Manpower Forecasting and Modelling Replacement Demand: An Overview

Since the 1960s, numerous models have been developed that aim to forecast future developments on the labour market or to provide useful guidelines for achieving the desired development. This paper provides an overview of these manpower forecasting models, from the viewpoint of the modelling of replacement demand, which is the demand for labour due to the outflow of workers because of retirement, disablement, migration etc. or because of job mobility. These manpower forecasting models have focused on the modelling of total employment by economic sector, occupation, and – to a lesser extent – educational category. Less attention has been paid to the modelling of replacement demand and the inflow of newcomers onto the labour market, although some studies in these fields have been published recently.labour market entry and occupational careers;

Modelling Replacement Demand: A Random Coefficient Approach

Replacement demand due to regular and early retirement, disablement, temporary withdrawals of women owing to birth and child raising, et cetera, constitutes an important element of the future demand for newcomers on the labour market. It is, however, often neglected in manpower forecasting studies. In this paper, we develop a flow model with which we can forecast the replacement demand at a detailed level of types of education. The essential element of the model is the determination of the yearly outflow coefficients for each type of education, distinguished by age category and gender. Instead of applying a fixed coefficient approach (Willems and De Grip (1993), we will introduce the random coefficient estimation technique in the model. This technique takes the reliability of the flow coefficients explicitly into account. If a specific flow coefficient is unreliable, the random coefficient estimate will tend towards the mean value for that age category over the types of education. This means that ad hoc corrections based on judgmental forecasting can be considerably reduced. Moreover, it will be shown that the random coefficient estimates of labour market outflow are more reliable than the estimates of the Willems/De Grip model.labour market entry;

Clustering Educational Categories in a Heterogeneous Labour Market

In most countries, the systems of educational classification are based on administrative criteria. For labour market analyses, however, a classification that demarcates an individual''s competences obtained by the courses attended is a better alternative. In this paper we will develop an educational classification that is based on the observed substitution possibilities of workers with different educational backgrounds within similar jobs. As an additional criterion we use the recognisability of the groups distinguished. In addition, we incorporate the criterion of statistical reliability. This results in an educational classification with 113 distinct categories.education, training and the labour market;

Angular momentum losses and the orbital period distribution of cataclysmic variables below the period gap: effects of circumbinary disks

The population synthesis of cataclysmic variables below the period is investigated. A grid of detailed binary evolutionary sequences has been calculated and included in the simulations to take account of additional angular momentum losses beyond that associated with gravitational radiation and mass loss, due to nova outbursts, from the system. As a specific example, we consider the effect of a circumbinary disk to gain insight into the ingredients necessary to reproduce the observed orbital period distribution. The resulting distributions show that the period minimum lies at about 80 minutes with the number of systems monotonically increasing with increasing orbital period to a maximum near 90 minutes. There is no evidence for an accumulation of systems at the period minimum which is a common feature of simulations in which only gravitational radiation losses are considered. The period distribution is found to be fairly flat for orbital periods ranging from about 85 to 120 minutes. The steepness of the lower edge of the period gap can be reproduced, for example, by an input of systems at periods near 2.25 hrs due to a flow of cataclysmic variable binary systems from orbital periods longer than 2.75 hrs. The good agreement with the cumulated distribution function of observed systems within the framework of our model indicates that the angular momentum loss by a circumbinary disk or a mechanism which mimics its features coupled with a weighting factor to account for selection effects in the discovery of such systems and a flow of systems from above the period gap to below the period gap are important ingredients for understanding the overall period distribution of cataclysmic variable binary systems.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Can you enhance exercise-induced fat oxidation with green tea drinking?

Green tea is associated with health benefits. Some studies showed enhanced exercise-induced fat oxidation with intake of capsulated green tea components, primarily with epigallocatechin-3-O-gallate, but that effect was never observed with drinking brewed green tea from unpowdered leaves. In 2013, Hodgson et al. published a review article on green tea intake and exercise-induced fat oxidation. This review will cover some of the green tea studies since 2013 with only one study on the effects of drinking green tea. A study in 2018 showed that drinking a few cups with normal amounts of powdered green tea leaves (i.e. Matcha) enhanced fat oxidation during brisk walking in females. Capsulated intake of green tea components but also regular drinking of normal amounts of Matcha have the potential to provide benefits for health and exercise

Deep level transient spectroscopy study for the development of ion-implanted silicon field-effect transistors for spin-dependent transport

A deep level transient spectroscopy (DLTS) study of defects created by low-fluence, low-energy ion implantation for development of ion-implanted silicon field-effect transistors for spin-dependent transport experiments is presented. Standard annealing strategies are considered to activate the implanted dopants and repair the implantation damage in test metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) capacitors. Fixed oxide charge, interface trapped charge and the role of minority carriers in DLTS are investigated. A furnace anneal at 950 $\rm ^{o}$C was found to activate the dopants but did not repair the implantation damage as efficiently as a 1000 $\rm ^{o}$C rapid thermal anneal. No evidence of bulk traps was observed after either of these anneals. The ion- implanted spin-dependent transport device is shown to have expected characteristics using the processing strategy determined in this study.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figure

<i>Gwynia capsula</i> (Jeffreys, 1859) and other recent brachiopods from submarine caves in Croatia

Recent brachiopods were co1lected in submarine caves along the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea. In a karstic cave at U Privlaka, Losinj Island, the micromorphic brachiopod Gwynia capsula (JEFFREYS, 1859) has been found for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea. In the same cave, the rhynchonellid brachiopod, Tethyrhynchia mediterranea LOGAN, 1994, is also abundant. The geographic distribution of these two species is now considerably extended