An approach to estimating prognosis using fractional polynomials in metastatic renal carcinoma

We present a prognostic model for metastatic renal cell carcinoma based on fractional polynomials. We retrospectively analysed 425 metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients treated with subcutaneous recombinant cytokine-based home therapies in consecutive trials. In our approach, we categorised a continuous prognostic index produced by the multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) algorithm, using a strategy in which continuous predictors are kept continuous. The MFP algorithm selected five prognostic factors as significant at the 5% level in a multivariable model: lymph node metastases, liver metastases, bone metastases, age, C-reactive protein and neutrophils. The MFP model allowed us to divide patients into four risk groups achieving median overall survivals of 38 months (low risk), 23 months (low intermediate risk), 15 months (high intermediate risk) and 5.6 months (high risk). Our approach, based on categorising a continuous prognostic index produced by the MFP algorithm, allowed more flexibility in the determination of risk groups than traditional approaches

Metastatic renal carcinoma comprehensive prognostic system

The purpose of the study was to identify a comprehensive prognostic system of pretreatment clinical parameters in 425 patients (pts) with metastatic renal-cell carcinoma treated with different subcutaneous (s.c.) recombinant cytokine-based home therapies in consecutive trials. Treatment consisted of (A) s.c. interferon-α2a (INF-α), s.c. interleukin-2 (IL-2) (n=102 pts), (B) s.c. IFN-α2a, s.c. IL-2, and i.v. 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) (n=235 pts) or (C) s.c. IFN-α2a, s.c. IL-2, and i.v. 5-FU combined with p.o. 13-cis-retinoic acid (13cRA) (n=88 pts). Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, log-rank statistics, and Cox regression analysis were employed to identify risk factors and to create a multiple risk factor model. The following pretreatment risk factors were identified by univariate analysis: (1) three and more metastatic sites, (2) presence of liver, lymph node or bone metastases, (3) neutrophil count ⩾6500 cells μl−1, (4) serum lactate dehydrogenase level (LDH) ⩾220 U l−1, and (5) serum C-reactive protein level (CRP) ⩾11 mg l−1. Cox regression analysis with forward stepwise variable selection identified neutrophil count as the major prognostic factor (hazard ratio=1.9, P<0.001), while serum levels of LDH and CRP, time between diagnosis of tumour and onset of metastatic disease, number of metastatic sites, and bone metastases were significant but somewhat less important prognostic variables within the multiple risk factor model (hazard ratio ⩽1.5). Patients were assigned to one of the three risk groups according to cumulative risk defined as the sum of simplified risk s.c.ores for six pretreatment variables. Low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients achieved a median overall survival of 32+ months (95% CI 24, 43; 5-year survival of 27%), 18+ months (95% CI 15, 20; 5-year survival of 11%), and 8+ months (95% CI 6, 10; 5-year survival of 5%), respectively. These prognostic categories are helpful both in individual patient care and in the assessment of patients entering prospective clinical trials

Interleukin 10 (IL-10): an immunosuppressive factor and independent predictor in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma

Interleukin 10 (IL-10) is an immunosuppressive factor and has been detected in tumour cell cultures of renal cell carcinoma and of malignant melanoma. IL-10 has been described as a cytokine of the Th2 response; it is able to suppress antigen-presenting cells (APCs) and may lead to down-regulation of HLA class I and II molecules on dendritic cells and to anergy of T-lymphocytes. We evaluated pretreatment serum levels of soluble IL-10 and various clinical parameters to determine their prognostic value in 80 advanced renal cell carcinoma patients seen at our institution between May 1990 and April 1996. For statistical evaluation we used both univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. An elevated pretreatment serum level of IL-10 was a statistically independent predictor of unfavourable outcome (P < 0.0028), in addition to the well-known clinical and biochemical risk factors. These data support risk stratification for future therapeutic trials and identify a predictor which needs to be validated in prospective studies and may potentially influence decision making in palliative management of patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. These data also suggest a potential role of IL-10 in the development of advanced renal cell carcinoma and in the future design of therapeutic strategies. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Interleukin-2/interferon-α2a/13-retinoic acid-based chemoimmunotherapy in advanced renal cell carcinoma: results of a prospectively randomised trial of the German Cooperative Renal Carcinoma Chemoimmunotherapy Group (DGCIN)

We performed a prospectively randomised clinical trial to compare the efficacy of four subcutaneous interleukin-2-(sc-IL-2) and sc interferon-α2a (sc-IFN-α2a)-based outpatient regimens in 379 patients with progressive metastatic renal cell carcinoma. Patients with lung metastases, an erythrocyte sedimentation rate ⩽70 mm h−1 and neutrophil counts ⩽6000 μl−1 (group I) were randomised to arm A: sc-IL-2, sc-IFN-α2a, peroral 13-cis-retinoic acid (po-13cRA) (n=78), or arm B: arm A plus inhaled-IL-2 (n=65). All others (group II) were randomised to arm C: arm A plus intravenous 5-fluorouracil (iv-5-FU) (n=116), or arm D: arm A plus po-Capecitabine (n=120). Median overall survival (OS) was 22 months (arm A; 3-year OS: 29.7%) and 18 months (arm B; 3-year OS: 29.2%) in group I, and 18 months (arm C; 3-year OS: 25.7%) and 16 months (arm D; 3-year OS: 32.6%) in group II. There were no statistically significant differences in OS, progression-free survival, and objective response between arms A and B, and between arms C and D, respectively. Given the known therapeutic efficacy of sc-IL-2/sc-INF-α2a/po-13cRA-based outpatient chemoimmunotherapies, our results did not establish survival advantages in favour of po-Capecitabine vs iv-5-FU, and in favour of short-term inhaled-IL-2 in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma receiving systemic cytokines