Predicting land use and soil controls on erosion and sediment redistribution in agricultural loess areas: model development and cross scale verification

This study quantifies soil and land use controls on sediment mobilisation and redistribution in cultivated loess soil landscapes, as these landscapes are frequently used for intensive cultivation and are highly susceptible to erosion. To this end we developed and verified a process based model named CATFLOW-SED at the plot, hillslope and catchment scales. The model relies on an explicit representation of hillslopes and their dominant physiographical characteristics which control overland flow formation, particle detachment and sediment redistribution (transport and sedimentation). Erosion processes are represented by means of the steady state approximation of the sediment continuity equation, their interaction is conceptualized based on the sediment transport capacity of overland flow. Particle detachment is represented by means of a threshold approach accounting for the attacking forces of rainfall and overland flow which need to exceed a threshold in soil erosion resistance to mobilize soil particles (Scherer et al., 2012). Transport capacity of overland flow is represented as proposed by Engelund and Hansen (1967). Top soil particles and aggregates are detached and transported according to their share in the particle size distribution. Size selective deposition of soil particles is determined based on the sink velocity of the various particle size classes. CATFLOW-SED was verified on the plot, hillslope and catchment scale, where either particle detachment or lateral redistribution or sedimentation is the limiting factor, to check whether the respective parameterizations are transferable for simulations at the next higher scale. For verification we used the Weiherbach data set providing plot scale rainfall simulation experiments, long term monitoring of sediment yields on a selected hillslope as well as observed sediment fluxes at the catchment outlet. Our findings corroborate that CATFLOW-SED predicted the sediment loads at all scales within the error margin of the measurements. An accurate prediction of overland flow turned out as being necessary and sufficient to guarantee spatial transferability of erosion parameters optimized at smaller scales to the next higher scale without need for further calibration. Based on the verified model setup, we investigate the efficiency of land use management to mitigate measures in erosion scenarios for cultivated loess landscapes

Series distance - an intuitive metric to quantify hydrograph similarity in terms of occurrence, amplitude and timing of hydrological events

Applying metrics to quantify the similarity or dissimilarity of hydrographs is a central task in hydrological modelling, used both in model calibration and the evaluation of simulations or forecasts. Motivated by the shortcomings of standard objective metrics such as the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) or the Mean Absolute Peak Time Error (MAPTE) and the advantages of visual inspection as a powerful tool for simultaneous, case-specific and multi-criteria (yet subjective) evaluation, we propose a new objective metric termed Series Distance, which is in close accordance with visual evaluation. The Series Distance quantifies the similarity of two hydrographs neither in a time-aggregated nor in a point-by-point manner, but on the scale of hydrological events. It consists of three parts, namely a Threat Score which evaluates overall agreement of event occurrence, and the overall distance of matching observed and simulated events with respect to amplitude and timing. The novelty of the latter two is the way in which matching point pairs on the observed and simulated hydrographs are identified: not by equality in time (as is the case with the RMSE), but by the same relative position in matching segments (rise or recession) of the event, indicating the same underlying hydrological process. Thus, amplitude and timing errors are calculated simultaneously but separately, from point pairs that also match visually, considering complete events rather than only individual points (as is the case with MAPTE). Relative weights can freely be assigned to each component of the Series Distance, which allows (subjective) customization of the metric to various fields of application, but in a traceable way. Each of the three components of the Series Distance can be used in an aggregated or non-aggregated way, which makes the Series Distance a suitable tool for differentiated, process-based model diagnostics. After discussing the applicability of established time series metrics for hydrographs, we present the Series Distance theory, discuss its properties and compare it to those of standard metrics used in Hydrology, both at the example of simple, artificial hydrographs and an ensemble of realistic forecasts. The results suggest that the Series Distance quantifies the degree of similarity of two hydrographs in a way comparable to visual inspection, but in an objective, reproducible way

Use of soil moisture dynamics and patterns for the investigation of runoff generation processes with emphasis on preferential flow

International audienceSpatial patterns as well as temporal dynamics of soil moisture have a major influence on runoff generation. The investigation of these dynamics and patterns can thus yield valuable information on hydrological processes, especially in data scarce or previously ungauged catchments. The combination of spatially scarce but temporally high resolution soil moisture profiles with episodic and thus temporally scarce moisture profiles at additional locations provides information on spatial as well as temporal patterns of soil moisture at the hillslope transect scale. This approach is better suited to difficult terrain (dense forest, steep slopes) than geophysical techniques and at the same time less cost-intensive than a high resolution grid of continuously measuring sensors. Rainfall simulation experiments with dye tracers while continuously monitoring soil moisture response allows for visualization of flow processes in the unsaturated zone at these locations. Data was analyzed at different spacio-temporal scales using various graphical methods, such as space-time colour maps (for the event and plot scale) and indicator maps (for the long-term and hillslope scale). Annual dynamics of soil moisture and decimeter-scale variability were also investigated. The proposed approach proved to be successful in the investigation of flow processes in the unsaturated zone and showed the importance of preferential flow in the Malalcahuello Catchment, a data-scarce catchment in the Andes of Southern Chile. Fast response times of stream flow indicate that preferential flow observed at the plot scale might also be of importance at the hillslope or catchment scale. Flow patterns were highly variable in space but persistent in time. The most likely explanation for preferential flow in this catchment is a combination of hydrophobicity, small scale heterogeneity in rainfall due to redistribution in the canopy and strong gradients in unsaturated conductivities leading to self-reinforcing flow paths

SciKit-GStat Uncertainty: A software extension to cope with uncertain geostatistical estimates

This study is focused on an extension of a well established geostatistical software to enable one to effectively and interactively cope with uncertainty in geostatistical applications. The extension includes a rich component library, pre-built interfaces and an online application. We discuss the concept of replacing the empirical variogram with its uncertainty bound. This enables one to acknowledge uncertainties characterizing the underlying geostatistical datasets and typical methodological approaches. This allows for a probabilistic description of the variogram and its parameters at the same time. Our approach enables (1) multiple interpretations of a sample and (2) a multi-model context for geostatistical applications. We focus the sample application on propagating observation uncertainties into manual variogram parametrization and analyze its effects. Using two different datasets, we show how insights on uncertainty can be used to reject variogram models, thus constraining the space of formally equally probable models to tackle the issue of parameter equifinality

Use of soil moisture dynamics and patterns at different spatio-temporal scales for the investigation of subsurface flow processes

Spatial patterns as well as temporal dynamics of soil moisture have a major influence on runoff generation. The investigation of these dynamics and patterns can thus yield valuable information on hydrological processes, especially in data scarce or previously ungauged catchments. The combination of spatially scarce but temporally high resolution soil moisture profiles with episodic and thus temporally scarce moisture profiles at additional locations provides information on spatial as well as temporal patterns of soil moisture at the hillslope transect scale. This approach is better suited to difficult terrain (dense forest, steep slopes) than geophysical techniques and at the same time less cost-intensive than a high resolution grid of continuously measuring sensors. Rainfall simulation experiments with dye tracers while continuously monitoring soil moisture response allows for visualization of flow processes in the unsaturated zone at these locations. Data was analyzed at different spacio-temporal scales using various graphical methods, such as space-time colour maps (for the event and plot scale) and binary indicator maps (for the long-term and hillslope scale). Annual dynamics of soil moisture and decimeter-scale variability were also investigated. The proposed approach proved to be successful in the investigation of flow processes in the unsaturated zone and showed the importance of preferential flow in the Malalcahuello Catchment, a data-scarce catchment in the Andes of Southern Chile. Fast response times of stream flow indicate that preferential flow observed at the plot scale might also be of importance at the hillslope or catchment scale. Flow patterns were highly variable in space but persistent in time. The most likely explanation for preferential flow in this catchment is a combination of hydrophobicity, small scale heterogeneity in rainfall due to redistribution in the canopy and strong gradients in unsaturated conductivities leading to self-reinforcing flow paths

Predictions of rainfall-runoff response and soil moisture dynamics in a microscale catchment using the CREW model

International audiencePredictions of catchment hydrology have been performed generally using either physically based, distributed models or conceptual lumped or semi-distributed models. In recognition of the disadvantages of using either of these modeling approaches, namely, detailed data requirements in the case of distributed modeling, and lack of physical basis of conceptual/lumped model parameters, Reggiani et al. (1998, 1999) derived, from first principles and in a general manner, the balance equations for mass, momentum and energy at what they called the Representative Elementary Watershed (or REW) scale. However, the mass balance equations of the REW approach include mass exchange flux terms which must be defined externally before their application to real catchments. Developing physically reasonable "closure relations" for these mass exchange flux terms is a crucial pre-requisite for the success of the REW approach. As a guidance to the development of closure relations expressing mass exchange fluxes as functions of relevant state variables in a physically reasonable way, and in the process effectively parameterizing the effects of sub-grid or sub-REW heterogeneity of catchment physiographic properties on these mass exchange fluxes, this paper considers four different approaches, namely the field experimental approach, a theoretical/analytical approach, a numerical approach, and a hybrid approach combining one or more of the above. Based on the concept of the scaleway (Vogel and Roth, 2003) and the disaggregation-aggregation approach (Viney and Sivapalan, 2004), and using the data set from Weiherbach catchment in Germany, closure relations for infiltration, exfiltration and groundwater recharge were derived analytically, or on theoretical grounds, while numerical experiments with a detailed fine-scale, distributed model, CATFLOW, were used to obtain the closure relationship for seepage outflow. The detailed model, CATFLOW, was also used to derive REW scale pressure-saturation (i.e., water retention curve) and hydraulic conductivity-saturation relationships for the unsaturated zone. Closure relations for concentrated overland flow and saturated overland flow were derived using both theoretical arguments and simpler process models. In addition to these, to complete the specification of the REW scale balance equations, a relationship for the saturated area fraction as a function of saturated zone depth was derived for an assumed topography on the basis of TOPMODEL assumptions. These relationships were used to complete the specification of all of the REW-scale governing equations (mass and momentum balance equations, closure and geometric relations) for the Weiherbach catchment, which are then employed for constructing a numerical watershed model, named the Cooperative Community Catchment model based on the Representative Elementary Watershed approach (CREW). CREW is then used to carry out sensitivity analyses with respect to various combinations of climate, soil, vegetation and topographies, in order to test the reasonableness of the derived closure relations in the context of the complete catchment response, including interacting processes. These sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the adopted closure relations do indeed produce mostly reasonable results, and can therefore be a good basis for more careful and rigorous search for appropriate closure relations in the future. Three tests are designed to assess CREW as a large scale model for Weiherbach catchment. The first test compares CREW with distributed model CATFLOW by looking at predicted soil moisture dynamics for artificially designed initial and boundary conditions. The second test is designed to see the applicabilities of the parameter values extracted from the upscaling procedures in terms of their ability to reproduce observed hydrographs within the CREW modeling framework. The final test compares simulated soil moisture time series predicted by CREW with observed ones as a way of validating the predictions of CREW. The results of these three tests, together, demonstrate that CREW could indeed be an alternative modelling framework, producing results that are consistent with those of the distributed model CATFLOW, and capable of ultimately representing processes actually occurring at the larger scale in a physically sound manner

A review of regionalisation for continuous streamflow simulation

Research on regionalisation in hydrology has been constantly advancing due to the need for prediction of streamflow in ungauged catchments. There are two types of studies that use regionalisation techniques for ungauged catchments. One type estimates parameters of streamflow statistics, flood quantiles in most cases. The other type estimates parameters of a rainfall-runoff model for simulating continuous streamflow or estimates continuous streamflow without using a model. Almost all methods applied to the latter can be applied to the former. This paper reviews all methods that are applied to continuous streamflow estimation for ungauged catchments. We divide them into two general categories: (1) distance-based and (2) regression-based. Methods that fall within each category are reviewed first and followed with a discussion on merits or problems associated with these various methods

Prediction of monsoon rainfall for a mesoscale Indian catchment based on stochastical downscaling and objective circulation patterns

International audienceIn this study a stochastical approach for generating rainfall time series based on objective circulation patterns (CP is applied to the mesoscale Anas catchment in North West India. This CP based approach was developed and successfully applied in the humid and temperate climate of Central Europe. The objective of the study was to find out whether this approach is transferable to a catchment in North West India with a totally different semi arid climate. For the Anas catchment it was possible to identify a CP classification scheme consisting of 12 CPs defined in a window between 5° N 40° E and 35° N 95° E, which explained the space-time variability of observed rainfall at 10 stations in the Anas catchment. Based on the classification scheme, NCAR pressure data from 500 hPa level were classified into a CP time series for the period of 1964?1994, which was in turn used as meteorological forcing for multivariate stochastical rainfall simulations with a daily time step. On the monthly time scale the model performed well. Except for stations Udaigarh and Bhabra the average annual cycle of monthly rainfall and rainy days in a month was matched well. The frequency distributions of monthly rainfall at different stations were also captured well. Correlation coefficients between simulated and observed monthly rainfall were larger than 0.85 at each station. Within a long term simulation of 30 years the model yielded promising predictions for monthly as well as for seasonal rainfall totals, but showed also clear deficiencies in capturing the very extremes and inter-decadal variability of monsoon strength. In this respect, the introduction of additional predictors such as SST anomalies and wind direction classes promised the most substantial model improvements

Modelling of monsoon rainfall for a mesoscale catchment in North-West India I: assessment of objective circulation patterns

International audienceWithin the present study we shed light on the question whether objective circulation patterns (CP) classified from either the 500 HPa or the 700 HPa level may serve as predictors to explain the spatio-temporal variability of monsoon rainfall in the Anas catchment in North West India. To this end we employ a fuzzy ruled based classification approach in combination with a novel objective function as originally proposed by (Stehlik and B?ossy, 2002). After the optimisation we compare the obtained circulation classification schemes for the two pressure levels with respect to their conditional rainfall probabilities and amounts. The classification scheme for the 500 HPa level turns out to be much more suitable to separate dry from wet meteorological conditions during the monsoon season. As is shown during a bootstrap test, the CP conditional rainfall probabilities for the wet and the dry CPs for both pressure levels are highly significant at levels ranging from 95 to 99%. Furthermore, the monthly CP frequencies of the wettest CPs show a significant positive correlation with the variation of the total number of rainy days at the monthly scale. Consistently, the monthly frequencies of the dry CPs exhibit a negative correlation with the number of rainy days at the monthly scale. The present results give clear evidence that the circulation patterns from the 500 HPa level are suitable predictors for explaining spatio- temporal Monsoon variability. A companion paper shows that the CP time series obtained within this study are suitable input into a stochastical rainfall model