Keynote Lecture – The Interplay of Multiple Hazards and Urban Development: The context of Istanbul

Tomorrow’s Cities is the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) Urban Disaster Risk Hub – an interdisciplinary research hub with the aim to catalyse a transition from crisis management to multi-hazard risk-informed and inclusive planning in four cities in low-and-middle income countries. Istanbul in Turkey is one of the four cities investigated. It is one of the largest urban agglomerations in Europe where more than 15 million people reside in more than 1 million buildings. Considering that the population was 4.75 million in 1980, Istanbul’s urban sprawl was inevitable. Due to an imbalance between the population growth and housing supply, Istanbul’s urbanization was shaped by illegal construction processes producing the gecekondus in almost every part of the city (Gencer and Mentese, 2016). Unplanned urban expansion was so rapid that the urban master plan of 1980, which set the limits and strategies for urban development, became completely invalid by 1989 (Tapan, 1998). This situation led to the development of a new urban master plan in 1994 that included geoscientific analysis, and which highlighted the possibility of losses due to an earthquake on the segments of the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Sea. Uncontrolled and unplanned development continued in Istanbul until 1999 when two major earthquakes hit the region causing at least 18.000 deaths and $16 billion economic loss. These events changed the authorities’ perspective to earthquake risk and its mitigation. As a result, the 1998 earthquake resistant design code (published one year before the 1999 earthquakes) was widely embraced and implemented. Furthermore, several urban transformation projects have taken place in the last 20 years for reducing disaster risk. These have had varied success, with research to date showing that areas selected for urban transformation were often chosen on the basis of land value rather than hazard risk, and that a pro-poor approach is missing. Despite these efforts, Istanbul’s earthquake risk remains high. Furthermore, recent urban development plans are seeing the city expand into undeveloped lands to the west, increasing exposure to new hazards, namely flash flooding and landslides. The combined impact of these hazards is not evenly distributed, and the associated risks are heightened by poor infrastructural resilience and social vulnerabilities. Therefore, it is crucial to integrate different types of hazards and risks into the urban development context for future scenarios, so that a physically and socio-economically safer development that prioritizes the wellbeing of local communities can be facilitated. This presentation summarises the research conducted in Istanbul over the first 18 months of the Tomorrow’s Cities Project by a consortium of Turkish and UK researchers. This research spans the better characterisation of earthquake and landslide hazards, development of analysis methods for predicting the response of case study buildings to multiple hazards and a Bayesian network based approach for assessing road infrastructure resilience under multiple hazard scenarios. Furthermore, plans for building a Resilient Urban Development Decision Support Environment (RUD-DSE) for communicating the relevance of this research on future urban planning is described

Turkish popular presidential elections: deepening legitimacy issues and looming regime change

This paper examines the politics of presidential elections in Turkey with particular reference to the 10 August 2014 presidential elections. It starts by scrutinising the change in the presidential election system from parliamentary to direct popular vote. It then probes the implementation of the new election rules, candidate selection, and the conduct of the campaign, followed by analysis of the election results and their influence on the Turkish record of democratisation. The paper concludes that the move to a partisan president elected by popular vote entails democratic dangers if the new incumbent does not abide by his or her constitutional role and attempts to intervene in government policy

Local elections and the Turkish voter: looking for the determinants of party choice

On 30 March 2014 Turkish voters elected their local (city) councillors. Their party preferences seem to indicate considerable correspondence with the national vote choices. So, do voters’ choices in local elections differ from voters’ party preferences at the national legislative elections? Based on previous research findings on Turkish voting behaviour, a list of hypotheses was compiled and tested, using binary logistic regression analyses and survey data collected immediately prior to the 2009 and 2014 local elections. The main findings are that the party lists are supported at the ballot boxes on the basis of the voters’ party identification, ideological positions, and economic (dis)satisfaction, whether in national or local elections

Geçmişten günümüze Saraçoğlu Mahallesi ve bu mahallenin Türk mimarisi için önemi

Ankara : İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent Üniversitesi İktisadi, İdari ve Sosyal Bilimler Fakültesi, Tarih Bölümü, 2013.This work is a student project of the The Department of History, Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University.by Elif Huntürk.Huntürk, Elif. HIST 200-10HUNTÜRK HIST 200-10/4 2012-1

Public confidence in government: empirical implications from a developing democracy

This article explores the determinants of confidence in the Turkish government. We question whether confidence-related questions in mass surveys tap specific support for the incumbent government or tap diffuse support for government as a democratic institution. For this purpose, sociocultural, performance, and party explanations are tested. Four waves of the World Values Survey for Turkey are used as the data set. The article finds that performance and party-based explanations are the most relevant. Turkish citizens place greater emphasis on 'government as the incumbent' rather than on 'government as a democratic institution'. The analysis also reveals the changing influences of both performance and party-based explanations across time, which points to the significance of context. Through a cross-country analysis, the viability of the findings in the Turkish case are evaluated against those of other developing democracies