Physics-derived covariance functions for machine learning in structural dynamics ⁎

This paper attempts to bridge the gap between standard engineering practice and machine learning when modelling stochastic processes. For a number of physical processes of interest, derivation of the (auto)covariance is achievable. This paper suggests their use as priors in a standard Gaussian process regression as a means of enhancing predictive capability in situations where they are reflective of the process of interest. A covariance function of a linear oscillator under random load is derived and used in a regression context to predict the displacements of a vibratory system. A simulation case study is used to demonstrate the enhancement over a standard Gaussian process regression model. ⁎ The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the EPSRC, particularly through grant reference number EP/S001565/

Constraining Gaussian processes for physics-informed acoustic emission mapping

The automated localisation of damage in structures is a challenging but critical ingredient in the path towards predictive or condition-based maintenance of high value structures. The use of acoustic emission time of arrival mapping is a promising approach to this challenge, but is severely hindered by the need to collect a dense set of artificial acoustic emission measurements across the structure, resulting in a lengthy and often impractical data acquisition process. In this paper, we consider the use of physics-informed Gaussian processes for learning these maps to alleviate this problem. In the approach, the Gaussian process is constrained to the physical domain such that information relating to the geometry and boundary conditions of the structure are embedded directly into the learning process, returning a model that guarantees that any predictions made satisfy physically-consistent behaviour at the boundary. A number of scenarios that arise when training measurement acquisition is limited, including where training data are sparse, and also of limited coverage over the structure of interest. Using a complex plate-like structure as an experimental case study, we show that our approach significantly reduces the burden of data collection, where it is seen that incorporation of boundary condition knowledge significantly improves predictive accuracy as training observations are reduced, particularly when training measurements are not available across all parts of the structure

On the application of Gaussian process latent force models for joint input-state-parameter estimation : With a view to Bayesian operational identification

The problem of identifying dynamic structural systems is of key interest to modern engineering practice and is often a first step in an analysis chain, such as validation of computer models or structural health monitoring. While this topic has been well covered for tests conducted in a laboratory setting, identification of full-scale structures in place remains challenging. Additionally, during in service assessment, it is often not possible to measure the loading that a given structure is subjected to; this could be due to practical limitations or cost. Current solutions to this problem revolve around assumptions regarding the nature of the load a structure is subject to; almost exclusively this is assumed to be a white Gaussian noise. However, in many cases this assumption is insufficient and can lead to biased results in system identification. This current work presents a model which attempts the system identification task (in terms of the parametric estimation) in conjunction with estimation of the inputs to the system and the latent states --- the displacements and velocities of the system. Within this paper, a Bayesian framework is presented for rigorous uncertainty quantification over both the system parameters and the unknown input signal. A Gaussian process latent force model allows a flexible Bayesian prior to be placed over the unknown forcing signal, which in conjunction with the state-space representation, allows fully Bayesian inference over the complete dynamic system and the unknown inputs

Bayesian joint input-state estimation for nonlinear systems

This work suggests a solution for joint input-state estimation for nonlinear systems. The task is to recover the internal states of a nonlinear oscillator, the displacement and velocity of the system, and the unmeasured external forces applied. To do this, a Gaussian process latent force model is developed for nonlinear systems. The model places a Gaussian process prior over the unknown input forces for the system, converts this into a state-space form and then augments the nonlinear system with these additional hidden states. To perform inference over this nonlinear state-space model a particle Gibbs approach is used combining a “Particle Gibbs with Ancestor Sampling” Markov kernel for the states and a Metropolis-Hastings update for the hyperparameters of the Gaussian process. This approach is shown to be effective in a numerical case study on a Duffing oscillator where the internal states and the unknown forcing are recovered, each with a normalised mean-squared error less than 0.5%. It is also shown how this Bayesian approach allows uncertainty quantification of the estimates of the states and inputs which can be invaluable in further engineering analyses

Distributions of fatigue damage from data-driven strain prediction using Gaussian process regression

Fatigue is a leading cause of structural failure; however, monitoring and prediction of damage accumulation remains an open problem, particularly in complex environments where maintaining sensing equipment is challenging. As a result, there is a growing interest in virtual loads monitoring, or inferential sensing, particularly for predicting strain in areas of interest using machine learning methods. This paper pursues a probabilistic approach, relying on a Gaussian process (GP) regression, to produce both strain predictions and a predictive distribution of the accumulated fatigue damage in a given time period. Here, the fatigue distribution is achieved via propagation of successive draws from the posterior GP through a rainflow count. The establishment of such a distribution crucially accounts for uncertainty in the predictive model and will form a valuable element in any probabilistic risk assessment. For demonstration of the method, distributions for predicted fatigue damage in an aircraft wing are produced across 84 flights. The distributions provide a robust measure of predicted damage accumulation and model uncertainty

A Bayesian methodology for localising acoustic emission sources in complex structures

In the field of structural health monitoring (SHM), the acquisition of acoustic emissions to localise damage sources has emerged as a popular approach. Despite recent advances, the task of locating damage within composite materials and structures that contain non-trivial geometrical features, still poses a significant challenge. Within this paper, a Bayesian source localisation strategy that is robust to these complexities is presented. Under this new framework, a Gaussian process is first used to learn the relationship between source locations and the corresponding difference-in-time-of-arrival values for a number of sensor pairings. As an acoustic emission event with an unknown origin is observed, a mapping is then generated that quantifies the likelihood of the emission location across the surface of the structure. The new probabilistic mapping offers multiple benefits, leading to a localisation strategy that is more informative than deterministic predictions or single-point estimates with an associated confidence bound. The performance of the approach is investigated on a structure with numerous complex geometrical features and demonstrates a favourable performance in comparison to other similar localisation methods

Foundations of population-based SHM, Part I : homogeneous populations and forms

In Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), measured data that correspond to an extensive set of operational and damage conditions (for a given structure) are rarely available. One potential solution considers that information might be transferred, in some sense, between similar systems. A population-based approach to SHM looks to both model and transfer this missing information, by considering data collected from groups of similar structures. Specifically, in this work, a framework is proposed to model a population of nominally-identical systems, such that (complete) datasets are only available from a subset of members. The SHM strategy defines a general model, referred to as the population form, which is used to monitor a homogeneous group of systems. First, the framework is demonstrated through applications to a simulated population, with one experimental (test-rig) member; the form is then adapted and applied to signals recorded from an operational wind farm

A sampling-based approach for information-theoretic inspection management

A partially supervised approach to Structural Health Monitoring is proposed, to manage the cost associated with expert inspections and maximize the value of monitoring regimes. Unlike conventional data-driven procedures, the monitoring classifier is learnt online while making predictions—negating the requirement for complete data before a system is in operation (which are rarely available). Most critically, periodic inspections are replaced (or enhanced) by an automatic inspection regime, which only queries measurements that appear informative to the evolving model of the damage-sensitive features. The result is a partially supervised Dirichlet process clustering that manages expert inspections online given incremental data. The method is verified on a simulated example and demonstrated on in situ bridge monitoring data

Identification of a Duffing oscillator using particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling

The Duffing oscillator remains a key benchmark in nonlinear systems analysis and poses interesting challenges in nonlinear structural identification. The use of particle methods or sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is becoming a more common approach for tackling these nonlinear dynamical systems, within structural dynamics and beyond. This paper demonstrates the use of a tailored SMC algorithm within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to allow inference over the latent states and parameters of the Duffing oscillator in a Bayesian manner. This approach to system identification offers a statistically more rigorous treatment of the problem than the common state-augmentation methods where the parameters of the model are included as additional latent states. It is shown how recent advances in particle MCMC methods, namely the particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PG-AS) algorithm is capable of performing efficient Bayesian inference, even in cases where little is known about the system parameters a priori. The advantage of this Bayesian approach is the quantification of uncertainty, not only in the system parameters but also in the states of the model (displacement and velocity) even in the presence of measurement noise

Pulse Dynamics in a Chain of Granules With Friction

We study the dynamics of a pulse in a chain of granules with friction. We present theories for chains of cylindrical granules (Hertz potential with exponent $n=2$) and of granules with other geometries ($n>2$). Our results are supported via numerical simulations for cylindrical and for spherical granules ($n=5/2$).Comment: Submitted to PR