Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on election day 2004, and then during the vote count we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices, and a stronger dollar under a George W. Bush presidency than under John Kerry. A similar Republican–Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush–Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican president raises equity valuations by 2–3 percent, and that since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields

The Promise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design and use of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provide information that will benefit the private sector and government alike.Technology and Industry

Sex-specific local life-history adaptation in surface- and cave-dwelling Atlantic mollies (Poecilia mexicana)

Cavefishes have long been used as model organisms showcasing adaptive diversification, but does adaptation to caves also facilitate the evolution of reproductive isolation from surface ancestors? We raised offspring of wild-caught surface- and cave-dwelling ecotypes of the neotropical fish Poecilia mexicana to sexual maturity in a 12-month common garden experiment. Fish were raised under one of two food regimes (high vs. low), and this was crossed with differences in lighting conditions (permanent darkness vs. 12:12 h light:dark cycle) in a 2 × 2 factorial design, allowing us to elucidate potential patterns of local adaptation in life histories. Our results reveal a pattern of sex-specific local life-history adaptation: Surface molly females had the highest fitness in the treatment best resembling their habitat of origin (high food and a light:dark cycle), and suffered from almost complete reproductive failure in darkness, while cave molly females were not similarly affected in any treatment. Males of both ecotypes, on the other hand, showed only weak evidence for local adaptation. Nonetheless, local life-history adaptation in females likely contributes to ecological diversification in this system and other cave animals, further supporting the role of local adaptation due to strong divergent selection as a major force in ecological speciation

La nueva ley de instituciones bancarias, financieras y de seguros: algunos comentarios

This research was funded by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada discovery grants to LL and L-AG. NJB was financially supported by a Dr. Richard H. Tomlinson Fellowship and a Dr. Milton Leong Fellowship from McGill University. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Background: Successful foraging is essential for survival and reproductive success. In many bird species, foraging is a learned behaviour. To cope with environmental change and survive periods in which regular foods are scarce, the ability to solve novel foraging problems by learning new foraging techniques can be crucial. Although females have been shown to prefer more efficient foragers, the effect of males' foraging techniques on female mate choice has never been studied. We tested whether females would prefer males showing the same learned foraging technique as they had been exposed to as juveniles, or whether females would prefer males that showed a complementary foraging technique. Methodology/Principal Findings: We first trained juvenile male and female zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata) to obtain a significant proportion of their food by one of two foraging techniques. We then tested whether females showed a preference for males with the same or the alternative technique. We found that neither a male's foraging technique nor his foraging performance affected the time females spent in his proximity in the mate-choice apparatus. We then released flocks of these finches into an aviary to investigate whether assortative pairing would be facilitated by birds taught the same technique exploiting the same habitat. Zebra finches trained as juveniles in a specific foraging technique maintained their foraging specialisation in the aviary as adults. However, pair formation and nest location were random with regard to foraging technique. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings show that zebra finches can be successfully trained to be foraging specialists. However, the robust negative results of the conditions tested here suggest that learned foraging specializations do not affect mate choice or pair formation in our experimental context.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Accounting for behavior in treatment effects: New applications for blind trials

The double-blind randomized controlled trial (DBRCT) is the gold standard of medical research. We show that DBRCTs fail to fully account for the efficacy of treatment if there are interactions between treatment and behavior, for example, if a treatment is more effective when patients change their exercise or diet. Since behavioral or placebo effects depend on patients' beliefs that they are receiving treatment, clinical trials with a single probability of treatment are poorly suited to estimate the additional treatment benefit that arises from such interactions. Here, we propose methods to identify interaction effects, and use those methods in a meta-analysis of data from blinded anti-depressant trials in which participant-level data was available. Out of six eligible studies, which included three for the selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitor paroxetine, and three for the tricyclic imipramine, three studies had a high (>65%) probability of treatment. We found strong evidence that treatment probability affected the behavior of trial participants, specifically the decision to drop out of a trial. In the case of paroxetine, but not imipramine, there was an interaction between treatment and behavioral changes that enhanced the effectiveness of the drug. These data show that standard blind trials can fail to account for the full value added when there are interactions between a treatment and behavior. We therefore suggest that a new trial design, two-bytwo blind trials, will better account for treatment efficacy when interaction effects may be important

Prediction Markets: Reality and Theory

Data on individual trades in prediction markets relating to the 2008 and 2012 US Presidential elections reveal that traders vary enormously in their behavior. This contrasts with the standard prediction-market models, which assume relatively homogeneous participants who differ only in their beliefs and wealth. We show that risk-lovers have particularly strong distortionary effects on market outcomes even when beliefs are symmetrically distributed around the truth. Simulations of a model which allows traders to have different motives and tastes for risk indicate that including such traders produce the market outcomes we observe, such as herding, persistent contrariness, a skewed profits’ distribution and favorite-long-shot bias. The attraction of such markets to risk-lovers means that caution must be exercised when using prediction-market prices for forecasting

Life Enhancing Activities for Family Caregivers of people with dementia: protocol for a randomized controlled trial of a positive affect skills intervention.

Given the increasing number of family caregivers of persons with dementia (PWD) and the associated burden and detriments to both physical and mental health, interventions that aim to improve such outcomes are important. Studies are increasingly demonstrating the unique importance of positive emotions in coping with stress, independent from the impact of negative emotions. However, none have examined the benefits of interventions that target positive emotions for caregivers of individuals with a chronic and debilitating disease such as dementia. This paper presents the design and methods for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a positive affect skills intervention for family caregivers of PWD. The RCT is of a skills-based intervention that seeks to increase the frequency and intensity of positive affect in order to improve outcomes such as well-being, coping, and physical and mental health. The skills are delivered by trained facilitators via five one-to-one Internet video sessions with family caregivers of persons diagnosed with dementia (eg, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, unspecified). The control group is an emotion reporting/waitlist control. Follow-up assessments are conducted post-intervention and at 1, 3, and 6 months post-completion of the intervention. This study promises to be an important and needed step toward improving the lives of caregivers of PWD