Diurnal seismicity cycle linked to subsurface melting on an ice shelf

ABSTRACTSeismograms acquired on the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica, during an Austral summer melt season (November 2016–January 2017) reveal a diurnal cycle of seismicity, consisting of hundreds of thousands of small ice quakes limited to a 6–12 hour period during the evening, in an area where there is substantial subsurface melting. This cycle is explained by thermally induced bending and fracture of a frozen surface superimposed on a subsurface slush/water layer that is supported by solar radiation penetration and absorption. A simple, one-dimensional model of heat transfer driven by observed surface air temperature and shortwave absorption reproduces the presence and absence (as daily weather dictated) of the observed diurnal seismicity cycle. Seismic event statistics comparing event occurrence with amplitude suggest that the events are generated in a fractured medium featuring relatively low stresses, as is consistent with a frozen surface superimposed on subsurface slush. Waveforms of the icequakes are consistent with hydroacoustic phases at frequency ${\bf \gt} \bf 75\,{\bf Hz}$ and flexural-gravity waves at frequency $\bf {\bf \lt}25\,{\bf Hz}$. Our results suggest that seismic observation may prove useful in monitoring subsurface melting in a manner that complements other ground-based methods as well as remote sensing.</jats:p

Insights on the source of the 28 September 2018 Sulawesi tsunami, Indonesia based on spectral analyses and numerical simulations

The 28 September 2018 Sulawesi tsunami has been a puzzle because extreme deadly tsunami waves were generated following an Mw 7.5 strike-slip earthquake, while such earthquakes are not usually considered to produce large tsunamis. Here, we obtained, processed and analyzed two sea level records of the tsunami in the near-field (Pantoloan located inside the Palu Bay) and far-field (Mamuju located outside the Palu Bay) and conducted numerical simulations to shed light on the tsunami source. The two tide gauges recorded maximum tsunami trough-to-crest heights of 380 and 24 cm, respectively, with respective dominating wave periods of 3.6-4.4 and 10 min, and respective high-energy wave duration of 5.5 and [14 h. The two observed waveforms were significantly different with wave amplitude and period ratios of *16 and *3, respectively. We infer tsunamigenic source dimen19 sions of 3.4–4.1 km and 32.5 km, for inside and outside of the Palu Bay, respectively. Our numerical simulations fairly well repro21 duced both tsunami observations in Pantoloan and Mamuju; except for the arrival time in Mamuju. However, it was incapable of reproducing the maximum reported coastal amplitudes of 6–11 m. It is possible that these two sources are different parts of the same tectonic source. A bay oscillation mode of *85 min was revealed for the Palu Bay through numerical modeling. Actual sea surface disturbances and landslide-generated waves were captured by two video recordings from inside the Palu Bay shortly after the earthquake. It is possible that a large submarine landslide contributed to and intensified the Sulawesi tsunami. We identify the southern part of the Palu Bay, around the latitude of -0.82o S, as the most likely location of a potential landslide based on our backward tsunami ray tracing analysis. However, marine geological data from the Palu Bay are required to confirm such hypothesis

Coupled, Physics-Based Modeling Reveals Earthquake Displacements are Critical to the 2018 Palu, Sulawesi Tsunami

The September 2018, Mw 7.5 Sulawesi earthquake occurring on the Palu-Koro strike-slip fault system was followed by an unexpected localized tsunami. We show that direct earthquake-induced uplift and subsidence could have sourced the observed tsunami within Palu Bay. To this end, we use a physics-based, coupled earthquake–tsunami modeling framework tightly constrained by observations. The model combines rupture dynamics, seismic wave propagation, tsunami propagation and inundation. The earthquake scenario, featuring sustained supershear rupture propagation, matches key observed earthquake characteristics, including the moment magnitude, rupture duration, fault plane solution, teleseismic waveforms and inferred horizontal ground displacements. The remote stress regime reflecting regional transtension applied in the model produces a combination of up to 6 m left-lateral slip and up to 2 m normal slip on the straight fault segment dipping 65∘ East beneath Palu Bay. The time-dependent, 3D seafloor displacements are translated into bathymetry perturbations with a mean vertical offset of 1.5 m across the submarine fault segment. This sources a tsunami with wave amplitudes and periods that match those measured at the Pantoloan wave gauge and inundation that reproduces observations from field surveys. We conclude that a source related to earthquake displacements is probable and that landsliding may not have been the primary source of the tsunami. These results have important implications for submarine strike-slip fault systems worldwide. Physics-based modeling offers rapid response specifically in tectonic settings that are currently underrepresented in operational tsunami hazard assessment

Tsunamigenic predecessors to the 2009 Samoa Earthquake.

We analyze historical earthquakes of the past century having generated regional tsunamis in Samoa, by means of epicentral relocation and quantification of spectral amplitudes of waveforms from historical seismograms. The only tsunami with a level of destruction comparable to the 2009 event was generated by the earthquake of 26 June 1917 in the Samoa corner. Yet, a memory of this event is largely absent from the ancestral heritage of the present population of Samoa, which we tentatively attribute to the nearly simultaneous occurrence of the influenza epidemic in 1918. While not able to fully resolve focal geometries, we document a diversity of mechanisms, which add an element of unpredictability to the forecast of any future tsunami in the region. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V