the Dream • Day For a King • Power Plays • Bernie Bernie Headflap Wins Battle of the Bands • Lorelei at Chateau Granieri • Ice Skating Fun • The Case of the Disappearing Sevs (Or: Why Collegeville\u27s Most Famous Convenient Mart Upped & Left) • Senior Profile: Chris Kakacek • The New Zack\u27s: Why Hike to WaWa? • What\u27s Up in Wellness • Character was an Issue, Again • The Importance of Effort and A Dream • UC Baseball Preview \u2793 • Gymnasts Hoping For Powerful Season • Lady Bears Make Playoffs • Swimmers Working Hard • Football Awards Banquet Held • Wrestlers Continue Excellence • Men\u27s Basketball Split Twohttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1308/thumbnail.jp