Renal relapse in antineutrophil cytoplasmic autoantibody-associated vasculitis: unpredictable, but predictive of renal outcome

Objectives. To determine predictors of renal relapse and end-stage renal failure (ESRF) in patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis.Methods. Data from four European Vasculitis Society randomized controlled trials, conducted roughly simultaneously between 15 March 1995 and 30 September 2002, was pooled to determine predictors of long-term renal outcome. The respective trial inclusion criteria covered the entire spectrum of disease severity. Baseline predictors of time to first renal relapse and time to ESRF were assessed by competing events analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. The effect of renal relapse on time to ESRF was assessed by adding renal relapses to the competing events analysis as a time-varying covariate.Results. The number of patients participating was 535; mean serum creatinine (+/- S.D.) at entry was 341 +/- 321 mu mol/l and 19.7% developed ESRF. One or more renal relapse(s) was experienced by 101 patients. Multivariable regression analysis demonstrated that, in addition to impaired baseline renal function, developing >= 1 renal relapse was an independent risk factor for ESRF (subhazard ratio 9; 95% CI 4, 19; P < 0.001). No predictive factors for renal relapse were found.Conclusion. In addition to baseline renal function, the occurrence of renal relapses is an important determinant of ESRF in patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis. We did not find any clinical predictors for renal relapse itself, including disease activity elsewhere. In light of the silent nature of renal relapse in ANCA-associated vasculitis, we stress the need for long-term vigilant monitoring for early signs of renal relapse and propose performing 3-monthly urinalysis. This will enable timely treatment and help further improve renal outcome.Pathophysiology and treatment of rheumatic disease

Clinical nephrology-epidemiology-clinical trials: Determinants of outcome in ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis: A prospective clinico-histopathological analysis of 96 patients

Background. The predictive value of clinical and renal histological features for renal outcome in patients with anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic autoantibody (ANCA)-associated glomerulonephritis was investigated in a prospective analysis of 96 patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis, and moderate renal involvement (creatinine <500 \uce\ubcmol/L). Methods. The extent of 39 histological features in 96 biopsies (performed at entry in a clinical trial) was scored by two independent observers, according to a standardized protocol. Age, gender, diagnosis, glomerular filtration rate at entry (GFR0), ANCA-specificity, proteinuria, and treatment of these 96 patients were also taken into account. Treatment was standardized and started after the biopsy was performed. Endpoints included renal function at 18 months (GFR18), GFR18 corrected for GFR0 (CORGFR18), and the occurrence of relapse or death. Results. Parameters that most strongly correlated with GFR18 were GFR0 (r = 0.67), interstitial fibrosis (r = -0.45), glomerulosclerosis (r = -0.37), and tubular atrophy (r = -0.36). Parameters that most strongly correlated with CORGFR18 were segmental (r = 0.45) and cellular (r = 0.30) crescents, and fibrinoid necrosis (r = 0.46). None of the clinical and histological features predicted the occurrence of relapse or death. By applying a stepwise linear multiple regression analysis, we designed a formula for the estimation of renal function at 18 months: GFR18 (mL/min) = 17 + 0.71 \uc3\u97 GFR0 (mL/min) + 0.34 \uc3\u97 fibrinoid necrosis (%) + 0.33 \uc3\u97 segmental crescents (%), (r2 = 0.60; standard deviation = 19 mL/min). Our results were independent of diagnosis, ANCA-specificity, and treatment limb. Conclusions. These data suggest that in ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis, GFR0 and predominantly chronic renal lesions are potent predictors of GFR18. Active lesions are associated with renal function recovery and may be reversible. The formula for the estimation of GFR18 shows that a combination of GFR0 and renal histology is a better predictor for GFR18 than GFR0 only