Comparison of dose estimates using the buildup-factor method and a Baryon transport code (BRYNTRN) with Monte Carlo results

Continuing efforts toward validating the buildup factor method and the BRYNTRN code, which use the deterministic approach in solving radiation transport problems and are the candidate engineering tools in space radiation shielding analyses, are presented. A simplified theory of proton buildup factors assuming no neutron coupling is derived to verify a previously chosen form for parameterizing the dose conversion factor that includes the secondary particle buildup effect. Estimates of dose in tissue made by the two deterministic approaches and the Monte Carlo method are intercompared for cases with various thicknesses of shields and various types of proton spectra. The results are found to be in reasonable agreement but with some overestimation by the buildup factor method when the effect of neutron production in the shield is significant. Future improvement to include neutron coupling in the buildup factor theory is suggested to alleviate this shortcoming. Impressive agreement for individual components of doses, such as those from the secondaries and heavy particle recoils, are obtained between BRYNTRN and Monte Carlo results

Improved model for solar cosmic ray exposure in manned Earth orbital flights

A calculational model is derived for use in estimating Solar cosmic ray exposure to critical body organs in low-Earth orbit at the center of a large spherical shield of fixed thickness. The effects of the Earth's geomagnetic field and the astronauts' self-shielding are evaluated explicitly. The geomagnetic field model is an approximate tilted eccentric dipole with geomagnetic storms represented as a uniform-impressed field. The storm field is related to the planetary geomagnetic index K(sub p). The code is applied to the Shuttle geometry using the Shuttle mass distribution surrounding two locations on the flight deck. The Shuttle is treated as pure aluminum and the astronaut as soft tissue. Short-term, average fluence over a single orbit is calculated as a function of the location of the lines of nodes or long-term averages over all lines of nodes for a fixed inclination

Assessing the Benefits of NASA Category 3, Low Cost Class C/D Missions

Category 3, Class C/D missions have the benefit of delivering worthwhile science at minimal cost which is increasingly important in NASA's constrained budget environment. Although higher cost Category 1 and 2 missions are necessary to achieve NASA's science objectives, Category 3 missions are shown to be an effective way to provide significant science return at a low cost. Category 3 missions, however, are often reviewed the same as the more risk averse Category 1 and 2 missions. Acknowledging that reviews are not the only aspect of a total engineering effort, reviews are still a significant concern for NASA programs. This can unnecessarily increase the cost and schedule of Category 3 missions. This paper quantifies the benefit and performance of Category 3 missions by looking at the cost vs. capability relative to Category 1 and 2 missions. Lessons learned from successful organizations that develop low cost Category 3, Class C/D missions are also investigated to help provide the basis for suggestions to streamline the review of NASA Category 3 missions

Challenges and Potential Solutions to Develop and Fund NASA Flagship Missions

Large, strategic "Flagship" missions have unique characteristics that lead to challenging developmental difficulties for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Missions such as the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), and the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) had technical and programmatic challenges that led to significant schedule delays and subsequent cost growth. Although NASA has instituted policies that have reduced cost growth for more "typical" NASA science missions, NASA Flagship missions remain a distinct challenge due to their requirement to provide unprecedented science or tackle bold exploration goals, typically while concurrently developing new technologies. The unique challenges presented by Flagship missions make it extremely difficult to fully predict cost and schedule given that the technical and programmatic advances needed to meet performance requirements are unprecedented. This paper addresses why Flagship missions are unique and proposes a new programmatic approach to develop and fund Flagship missions

Simplified model for solar cosmic ray exposure in manned Earth orbital flights

A simple calculational model is derived for use in estimating solar cosmic ray exposure to critical body organs in low-Earth orbit at the center of a large spherical shield of fixed thickness. The effects of the Earth's geomagnetic field, including storm conditions and the astronauts' self-shielding, are evaluated explicitly. The magnetic storm model is keyed to the planetary index K(sub p)

Intense hurricane activity over the past 1500 years at South Andros Island, the Bahamas

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in E. J., Donnelly, J. P., van Hengstum, P. J., Wiman, C., Sullivan, R. M., Winkler, T. S., d'Entremont, N. E., Toomey, M., & Albury, N. Intense hurricane activity over the past 1500 years at South Andros Island, the Bahamas. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 34(11), (2019): 1761-1783, doi:10.1029/2019PA003665.Hurricanes cause substantial loss of life and resources in coastal areas. Unfortunately, historical hurricane records are too short and incomplete to capture hurricane‐climate interactions on multi‐decadal and longer timescales. Coarse‐grained, hurricane‐induced deposits preserved in blue holes in the Caribbean can provide records of past hurricane activity extending back thousands of years. Here we present a high resolution record of intense hurricane events over the past 1500 years from a blue hole on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This record is corroborated by shorter reconstructions from cores collected at two nearby blue holes. The record contains coarse‐grained event deposits attributable to known historical hurricane strikes within age uncertainties. Over the past 1500 years, South Andros shows evidence of four active periods of hurricane activity. None of these active intervals occurred in the past 163 years. We suggest that Intertropical Convergence Zone position modulates hurricane activity on the island based on a correlation with Cariaco Basin titanium concentrations. An anomalous gap in activity on South Andros Island in the early 13th century corresponds to a period of increased volcanism. The patterns of hurricane activity reconstructed from South Andros Island closely match those from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but are anti‐phased with records from New England. We suggest that either changes in local environmental conditions (e.g., SSTs) or a northeastward shift in storm tracks can account for the increased activity in the western North Atlantic when the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Caribbean are less active.This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (to E.J.W.), National Science Foundation grant OCE‐1356708 (to J.P.D. and P.J.vH.), the Dalio Explore Foundation and the USGS Land Change Science Program (M.R.T.). We are grateful to members of WHOI Coastal Systems Group, in particular Stephanie Madsen, for their help in the processing core samples. We thank two anonymous reviewers, Matthew Lachniet, Marci Robinson (USGS) and Miriam Jones (USGS) for their helpful feedback on earlier versions of this manuscript. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The data are available on the National Climatic Data Center (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/dataaccess/paleoclimatology‐data) and WHOI Coastal Systems Group (https://web.whoi.edu/coastal‐group/) websites

Sea-level records at ~80 ka from tectonically stable platforms: Florida and Bermuda

Studies from tectonically active coasts on New Guinea and Barbados have suggested that sea level at ~80 ka was significantly lower than present, whereas data from the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of North America indicate an ~80 ka sea level close to that of the present. We determined ages of corals from a shallow submerged reef off the Florida Keys and an emergent marine deposit on Bermuda. Both localities are on tectonically stable platforms distant from plate boundaries. Uranium-series ages show that corals at both localities grew during the ~80 ka sea-level highstand, and geologic data show that sea level at that time was no lower than 7–9 m below present (Florida) and may have been 1–2 m above present (Bermuda). The ice-volume discrepancy of the 80 ka sea-level estimates is greater than the volume of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets. Comparison of our ages with high-latitude insolation values indicates that the sea-level stand near the present at ~80 ka could have been orbitally forced

LET spectra of fragmented 600-MeV/A iron beam on aluminum and polyethylene: A preliminary analysis

An iron beam experiment recently conducted at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Bevalac by Benton et al. provides an opportunity for verifying the new Green's function computer code (GRNTRN) and assessing the related nuclear database. The iron beam with 600 MeV/A at extraction traversed a series of beam transport elements, lead foil, and several triggering devices before impacting the target. Of these, only the 2.24 g/sq cm lead foil and target are considered in the transport analysis with an assumed (inferred from calibration) beam energy of 557 MeV/A. A thin layer of CR-39 plastic nuclear track detector (PNTD) was placed in front of the target to monitor the incident flux and a stack of four PNTD's placed behind to measure the linear energy transfer (LET) distribution of the transported beam. Test data are analyzed for three separate targets: 2 g/sq cm aluminum, 5-cm polyethylene, and 8-cm polyethylene. The two-layer GRNTRN results were mapped into the detector response function for comparison with the measured LET spectra. Reasonable agreement is obtained. Future research and analysis can be improved by using a more accurate isotope set or including other important media which significantly alter the beam. The assumption that the fragmentation cross sections are too small for aluminum is inconclusive because the production of fragments by 2 g/sq cm aluminum can be more significantly affected by the fragment contribution originating from the media in front of the target than that currently considered in the analysis