Pension scheme redesign and wealth redistribution between the members and sponsor: the USS rule change in October 2011

The redesign of defined benefit pension schemes usually results in a substantial redistribution of wealth between age cohorts of members, pensioners, and the sponsor. This is the first study to quantify the redistributive effects of a rule change by a real world scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) where the sponsor underwrites the pension promise. In October 2011 USS closed its final salary scheme to new members, opened a career average revalued earnings (CARE) section, and moved to ‘cap and share’ contribution rates. We find that the pre-October 2011 scheme was not viable in the long run, while the post-October 2011 scheme is probably viable in the long run, but faces medium term problems. In October 2011 future members of USS lost 65% of their pension wealth (or roughly £100,000 per head), equivalent to a reduction of roughly 11% in their total compensation, while those aged over 57 years lost almost nothing. The riskiness of the pension wealth of future members increased by a third, while the riskiness of the present value of the sponsor’s future contributions reduced by 10%. Finally, the sponsor’s wealth increased by about £32.5 billion, equivalent to a reduction of 26% in their pension costs

The Vampire and the FOOL

This paper presents new features recently implemented in the theorem prover Vampire, namely support for first-order logic with a first class boolean sort (FOOL) and polymorphic arrays. In addition to having a first class boolean sort, FOOL also contains if-then-else and let-in expressions. We argue that presented extensions facilitate reasoning-based program analysis, both by increasing the expressivity of first-order reasoners and by gains in efficiency

Improved bounds in Stein's method for functions of multivariate normal random vectors

In a recent paper, Gaunt 2020 extended Stein's method to limit distributions that can be represented as a function $g:\mathbb{R}^d\rightarrow\mathbb{R}$ of a centered multivariate normal random vector $\Sigma^{1/2}\mathbf{Z}$ with $\mathbf{Z}$ a standard $d$-dimensional multivariate normal random vector and $\Sigma$ a non-negative definite covariance matrix. In this paper, we obtain improved bounds, in the sense of weaker moment conditions, smaller constants and simpler forms, for the case that $g$ has derivatives with polynomial growth. We obtain new non-uniform bounds for the derivatives of the solution of the Stein equation and use these inequalities to obtain general bounds on the distance, measured using smooth test functions, between the distributions of $g(\mathbf{W}_n)$ and $g(\mathbf{Z})$, where $\mathbf{W}_n$ is a standardised sum of random vectors with independent components and $\mathbf{Z}$ is a standard $d$-dimensional multivariate normal random vector. We apply these general bounds to obtain bounds for the chi-square approximation of the family of power divergence statistics (special cases include the Pearson and likelihood ratio statistics), for the case of two cell classifications, that improve on existing results in the literature.Comment: 25 page

The Effect of Vocal Fillers on Credibility, Communication Competence, and Likeability

This study examines the impact of vocal fillers on a person’s perceived likeability, communication competence, professional credibility, and personal credibility. Previous studies have suggested that using filler words or discourse markers may decrease professional credibility and discredit communication competence. However, it is unknown how audience members of different genders will respond to the usage of vocal fillers in comparison to each other. A 2 x 2 factorial experimental design was constructed (N = 145) in which four audio recordings contained four responses to an interview question; the amount of vocal fillers were manipulated (absent or many) and the gender of the speaker in the recording was also manipulated (female or male). Results indicated that the more filler words or discourse markers were used, the less professional and personal credibility was shown, regardless of gender. However, when listening to vocal fillers, although both genders viewed them negatively, males perceived vocal fillers significantly more negatively

Explicitly correlated Gaussian functions with shifted-center and projection techniques in pre-Born-Oppenheimer calculations

Numerical projection methods are elaborated for the calculation of eigenstates of the non-relativistic many-particle Coulomb Hamiltonian with selected rotational and parity quantum numbers employing shifted explicitly correlated Gaussian functions, which are, in general, not eigenfunctions of the total angular momentum and parity operators. The increased computational cost of numerically projecting the basis functions onto the irreducible representations of the three dimensional rotation-inversion group is the price to pay for the increased flexibility of the basis functions. This increased flexibility allowed us to achieve a substantial improvement for the variational upper bound to the Pauli-allowed ground-state energy of the H$_3^+=\{$p$^+,$p$^+,$p$^+,$e$^-,$e$^-\}$ molecular ion treated as an explicit five-particle system. We compare our pre-Born-Oppenheimer result for this molecular ion with rovibrational results including non-adiabatic corrections.Comment: 29 pages, 3 figures, 4 table

A Stein characterisation of the distribution of the product of correlated normal random variables

We obtain a Stein characterisation of the distribution of the product of two correlated normal random variables with non-zero means, and more generally the distribution of the sum of independent copies of such random variables. Our Stein characterisation is shown to naturally generalise a number of other Stein characterisations in the literature. From our Stein characterisation we derive recursive formulas for the moments of the product of two correlated normal random variables, and more generally the sum of independent copies of such random variables, which allows for efficient computation of higher order moments.Comment: 12 page

The C@merata Task at MediaEval 2015: Natural Language Queries on Classical Music Scores

This was the second year of the C@merata task [16,1] which relates natural language processing to music inform ation retrieval. Participants each build a system which takes as input a query and a music score and produces as output one or more ma tching passages in the score. This year, questions were mo re difficult and scores were more complex. Participants were the same as last year and once again CLAS was the best with a Beat F-Score of 0.620

Costs of vitamin D testing and prescribing among children in primary care

Vitamin D has attracted considerable interest in recent years, with a marked increase in diagnosis of vitamin D deficiency seen among children in clinical practice in the UK. The economic implications of this change in diagnostic behaviour have not been explored. We performed a cohort study to examine longitudinal trends in healthcare expenditure arising from vitamin D testing and prescribing for children in primary care in England, using the electronic healthcare records of 722,525 children aged 0–17 years held in The Health Improvement Network database. Combined costs of vitamin D tests and prescriptions increased from £1647 per 100,000 person-years in 2008 (95% CI, £934 to £3007) to £28,913 per 100,000 person-years in 2014 (95% CI, £26,361 to £31,739). The total cost of vitamin D prescriptions and tests for children in primary care at the national level in England in 2014 was estimated to be £4.31 million (95% CI, £2.96–£6.48 million). CONCLUSION: There has been a marked increase in healthcare expenditure on vitamin D tests and prescriptions for children in primary care over the past decade. Future research should explore the drivers for this change in diagnostic behaviour and the reasons prompting investigation of vitamin D status in clinical practice

The C@merata Task at MediaEval 2014: Natural Language Queries on Classical Music Scores

This paper summarises the C@merata task in which participants built systems to answer short natural language queries about classical music scores in MusicXML. The task thus combined natural language processing with music information retrieval. Five groups from four countries submitted eight runs. The best submission scored Beat Precision 0.713 and Beat Recall 0.904