Predicting relapse in anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis: A Systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives: Relapses affect 30-50% of patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) over 5 years, necessitating long-term treatment. Although there have been studies looking at predictors of relapse in AAV, this research has yet to translate clinically into guidance on tailored therapy. The aim of this systematic review was to identify and meta-analyse existing risk factors from the literature and produce a model to calculate individualised patient risk of relapse. Method: A search strategy was developed to include all studies identifying predictors of AAV relapse using multivariate analysis. Individual risk factors were extracted and pooled hazard ratios (HRs) calculated. A model to predict the time to first relapse based on identified risk factors was tested retrospectively using a cohort of patients with AAV. Results: The review of 2674 abstracts identified 117 papers for full text review, with 16 eligible for inclusion. Pooled HRs were calculated from significant risk factors, including anti-PR3 ANCA positivity [HR 1.69 (95% CI 1.46, 1.94)], cardiovascular involvement [HR 1.78 (95% CI 1.26, 2.53)], creatinine >200 μmol/l (relative to creatinine ≤100) [HR 0.39 (95% CI 0.22, 0.69)] and creatinine 101-200 μmol/l [HR 0.81 (95% CI 0.77, 0.85)]. Using data from 182 AAV patients to validate the model gave a C-statistic of 0.61. Conclusion: Anti-PR3 ANCA positivity, lower serum creatinine and cardiovascular system involvement are all associated with an increased risk of relapse, and a combination of these risk factors can be used to predict the individualised risk of relapse. In order to produce a clinically useful model to stratify risk, we need to identify more risk factors, with a focus on robust biomarkers

Orbital Instabilities in a Triaxial Cusp Potential

This paper constructs an analytic form for a triaxial potential that describes the dynamics of a wide variety of astrophysical systems, including the inner portions of dark matter halos, the central regions of galactic bulges, and young embedded star clusters. Specifically, this potential results from a density profile of the form $\rho (m) \propto m^{-1}$, where the radial coordinate is generalized to triaxial form so that $m^2 = x^2/a^2 + y^2/b^2 + z^2/c^2$. Using the resulting analytic form of the potential, and the corresponding force laws, we construct orbit solutions and show that a robust orbit instability exists in these systems. For orbits initially confined to any of the three principal planes, the motion in the perpendicular direction can be unstable. We discuss the range of parameter space for which these orbits are unstable, find the growth rates and saturation levels of the instability, and develop a set of analytic model equations that elucidate the essential physics of the instability mechanism. This orbit instability has a large number of astrophysical implications and applications, including understanding the formation of dark matter halos, the structure of galactic bulges, the survival of tidal streams, and the early evolution of embedded star clusters.Comment: 50 pages, accepted for publication in Ap

Influenza D virus: Serological evidence in the Italian population from 2005 to 2017

Influenza D virus is a novel influenza virus, which was first isolated from an ailing swine in 2011 and later detected in cattle, suggesting that these animals may be a primary natural reservoir. To date, few studies have been performed on human samples and there is no conclusive evidence on the ability of the virus to infect humans. The aim of this serological study was to assess the prevalence of antibodies against influenza D virus in human serum samples collected in Italy from 2005 to 2017. Serum samples were analysed by haemagglutination inhibition and virus neutralization assays. The results showed that the prevalence of antibodies against the virus increased in the human population in Italy from 2005 to 2017, with a trend characterized by a sharp increase in some years, followed by a decline in subsequent years. The virus showed the ability to infect and elicit an immune response in humans. However, prevalence peaks in humans appear to follow epidemics in animals and not to persist in the human population

Face Mask Use and Control of Respiratory Virus Transmission in Households

Mask use is associated with low adherence, but adherent mask users are significantly protected against seasonal disease

How Immunocontraception Can Contribute to Elephant Management in Small, Enclosed Reserves: Munyawana Population as a Case Study

Immunocontraception has been widely used as a management tool to reduce population growth in captive as well as wild populations of various fauna. We model the use of an individual-based rotational immunocontraception plan on a wild elephant, Loxodonta africana, population and quantify the social and reproductive advantages of this method of implementation using adaptive management. The use of immunocontraception on an individual, rotational basis stretches the inter-calving interval for each individual female elephant to a management-determined interval, preventing exposing females to unlimited long-term immunocontraception use (which may have as yet undocumented negative effects). Such rotational immunocontraception can effectively lower population growth rates, age the population, and alter the age structure. Furthermore, such structured intervention can simulate natural process such as predation or episodic catastrophic events (e.g., drought), which regulates calf recruitment within an abnormally structured population. A rotational immunocontraception plan is a feasible and useful elephant population management tool, especially in a small, enclosed conservation area. Such approaches should be considered for other long-lived, social species in enclosed areas where the long-term consequences of consistent contraception may be unknown

WOSMIP II- Workshop on Signatures of Medical and Industrial Isotope Production

Medical and industrial fadioisotopes are fundamental tools used in science, medicine and industry with an ever expanding usage in medical practice where their availability is vital. Very sensitive environmental radionuclide monitoring networks have been developed for nuclear-security-related monitoring [particularly Comprehensive Test-Ban-Treaty (CTBT) compliance verification] and are now operational

Rapid semi-automated quantitative multiplex tandem PCR (MT-PCR) assays for the differential diagnosis of influenza-like illness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Influenza A, including avian influenza, is a major public health threat in developed and developing countries. Rapid and accurate detection is a key component of strategies to contain spread of infection, and the efficient diagnosis of influenza-like-illness is essential to protect health infrastructure in the event of a major influenza outbreak.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a multiplexed PCR (MT-PCR) assay for the simultaneous diagnosis of respiratory viruses causing influenza-like illness, including the specific recognition of influenza A haemagglutinin subtypes H1, H3, and H5. We tested several hundred clinical specimens in two diagnostic reference laboratories and compared the results with standard techniques.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The sensitivity and specificity of these assays was higher than individual assays based on direct antigen detection and standard PCR against a range of control templates and in several hundred clinical specimens. The MT-PCR assays provided differential diagnoses as well as potentially useful quantitation of virus in clinical samples.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>MT-PCR is a potentially powerful tool for the differential diagnosis of influenza-like illness in the clinical diagnostic laboratory.</p

Exploring UK medical school differences: the MedDifs study of selection, teaching, student and F1 perceptions, postgraduate outcomes and fitness to practise

BACKGROUND: Medical schools differ, particularly in their teaching, but it is unclear whether such differences matter, although influential claims are often made. The Medical School Differences (MedDifs) study brings together a wide range of measures of UK medical schools, including postgraduate performance, fitness to practise issues, specialty choice, preparedness, satisfaction, teaching styles, entry criteria and institutional factors. METHOD: Aggregated data were collected for 50 measures across 29 UK medical schools. Data include institutional history (e.g. rate of production of hospital and GP specialists in the past), curricular influences (e.g. PBL schools, spend per student, staff-student ratio), selection measures (e.g. entry grades), teaching and assessment (e.g. traditional vs PBL, specialty teaching, self-regulated learning), student satisfaction, Foundation selection scores, Foundation satisfaction, postgraduate examination performance and fitness to practise (postgraduate progression, GMC sanctions). Six specialties (General Practice, Psychiatry, Anaesthetics, Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Internal Medicine, Surgery) were examined in more detail. RESULTS: Medical school differences are stable across time (median alpha = 0.835). The 50 measures were highly correlated, 395 (32.2%) of 1225 correlations being significant with p < 0.05, and 201 (16.4%) reached a Tukey-adjusted criterion of p < 0.0025. Problem-based learning (PBL) schools differ on many measures, including lower performance on postgraduate assessments. While these are in part explained by lower entry grades, a surprising finding is that schools such as PBL schools which reported greater student satisfaction with feedback also showed lower performance at postgraduate examinations. More medical school teaching of psychiatry, surgery and anaesthetics did not result in more specialist trainees. Schools that taught more general practice did have more graduates entering GP training, but those graduates performed less well in MRCGP examinations, the negative correlation resulting from numbers of GP trainees and exam outcomes being affected both by non-traditional teaching and by greater historical production of GPs. Postgraduate exam outcomes were also higher in schools with more self-regulated learning, but lower in larger medical schools. A path model for 29 measures found a complex causal nexus, most measures causing or being caused by other measures. Postgraduate exam performance was influenced by earlier attainment, at entry to Foundation and entry to medical school (the so-called academic backbone), and by self-regulated learning. Foundation measures of satisfaction, including preparedness, had no subsequent influence on outcomes. Fitness to practise issues were more frequent in schools producing more male graduates and more GPs. CONCLUSIONS: Medical schools differ in large numbers of ways that are causally interconnected. Differences between schools in postgraduate examination performance, training problems and GMC sanctions have important implications for the quality of patient care and patient safety

The Analysis of Teaching of Medical Schools (AToMS) survey: an analysis of 47,258 timetabled teaching events in 25 UK medical schools relating to timing, duration, teaching formats, teaching content, and problem-based learning

BACKGROUND: What subjects UK medical schools teach, what ways they teach subjects, and how much they teach those subjects is unclear. Whether teaching differences matter is a separate, important question. This study provides a detailed picture of timetabled undergraduate teaching activity at 25 UK medical schools, particularly in relation to problem-based learning (PBL). METHOD: The Analysis of Teaching of Medical Schools (AToMS) survey used detailed timetables provided by 25 schools with standard 5-year courses. Timetabled teaching events were coded in terms of course year, duration, teaching format, and teaching content. Ten schools used PBL. Teaching times from timetables were validated against two other studies that had assessed GP teaching and lecture, seminar, and tutorial times. RESULTS: A total of 47,258 timetabled teaching events in the academic year 2014/2015 were analysed, including SSCs (student-selected components) and elective studies. A typical UK medical student receives 3960 timetabled hours of teaching during their 5-year course. There was a clear difference between the initial 2 years which mostly contained basic medical science content and the later 3 years which mostly consisted of clinical teaching, although some clinical teaching occurs in the first 2 years. Medical schools differed in duration, format, and content of teaching. Two main factors underlay most of the variation between schools, Traditional vs PBL teaching and Structured vs Unstructured teaching. A curriculum map comparing medical schools was constructed using those factors. PBL schools differed on a number of measures, having more PBL teaching time, fewer lectures, more GP teaching, less surgery, less formal teaching of basic science, and more sessions with unspecified content. DISCUSSION: UK medical schools differ in both format and content of teaching. PBL and non-PBL schools clearly differ, albeit with substantial variation within groups, and overlap in the middle. The important question of whether differences in teaching matter in terms of outcomes is analysed in a companion study (MedDifs) which examines how teaching differences relate to university infrastructure, entry requirements, student perceptions, and outcomes in Foundation Programme and postgraduate training